The Detroit Lions will travel to take on the Houston Texans in Week 10. Here’s our early pick and prediction for this matchup, with insights from our PR+ metric, which has guided us to a 16-9 record on plays over the last three weeks.
If you’re looking for other games, check out our Early Week 10 Picks and Predictions for the entire slate.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Nov. 3, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
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Detroit Lions (-4.5, 48.5) at Houston Texans
The Houston Texans haven’t been as good as their 6-3 record would indicate, ranking 23rd on offense and 10th on defense this year. The Texans have also played just the 19th-toughest schedule to date, so they haven’t been that heavily tested.
In contrast, the Detroit Lions are fourth offensively and seventh defensively and are the clearly superior team of these two — 4.5 points doesn’t adequately reflect that, even with the Texans at home.
This is an easy play to take the Lions laying the points, but the total is a no-play as it is right in the area where we would project this game to finish.
Prediction: Lions 27, Texans 20
Pick: Lions -4.5
Lions at Texans Game Stats and Insights
Detroit Lions
Team: The Lions’ +110 point differential is fourth-best through eight games in franchise history (their best since posting a +144 margin in 1954).
QB: Jared Goff ranks first or second in the league in completion percentage, yards per pass, and passer rating – he faces a defense this week that has allowed a touchdown on a league-high 6.9% of passes.
Offense: The Lions turn the ball over just 0.63 times per game, which is fueling their league-best turnover margin (+1.38 per game).
Defense: The Lions are one of four defenses to rank in the top 10 in both blitz and pressure rate (Broncos, Browns, and Chiefs).
Fantasy: Jahmyr Gibbs is producing despite flashing the versatility we thought he’d need next to David Montgomery – the second-year back has failed to catch multiple passes in four of his past six games.
Betting: The Lions have covered eight of their past nine indoor games, including three road games.
Houston Texans
Team: The Texans have converted just five of 14 red zone trips (35.7%) into touchdowns over their past three games, down from their 75% rate through Week 6 (12-of-16).
QB: C.J. Stroud will likely get Nico Collins back this week, a return that can’t come soon enough.
Hear me out
Top Row: Stroud's season numbers
Row 2: With Collins on the field
Row 3: Without Collins on the fieldWhat if HOU finishes 13-4 (7-1 ROS)?
"Moment" games remain with DET, KC, BALHis value has been proven over the last month. What if he shows out? pic.twitter.com/sIoEqh3HuM
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) November 1, 2024
Offense: C.J. Stroud’s 17-game pace this season in games started by Nico Collins is 4,709 yards, a far cry from the version of him that we’ve seen over the past month (under 200 passing yards in three of four games and just one touchdown toss over his past three).
Defense: The Texans have the third-worst red zone defense in the NFL, allowing a touchdown on 69.6% of opponent trips (league average: 56.7%).
Fantasy: Joe Mixon appears to be aging in reverse.
- Week 6 at New England Patriots: 15 touches, 75.4% production over expectation
- Week 7 at Green Bay Packers: 27 touches, 21.3% production over expectation
- Week 8 vs. Indianapolis Colts: 29 touches, 9.1% production over expectation
- Week 9 at New York Jets: 24 touches, 10.4% production over expectation
He’s found paydirt in all four of those games. He’s a 20-plus yard rush in all four of those games. He’s cleared 100 rushing yards in all four of those games.
Betting: Five straight Texan home games (and eight of the past nine) have gone under the total.