Chicago Bears RB Khalil Herbert showed some versatility last season that we had yet to see from him. He has also been efficient as a runner through his three NFL seasons (4.9 yards per carry).
Combine his tape with the fact that, thanks to a huge offseason, this Bears offense is set to take as big a step forward as any team in the league, and we should be bullish on Herbert. That said, Chicago inked D’Andre Swift to a three-year deal worth $24 million ($20.4 million more than Herbert’s current four-year deal).
Should fantasy football managers be labeling this as a committee where Herbert can carve out enough of a niche to matter, or is he simply a “break glass in case of emergency” option in this offense?
Should You Select Khalil Herbert at His Current ADP?
ADP: 213th Overall (RB58)
Swift was great last season with the Philadelphia Eagles. He flirted with 1,300 total yards and, for the third time in four seasons, picked up over 4.5 yards per carry. He was brought in to lead Chicago’s backfield, and I have no doubt that he’ll open the season with such a role.
But let’s not completely overlook the fact that Swift has been somewhat fragile in the past and is coming off of a season in which he saw 51.7% more carries than he had ever seen in a season before.
The tipping point here is that Herbert and Swift do similar things. That can be viewed as a negative (why put a lesser version of Swift on the field when you have the real version on your roster?) or a positive (if Swift goes down, Herbert’s role is pretty clear).
I lean toward the latter because I’ll be comfortable starting him if the opportunity presents itself and never really tempted to Flex him otherwise. Elijah Mitchell isn’t stepping into 90% of Christian McCaffrey’s role if an injury happens, and I don’t think Braelon Allen becomes a cheap version of Hall if the New York Jets catch the injury bug again.
Those are just two cherry-picked examples, but the point remains. As I fill out my bench in August, I want players who project favorably role-wise should they be given the chance to rise up the depth chart in November.
Look elsewhere (Tyler Allgeier and Ty Chandler types) if you want a weekly floor — that’s just not how I build out the back end of my running back room.
Herbert’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Let’s start with the good: the environment. Last season, nine teams scored north of 400 points during the regular season, and six of the top-eight PPR per-game running backs played for one of those offenses.
Khalil Herbert made 1 start in 2022.
He turned 22 touches into 169 yards and 2 TDs.
30.9 PPR Points, RB1 on the Week. pic.twitter.com/ffx10QQSCJ
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld)
Another two points per game from last season, and the Bears are knocking on the 400-club, growth I’m more than happy to project.
Elite roles can help offset a limited supporting cast. Travis Etienne Jr. and Breece Hall were the two top-eight backs who didn’t play for one of those strong offenses.
But when we’re trying to sort out the late stages of the draft and throwing darts, I generally want players (not just running backs, this is true for any position) who are tethered to an offense with a floor expectation of league average and upward mobility.
The Bears certainly have that with a pair of top-10 picks spent on the passing game and the addition of Keenan Allen, not to mention the fact that they play in a very offensive-minded division.
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The question now becomes one of talent and opportunity. Herbert has proven himself more than capable. Since he entered the league, 46 running backs have at least 300 carries, and only nine of them have picked up 10+ yards more consistently than him (12.1%, a rate that ranks ahead of, among others, Swift).
Now it’s a matter of how you want to build your roster when it comes to determining if investing in Chicago’s RB2 is the move for you.