One of the top quarterbacks in the NFL and fantasy football, Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray projects to be an early pick once again as his 2022 fantasy outlook rivals the top players in the game. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Murray’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Kyler Murray’s fantasy outlook for 2022
In a world ruled by dynamic QBs, Murray is near the top as he brings both a cannon for an arm and electric legs. After a QB7 finish as a rookie and the overall QB2 in 2020, Murray was the QB10 in 2021.
Playing in 14 games, he completed 69% of his passes (333 of 481) for 3,787 yards with 24 TDs to 10 interceptions. Additionally, he added 423 yards (fourth-most) and five scores on 88 rushes. Among QBs who started at least six games, Murray’s 30.2 yards per game was fourth-most.
Amongst his peers, this was fantastic. However, it was a substantial decrease from his previous two years. As a rookie, Murray rushed 93 times for 544 yards, but in 2020 it was 133 for 819 yards and 11 TDs. While his passing numbers have been within 100 yards in all three years, Murray’s fantasy ceiling comes from his legs.
Part of this was schematic, where Murray was opting to run less, but injuries played a factor as well. A Grade 2 ankle sprain suffered in early October put a quick damper on his capabilities, and Murray did not look like himself.
Injuries have been an unfortunate trend for Kyler Murray
Unfortunately, this has been a bit of a trend for Murray. While he has only missed three games in his career, he has played dinged up far too often. As a rookie, it was a hip strain. In Year 2, Murray suffered an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder and a pulled hamstring.
This shows up in Murray’s splits, where he tends not to produce as highly for fantasy over the second half of the season. In Weeks 1-8 (23 games), Murray averages 34.78 attempts, 265.6 yards, 2.17 total touchdowns, and 25.37 points. In Weeks 9 through the end of the season (23 games), he averaged 33.87 attempts, 233.4 yards, 1.78 total TDs, and 22.2 points.
On a full-season pace, that’s nearly 600 yards, seven scores, and the difference from 431 fantasy points to 378 fantasy points — quite a difference.
Murray is a QB1, but likely not the QB1
Last season, the debate was primarily between Patrick Mahomes and Murray for the overall QB1 in fantasy. That’s not the case this season for either QB. It’s Josh Allen. Yet, both Murray and Mahomes are QB1s this year. However, Murray is not as safe as we want to believe.
Keep him healthy, and he is sensational. Murray has averaged 23.7 fantasy points per game over his career, with 57% of those games inside the top 12. Since 2020, it’s 25.5 PPR/game with 63% as a QB1 and 90% as a QB2 or better. He is legit.
But for Murray to rival the top three or even the top spot on the podium, his rushing upside needs to carry the load. I’m not saying he needs to hit 800 yards again. But if Murray throws for under 4,000 yards and 27 TDs for a fourth straight season, Murray could disappoint those who take him too early. I’m all in at the right value as he will be a QB1 barring injury. I simply have my concerns as well.
How the Cardinals’ depth chart impacts Murray’s fantasy projection for the season
Like seemingly all other NFL teams, the Cardinals were busy this offseason. For Arizona, their move came on draft day. It was one of the most significant out-of-the-blue moves we’ve seen in some time. It’s hard to keep a secret in today’s age when every reporter is looking for the latest scoop. A few months in the making, the Cardinals traded for Murray’s former Oklahoma Sooner teammate Marquise Brown from the Baltimore Ravens.
When these two last played together, Brown had 1,318 yards and 10 TDs on 75 receptions, with Murray taking home the Heisman at the end of the year. Brown is coming off a breakout of his own, posting a career-best 91 receptions on 145 targets for 1,008 yards and six touchdowns. A few days later, we all found out how significant of a move this was.
The NFL handed down a six-game suspension on DeAndre Hopkins for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drug policy. This means the earliest Hopkins can return is Week 7 at home against the New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football. Nothing like coming back and having to face Marshon Lattimore on prime time.
Unsurprisingly, Murray has been a different QB without Hopkins
For Murray, this is significant. In the first eight games with Hopkins last year, Murray was the QB6 completing 72.6% of his passes while averaging 284.5 ypg and 8.8 ypa. After Week 9, with Hopkins banged up, Murray was the QB16 with a 65.3% completion rate, 6.7 ypa, and 251.8 ypg.
Yes, he was also dealing with his own injury, but this trend tracks. In games with Hopkins (26), Murray averages 26.3 PPR/game and 259.6 yards on 33.7 attempts (7.6 YPA). Without him (four games), those drop to 20.96 PPR/game, 251.2 yards, and 6.0 ypa on 40 attempts.
A.J. Green, Rondale Moore, and Zach Ertz will certainly contribute, but they’re not Hopkins. Also, Christian Kirk is no longer on the team to step up. Add in one of the more difficult schedules — including opening the season against the Chiefs, Raiders, and Rams — and Murray needs to get in rhythm with Brown quickly. Otherwise, there is a genuine risk that he starts the season alarmingly slow for fantasy managers.
Murray’s ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 59, Murray is coming off the boards as the QB5 in 1QB formats at the moment, placing him at the end of the fifth round in 12-team fantasy leagues. In Superflex leagues, he is a top-eight pick and will not escape the first round.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football rankings, Murray is a noticeable chunk lower as the QB7 and the 79th overall ranked player. That’s because, as a general rule, those of us who contribute to rankings tend to air more on the late-round QB style of drafting, meaning QBs can slide just a bit. While PFN’s rankings are a consensus, that is nearly identical to where I have Murray as my QB6 and 78th player overall.
In most leagues, I’m unlikely to draft Murray as I rarely select one early. Instead, I tend to be on the later side in 1QB leagues as you’ll still be able to draft someone like Russell Wilson, Trey Lance, Matthew Stafford, or Aaron Rodgers, and be perfectly happy.
Every draft is different when it comes to QBs and how early they start to come off the board. In some, they fly off the board like pancakes at IHOP. In others, they’ll slide and end up an even better value.
I generally let the draft board dictate how aggressive I need to be at this position. If you see QBs begin to go, where Murray is going at his position is a solid value for fantasy. Just make sure he stays off Call of Duty and sticks to the playbook when the new game comes out in November.
