Between his ACL recovery and the Arizona Cardinals‘ poor season, Kyler Murray’s performance last season seems to have been overlooked.
Now fully recovered, is Murray poised to remind everyone just how good he can be, making him a prime target in the middle rounds of fantasy football drafts?
Kyler Murray’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
In many leagues, Murray went undrafted last season. Of course, it had nothing to do with his talent. Murray was coming off a late-season ACL tear and was guaranteed to miss a chunk of the season.
Murray wound up sitting out the first nine games of the season. Upon his return, managers claimed him off the waiver wire, but there wasn’t a ton of optimism surrounding a mobile QB coming back midseason from ACL surgery.
Heading into the 2024 season, it’s important to remember who Murray used to be. In his career, Murray has never averaged fewer than 18.2 fantasy points per game. Over his first four seasons, he finished as the QB11, QB3, QB4, and QB7, respectively.
In 2022, Murray averaged 18.9 fantasy points per game over 11 games, finishing as the overall QB7. Last season, in eight games, Murray averaged the exact same 18.9 points per game. I would argue that’s even more impressive, given he clearly wasn’t 100% yet.
It’s fair to say that around 19 PPG is Murray’s floor. While that figure isn’t what it used to be, you don’t exactly have to pay for it. Murray’s ADP is QB10, No. 73 overall. That’s awfully inexpensive for a guy who could easily be a third-round pick in 2025 drafts.
Murray is the type of QB who doesn’t need a great supporting cast to be an elite fantasy asset due to his mobility. Throughout his career, he’s averaged 37.7 rushing yards per game. That’s nearly a full touchdown’s worth of production in rushing yards alone.
Last season, Murray ran for 33 and 51 yards in each of his first two games back. If he was doing that while just returning from his knee injury, imagine how much more effective he will be another year removed.
From an aerial standpoint, Murray is actually in a better position this year than he was last year. His new WR1 is Marvin Harrison Jr., the best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson. Combined with the emergence of Trey McBride, Murray has two excellent options in the passing game — something he did not have last season.
Murray is going two full rounds after C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson. While Stroud is a superior player, Murray’s path to fantasy upside is much easier due to his rushing. That’s why Murray is my QB6 ahead of Stroud.
As for Richardson, are he and Murray not similar fantasy assets? The primary difference is we’ve seen Murray do it before. Richardson remains largely speculative (I do buy it, though).
There are a lot of QBs who look like good values this season, both early and late in fantasy drafts. However, out of all of them, Murray is my favorite target. Entering every draft, my main plan will be to draft Murray. He provides the best combination of stability and upside at what will likely go down as the most affordable price of his career.