Did you know that Logan Thomas finished as the TE3 in PPR fantasy football formats last season? It has taken Thomas multiple seasons to develop into a viable NFL tight end, and now Washington has a legitimate quarterback under center this season in Ryan Fitzpatrick. If Thomas builds on the positive momentum from 2020, he could be rewarded with a career-defining payday next offseason. This article will provide you Thomas’ fantasy outlook and projection as well as his ADP as you prepare for drafts this summer.
Logan Thomas’ fantasy outlook for 2021
Let’s briefly discuss Thomas’ 2020 season before providing an outlook for 2021. Last year, Thomas caught 72 of 110 targets for 670 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns on 74% of offensive snaps. He finished as a TE1 in 56% of his games in PPR formats.
Furthermore, Thomas finished the season strong, totaling between 63 and 101 receiving yards in four of his last six games. That includes the Wild Card game against the Tampa Bay Buccanneers, where he caught 5 of 9 targets for 74 yards. What’s interesting is that he’s positioned for an even better 2021 season.
Consecutive seasons of continuity
Thomas will play in the same offense for a second season for the first time in his NFL career. He won’t have to spend time learning a new playbook and can instead use that additional time studying other tight ends like George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Darren Waller. He can also refer to film from the previous season to analyze how defenses covered him. All of these things will allow Thomas to make adjustments to his overall game.
Thomas may also have the opportunity to run more downfield routes inside Norv and Scott Turner’s offense this season. His red-zone targets and touchdown totals have an excellent chance to increase in 2021.
Unbeknownst to some, Thomas finished third in receptions and receiving yards and second in targets in 2020.
The only other tight end with more receptions inside the 20-yard line last season than Thomas (15) was Waller (19). The offseason additions could also alleviate some of the defensive pressure on him.
Washington has playmakers at every position
Newly acquired Curtis Samuel is another offensive weapon that Washington can leverage as a receiver and as a runner. He finished as a WR2 or better in 47% of his active games last season in PPR formats. In addition, Samuel will pair well with Washington’s No.1 receiver Terry McLaurin.
The soon-to-be third-year receiver has transcended inconsistent QB play to finish as a WR2 or better in 45% of games. And yet, McLaurin hasn’t reached his full potential thus far in his career. That could change in 2021, however, with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center.
Fitzpatrick will have playmakers at every position. Alongside Samuel, Washington signed slot receiver Adam Humphries in free agency and selected Dyami Brown in Round 3 of the NFL Draft. Running back Antonio Gibson is also expected to have a larger role.
This opens up the door even more for Thomas, in my opinion. Fitzpatrick has averaged nearly 10 yards per pass attempt when throwing to tight ends over the last two years. Thomas, meanwhile, averaged a healthy 7 air yards per target in 2020. For comparison, Kelce averaged 8 while Waller averaged 7.8. For those new to the term, air yards indicate how far a pass travels in the air before it is caught.
Fantasy projection
Given the information we have around Thomas and his fantasy outlook in Washington, he projects for around 100 targets, 70 receptions, and a little over 750 receiving yards in 2021. Moreover, he could score as many as 8 touchdowns. Thomas and Samuel will likely see a similar number of targets in 2021, while McLaurin will lead Washington in that statistical area. Thus, Thomas can be viewed as a mid-range TE1 in PPR formats.
Logan Thomas’ ADP
Thomas is readily available in the eighth round of fantasy drafts when you review redraft ADP data from Fleaflicker, where his ADP is 89.8. This trend is similar in pay-to-play fantasy formats, such as the National Fantasy Championship. There, Thomas has an ADP of 91.56. Additionally, his ADP in haf-PPR formats on Sleeper is 94.8.
Should you draft Thomas at this ADP in 2021?
My short answer is yes. Thomas will provide you a solid return on investment, taking into his ADP. My preference is not to address the tight end position during the middle rounds of a fantasy draft. Kelce, Kittle, and Waller are my preferred targets early in drafts. Three intriguing options available later in drafts are Mike Gesicki, Irv Smith Jr., and Adam Trautman.
