It’s a new era for the Buffalo Bills, at least at the wide receiver position. Gone are the Bills’ two top wide receivers from last season, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.
Here are the fantasy outlooks for Coleman, Shakir, and Samuel heading into Week 1.
Week 1 Fantasy Outlook for Keon Coleman
Coleman enters this season as the WR52 in Pro Football Network’s Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings. On a team devoid of star power at the wide receiver position, Coleman potentially provides terrific value for fantasy football managers.
The rookie out of Florida State enjoyed a solid 2023 season, his only with the Seminoles; he spent his first two seasons at Michigan State. Although his numbers were not necessarily All-American material — 50 receptions, 658 yards — Coleman did catch 11 touchdown passes in his 12 games last season.
Coleman also showed up in big games. Right out of the gate against LSU in last year’s season opener, Coleman caught nine passes for 122 yards and three touchdowns. A few weeks later against powerhouse Clemson, Coleman again was a star, catching five passes for 86 yards and two more scores.
Week 1 Fantasy Outlook for Khalil Shakir
Shakir is the WR45 in PFN’s consensus rankings, a ranking that is more impressive than you would think when you consider that Shakir had fewer than 40 receptions a season ago (39). With Diggs and Davis gone, Shakir represents the top returning wide receiver on the Bills’ roster.
Shakir did see a significant improvement in his numbers in his second season in 2023. He went from just 20 targets in 14 games in 2022 to 45 targets last season. He finished with 611 yards and two scores and an average of 13.6 yards per reception.
What makes the idea of Shakir as an option in fantasy lineups not farfetched is the fact that he had a catch percentage of 86.7%, the highest percentage last season among wide receivers who were targeted at least 45 times.
While no one should expect that percentage to remain the same, or even increase this season, if Shakir can maintain a catch percentage in the 70s, perhaps he can turn into a quality fantasy performer with more targets almost certainly coming this way.
Week 1 Fantasy Outlook for Curtis Samuel
Samuel is WR69 in PFN’s rankings. His numbers during his three seasons with the Washington Commanders were simply average, but when you have quarterbacks like Taylor Heinicke and Sam Howell throwing you the ball, perhaps it isn’t all on the wide receiver.
Now with Josh Allen as his quarterback, perhaps Samuel can return to the form he displayed in his final season with the Carolina Panthers, when he averaged a career-high 14.1 fantasy points per game in 2020.
On the other hand, Samuel has never been a big touchdown producer — 22 touchdown receptions in 91 career games — so fantasy managers have to wonder just how much to expect from a player with average production throughout his career.
Who Should I Start in Week 1?
According to Pro Football Network’s Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer, Shakir is the best choice of the three to start Sunday. He is projected to finish with three receptions for 46 yards and 8.7 fantasy points.
This outperforms the projections of both Coleman — three receptions, 39 yards, 7.8 fantasy points — and Samuel — three receptions, 24 yards, 6.4 fantasy points.
I agree with the optimizer in this situation. While it may be difficult for fantasy managers to put any of these receivers in their lineup right away, with Allen throwing the ball, it’s probably worth a strong consideration. And for the moment, Shakir is the best option to have a productive opening game.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for the Bills WRs in Week 1
Curtis Samuel: The veteran receiver suffered a turf toe injury in mid-August and was immediately labeled as “week-to-week,” bringing his Week 1 status into question.
Samuel turned 28 this offseason and only has one 700-yard season on his resume, though it did come with Brady as his OC in 2020 with the Panthers.
For now, Samuel is a stash because of the uncertainty of target distribution in this above-average offense, but I have his ceiling ranked third among the trio of Bills vying for targets. Being less than 100% isn’t going to change that stance.
Khalil Shakir: In theory, the Shakir case is simple – he was insanely efficient in a small sample size and now he is being asked to do more.
My initial reaction was to use Shakir’s 2023 stat line as a reason to watch him this season. But am I giving him enough credit?
Here are the top receiver seasons over the past decade by players standing at least 6’0” before turning 25, in terms of production over expectation (minimum 40 targets):
- A.J. Brown (2019): +53.6% – current peak finish: WR7
- Shakir (2023:): +50.7%
- Martavis Bryant (2014): +46.1% – current peak finish: WR17
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017): +44.4% – current peak finish: WR9
- Mike Williams (2018): +44.4% – current peak finish: WR13
- Will Fuller V (2018): +39.6% – current peak finish: WR8
- Nico Collins (2023): +36.8% – current peak finish: WR7
- Ja’Marr Chase (2021): +36.8% – current peak finish: WR5
That paints a pretty optimistic picture and we could get a glimpse of that this week against a Cardinals defense that allowed the second-highest slot TD rate last season. For reference, Shakir had a 67.2% slot usage last year.
I’m not ready to assume greatness or anything like that after a strong 45-target 2023, but there is a positive track record for this sort of resume, and that means keeping a close eye on Shakir as the structure of this offense comes into focus.
Keon Coleman: We don’t know exactly what the target hierarchy will look like in Buffalo, but Coleman figures to be in the middle of things given the team used a second-round pick on him after punting away its top two receivers this offseason.
While Shakir and Samuel project more as the conservative pieces in this offense, the 6’3” Coleman owns a catch radius that Allen will certainly explore in valuable spots. The Cardinals allowed 15.9 yards per deep pass attempt last season, a rate that is hard to grapple with. It was 16.9% worse than any other unit in 2023, and the second-worst mark over the past decade.
We will learn together where Allen is most comfortable, but Coleman is my preferred option in Week 1 and in this matchup. He was able to sneak into my top 40 at the position despite a lack of clarity regarding his role.