The Las Vegas Raiders are still alive in the AFC playoff picture entering Week 17, which probably isn’t something even the most diehard members of Raider Nation believed was possible when the club fired head coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler in November.
But Las Vegas has posted a 4-3 mark under interim head coach Antonio Pierce and is 7-8 heading into Sunday’s game against the Indianapolis Colts. The Raiders still have a shot at the postseason, but their path is admittedly narrow.
Las Vegas Raiders Playoff Chances | Week 17 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 31 and 7:45 a.m. before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
The Las Vegas Raiders have been eliminated from the playoffs in 2023.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Colts (9-7) defeated Raiders (7-9)
Texans (9-7) defeated Titans (5-11)
Jaguars (9-7) defeated Panthers (2-14)
Bills (10-6) defeated Patriots (4-12)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Raiders entering Week 17. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Las Vegas Raiders’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios Entering Week 17?
How dire are the Raiders’ playoff hopes? Pro Football Network’s simulations give Las Vegas roughly an 11% chance of entering the dance. Entry is possible, but it won’t be easy.
The sheer number of teams involved in the AFC Wild Card race is probably the Raiders’ most significant obstacle. The Cleveland Browns already have 11 wins and have secured a playoff berth, while the Buffalo Bills are at nine victories.
The Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Cincinnati Bengals all have eight wins, while the Denver Broncos are tied with the Raiders at 7-8.
First and foremost, Las Vegas must win out, defeating the Colts in Week 17 and the Broncos in Week 18. It’s difficult to imagine the Raiders entering the playoffs with anything worse than a 9-8 record.
The cleanest way for Las Vegas to get into the postseason is to win the AFC West. That would require winning out and hoping the Kansas City Chiefs lose to the Bengals on Sunday and the Easton Stick-led Los Angeles Chargers to close the season.
It’s an unlikely set of results. But if it happens, the 9-8 Raiders would win the AFC West over the 9-8 Chiefs thanks to their superior record inside the division (4-2 vs. 3-3).
MORE: Las Vegas Raiders Depth Chart
In terms of the Wild Card picture, things quickly become complicated because of the mass of playoff tiebreakers that could come into play.
The Raiders should be hoping for teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, and Miami Dolphins to keep winning and knock back other Wild Card hopefuls in the process.
Las Vegas can get to nine wins, but as things stand, five teams in the race for the final two playoff spots could get to either 10 or 11 wins.
In terms of head-to-head advantages, the Raiders have a win over the Broncos, and that’s about it. They could gain a critical tiebreaker over the Colts by defeating them on Sunday. Meanwhile, Vegas has losses to the Bills and Steelers.
Finishing 2-0 would also take the Raiders to 7-5 within the conference. While it’s not the strongest record, it would give the Raiders a fighting chance in multi-team tiebreakers. Most other AFC Wild Card contenders have already lost four or five games.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!Â
