The 2022 hiring process for coaches has been lengthy. Although the Minnesota Vikings were able to interview Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell weeks ago, they could not officially hire him until after the Super Bowl. Now that he’s officially on board, what impact might O’Connell have on Kirk Cousins and fantasy football stars Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson?
The Minnesota Vikings hire Kevin O’Connell as head coach
Vikings fans and fantasy football managers alike rejoiced at the end of Mike Zimmer’s tenure in Minnesota. Zimmer’s claim to fame was mediocrity. The Vikings were never terrible, winning at least seven games every season since Zimmer was hired in 2014. Yet, they only made the playoffs three times. Despite being a consistently talented team, the Vikings underperformed due to Zimmer’s conservative coaching philosophy.
O’Connell spent one year in Washington as offensive coordinator before joining Sean McVay’s coaching staff with the Rams in 2020. The Rams finished 10th and sixth, respectively, in scoring during O’Connell’s two years in Los Angeles.
O’Connell spent two years learning under Sean McVay
During his two years with the Rams, it’s reasonable to presume O’Connell learned some things from McVay. No team runs 11 personnel (3 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE) more than the Rams. They did so 85% of the time in 2021, and that base formation has been their most common since McVay joined the team. By contrast, under Zimmer in 2021, the Vikings ran 11 personnel just 47% of the time.
O’Connell is a first-time head coach so we can’t know for sure what his coaching philosophy will be. He could seek to implement a McVay-style 3-WR base. It’s also possible the construction of the Vikings roster doesn’t allow for it.
There are similarities between the Rams and Vikings rosters
The Rams’ talent at wide receiver is what allows them to trot out three receivers consistently. If O’Connell wants to, the Vikings could do the same.
Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson are two of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL. At WR2, the Rams have aging veteran Robert Woods and Odell Beckham Jr., while the Vikings have Adam Thielen.
Then, at WR3, the Rams used Van Jefferson, and the Vikings have a very capable K.J. Osborn. Each team has one primary tight end in Tyler Higbee for the Rams and Tyler Conklin for the Vikings.
This is purely speculation on what O’Connell might do, but I would expect more 11 personnel and for him to move the Vikings towards having three wide receivers on the field more often.
How would this shift impact the fantasy football prospects of the Vikings’ main weapons?
If the Vikings run more three-receiver sets, that could lead to a reduced target share for everyone. With that said, Jefferson is a true alpha, and I don’t see a coach like O’Connell, who was part of Kupp’s near-record breaking season, doing anything to inhibit Jefferson. In fact, I expect him to try and apply what worked so well with Kupp to Jefferson.
Where the shift could have more of an impact on fantasy football is regarding Thielen and Osborn. At age 32, perhaps the Vikings transition Thielen into more of a complementary role. He should remain a red-zone asset (24 touchdowns the past two seasons), but his production may be more touchdown-dependent than ever.
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On the other hand, Osborn may be more fantasy-relevant as the Vikings’ WR3. Last season, Osborn only produced consistently when Thielen was out. In 2022, the Vikings could be more pass-heavy and utilize Osborn more often.
As for Conklin, it’s difficult to assess because of Irv Smith’s return. We just don’t know if Conklin will maintain his role as the primary tight end, cede it back to Smith, or if the two will be mired in some sort of unfriendly fantasy split.
What about Dalvin Cook and the running game?
Since the Vikings drafted Cook, he’s always been the main guy whenever healthy. Alexander Mattison is a very capable backup that is just as good as Cook from a fantasy perspective, but he is nothing more than a pure backup when Cook is out there. They never split touches.
The Rams have operated similarly with their backfield. During the entirety of McVay’s tenure, regardless of who his offensive coordinator was, they had one workhorse. Whether it was Todd Gurley, Malcolm Brown, Darrell Henderson, Cam Akers, or Sony Michel, the Rams would have their lead back in a three-down role. As a result, I would expect Cook’s usage in the Vikings’ offense to remain unchanged. He will continue to be an elite RB1 in fantasy football.
A final note about O’Connell
It’s important to recognize two things about O’Connell. First, he is a first-time head coach. As far as I’m concerned, this is always a good thing. This will be the start of O’Connell carving his own path and determining his own coaching style. He can adapt to the modern NFL without being stuck in old ways like so many retreads.
Second, O’Connell did not call plays in Los Angeles. At this point, we do not know if he will call plays in Minnesota. My guess is that he will not. With that said, McVay always had O’Connell heavily involved in weekly game planning. Even though O’Connell hasn’t called the plays himself, Vikings fans and fantasy managers alike should feel confident in his ability to put together offensive game plans that cater to his players’ strengths.
