Las Vegas Raiders record prediction 2022: Odds, props, and picks

We examine the Las Vegas Raiders' current record prediction, projected win totals, prop bets, and odds to win the division, AFC, and Super Bowl in 2023. 

The Las Vegas Raiders were one of the surprises of the 2021 season as they won an AFC Wild Card berth. After going 10-7 despite replacing head coach Jon Gruden midway through the year, the Raiders went all-in this offseason. New head coach Josh McDaniels is hoping to push the Raiders into Super Bowl contention.

Let’s examine the Raiders’ current record prediction, their projected win totals, any intriguing prop bets involving the franchise, and their odds to win the division, conference, and Super Bowl in 2023.

All odds are from Caesars sportsbook unless otherwise stated and are correct as of July 25 at 12:00 p.m. ET. 

Las Vegas Raiders record prediction 2022

Following the release of the NFL schedule, Caesars has provided odds and spreads for all of the Raiders’ 2022 regular-season matchups. Based on those numbers, the Raiders are projected as favorites in eight games, underdogs in six, and pushes in three. If the season matches those predictions, the Raiders will finish with an 8-6-3 record following Week 18 of the 2022 season.

The 2021 Raiders were able to prove many pundits incorrect as they made a Wild Card appearance against the Cincinnati Bengals. Ripping off four wins to end the regular season against playoff-caliber foes went a long way in accomplishing the unlikely. With the AFC West going full arms race this offseason, there’s a slim margin for error for each team.

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Oddsmakers viewed the Raiders similarly last year, putting their line total at 8. The Raiders easily cleared this total by two wins. However, the Denver Broncos have slid in front of the Raiders as the team favored to finish third in the West. It’s possible the Raiders could finish the year with a losing record despite being quite good.

Schedule makers did Vegas no favors. Prior to their Week 6 bye, the Raiders face the Los Angeles Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, Tennessee Titans, Broncos, and Kansas City Chiefs. They don’t play at home in back-to-back weeks until the final two games of the year.

Raiders odds, picks, and props

Now we know the sportsbooks prediction for the Raiders on a week-by-week basis. Let’s take a look at their season-long odds for win totals, the division, the conference, and the Super Bowl.

  • Raiders win total: 8.5 (over -120, under +100)
  • Raiders to make the playoffs: Yes (+160)
  • AFC West winner: +650
  • AFC winner: 20-to-1
  • Super Bowl winner: 40-to-1

The Raiders should be a team with a 10-win line in any other division. But the AFC West is loaded with quality teams from top to bottom. Vegas got significantly better on paper with Chandler Jones, Davante Adams, and McDaniels added, but their win total doesn’t reflect that leap.

McDaniels’ first season with Vegas will be fascinating. His burnout in Denver was 14 years ago but left a lasting impact on his legacy. His infamous spurn of the Colts left another sour taste in people’s mouths, but there’s no questioning McDaniels’ ability to design and call plays for an offense.

The offensive firepower around veteran quarterback Derek Carr is impressive. The Raiders spent $292.5 million on Carr, Adams, and Hunter Renfrow this offseason. An extension should be coming for former All-Pro Darren Waller soon as well.

New defensive coordinator Patrick Graham was a solid hire for McDaniels. Graham inherited an impressive front seven filled with talent. But he needs to work on a young secondary with major question marks at both cornerback spots. If the Raiders’ secondary can be average or better, this team will overachieve.

Raiders MVP odds and player props

There are a ton of Raiders odds and player props available to us on this star-laden team. Having a plethora of household names creates opportunities for us to get involved in their prop market. The hard part is figuring out the best plays.

Remember that for major awards, winners always come from situations that blend certain achievements. An MVP, Player of the Year, or Coach of the Year must overperform based on their expectations and have the team do well. They must also have a good narrative to their breakout, or voters may opt for the media sweetheart with the better story.

  • MVP
    Derek Carr +2800
  • Offensive Player of the Year
    Davante Adams +1800
  • Defensive Player of the Year
    Maxx Crosby +2800
  • Derek Carr regular-season passing yards
    Over/Under 4,550.5 (Over +105, Under -125)
  • Josh Jacobs regular-season rushing yards
    Over/Under 705.5 (-115)
  • Davante Adams regular-season receiving yards
    Over/Under 1,200.5 (-115)
  • Chandler Jones regular-season sacks
    Over/Under 11.25 (Over +100, Under -130)
  • Coach of the Year
    Josh McDaniels +1800

Right off the bat, it’s important to note how McDaniels handles his offenses. The Raiders threw the ball at the fourth-highest rate in 2021. That will not happen again in 2022 despite their immense receiving talent, so be cognizant when projecting Carr’s numbers for next year.

A dip in production from Carr would all but take out his already low MVP odds. Carr is an above-average talent at his position but won’t have the production or team success needed to win the award. That lack of volume will then hurt Adams’ chances at winning OPOY despite his immaculate production in Green Bay.

Raiders 2022 picks

  • Carr under 4,550.5 passing yards: -125
  • Jacobs under 750.5 rushing yards: -115
  • Adams over 1,200.5 receiving yards: -115
  • Raiders over 8.5 wins: -120
  • Jones under 11.25 sacks: -130

The difficulty of the Raiders’ schedule puts a damper on this team’s outlook. Few teams have as exciting a core of stardom on either side of the ball. I can’t wait to see Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones chase after quarterbacks or for the Raiders’ passing attack to take flight.

Even with the tough schedule, I like the Raiders to just barely clear the over of their win total. Vegas has a favorable set of games after their bye week and play five of their final seven contests at home. These are tipping points that can swing their season.

I’ll be fading several key player props, though. McDaniels’ presence means Carr will throw less often. Carr had a career-high 4,804 yards last year and never had more than 4,103 in any previous season. It’d be surprising to see him close to the 4,550.5 line we’ve been given if McDaniels runs a balanced attack as we expect.

Josh Jacobs will get less of the available touches in his contract year. Expect more of a committee approach in the backfield, especially since the Raiders loaded up behind him. Jacobs is competing with Kenyan Drake, Brandon Bolden, Zamir White, and Brittain Brown. Just like the running back situation was in New England under McDaniels, I don’t want any part of rooting for touches in this backfield.

I do like Adams’ prop for over 1,200 yards, though. While Carr may throw less, Adams is still a one-of-a-kind receiver. The Raiders have only three significant pass catchers, so I expect each to get the vast majority of targets. Adams may see fewer overall passes but a higher per-catch average. 1,200 is a reasonable number to expect if he plays a full season.

Another under I like is Jones’ sacks. Jones is not as good as Crosby, but the two will feed off each other. I expect both to have great years, but Jones appeared to top off last year with 10.5 sacks. It’s uncommon to see a secondary rusher have 11.5 sacks or more in a season, so this is a fade for me.

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