The Miami Dolphins can’t make the playoffs in the next two weeks, but they can essentially eliminate themselves from consideration if they lose to either the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday or New England Patriots in Week 12.
The easiest two-game stretch remaining on Miami’s schedule begins on Sunday when the 3-6 Dolphins host the 2-7 Raiders. Here’s our Raiders vs. Dolphins game preview, with helpful advanced stats courtesy of TruMedia.
Las Vegas Raiders-Miami Dolphins Game Preview
Thanks to their Week 10 win over the Los Angeles Rams, the Dolphins enter the weekend with a 22.9% chance to make the playoffs.
But those odds would plummet with a loss to a Raiders team that has dropped five straight and is starting one of the worst quarterbacks in professional football.
The Raiders are sticking with Gardner Minshew II this week even though he’s 30th in QB+ (60.1, D- grade) and QBR (37.7), and 28th in EPA+CPOE (.038). Vegas as a team averages 3.5 yards per carry and has scored just 16 offensive touchdowns on the year.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, have scored 77 points in the three games since Tua Tagovailoa has returned from injury.
That’s why they were seven-point home favorites with a -325 moneyline and an over/under of 44 as of Friday, Nov. 15. The Raiders’ moneyline was +260 entering the weekend.
The betting public loves Miami. Seven of 10 bettors (and 82% of the money) laid the points.
7 Raiders-Dolphins Stats From TruMedia
Stat: Tagovailoa has thrown at least 28 passes and completed at least 71% of his attempts in all three of his games back from the concussion. Patrick Mahomes is the only other player to string together three games like that since the beginning of 2023.
Analysis: Tagovailoa has been among the NFL’s best quarterbacks this year according to QB+ because he’s made it happen at the most important times. The Dolphins have had multiple red-zone touchdowns in all three games since Tagovailoa’s return (they had zero such games through Week 7).
Stat: The Raiders have a -14 turnover differential, their worst mark through nine games since 2004 (-15).
Analysis: It’ll be an unstoppable force-immovable object situation at Hard Rock. The Dolphins in Week 11 forced multiple turnovers for just the second time this season. They have the fifth-fewest takeaways (eight) of any NFL team.
Stat: In his last two starts, Minshew is 24-of-30 when not pressured (80%, though none of those passes resulted in a touchdown).
Analysis: The Dolphins will try to turn up the heat on Minshew. If they do, it’ll probably mean Chop Robinson continues his upward trajectory. He brought pressure on 20.7% of L.A.’s dropbacks.
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Stat: Only once this season has Las Vegas scored more than two offensive touchdowns in a game (Week 2 vs. Carolina Panthers).
Analysis: The Dolphins certainly caught a scheduling break given their dicey injury situation in the secondary. Kendall Fuller (concussion) is out and Jalen Ramsey is dealing with a knee issue.
Stat: In their past two games, the Raiders have allowed 20 third-down conversions (in their first seven games total: 24).
Analysis: This is probably the scariest matchup of them all for Las Vegas. Tagovailoa is first in third-down completion percentage (70.5%) among quarterbacks with 40 or more such dropbacks.
Stat: In Weeks 1-3, Miami allowed 58 first-half points. In their six games since, they’ve coughed up just 38 first-half points.
Analysis: Certainly, that’s a positive, but the flip side is they have been generous to a fault after halftime. In the four games since their bye, the Dolphins have allowed 67 second-half points with a total defensive EPA of -24.2.
Stat: Based on look-ahead lines, the Dolphins are expected to have a +5-point differential for the remainder of the season.
Analysis: Will that be enough to make the playoffs? Probably not. The Dolphins need to win at least six more games to get in.
Raiders vs. Dolphins Predictions
- David Bearman (96-55 on the season): Dolphins
- Adam Beasley (97-54): Dolphins
- Anthony DiBona (94-57): Dolphins
- Mike Gambardella (95-53): Dolphins
- Dakota Randall (89-62): Raiders
- Dallas Robinson (95-56): Dolphins
- Kyle Soppe (102-49): Dolphins
- Dan Tomaro (93-58): Dolphins
- Mike Wobschall (96-41): Dolphins
Full Week 11 picks from PFN are available here.