One of the most fascinating players to evaluate ahead of the 2024 season is Chicago Bears WR Keenan Allen. He’s coming off the best season of his career but has undergone multiple significant changes in his situation. How should fantasy football managers approach the aging veteran?
Should You Select Keenan Allen at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 69th Overall (WR30)
- 2023 Recap: Allen is coming off the best season of his career, averaging 21.5 fantasy points per game and finishing as the WR3. Despite being 32 years old, he showed no signs of decline.
- Consistency and Durability: Allen has been one of the most consistent receivers in the NFL, averaging at least 16.1 fantasy points per game every year since 2017 and playing no fewer than 14 games each season.
- 2024 Outlook: Although Allen remains a highly skilled receiver, his situation has changed significantly. He’s now on the Chicago Bears, competing for targets with DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and others, and catching passes from rookie QB Caleb Williams.
- Challenges: The presence of other talented receivers and a rookie quarterback may limit Allen’s target share and overall production. The Bears are unlikely to throw as much as Justin Herbert did with the Chargers, impacting Allen’s volume.
- ADP Value: Allen is currently being drafted as the WR30, 69th overall. Given his proven track record, this ADP is remarkably low, and he could easily outperform it even if he doesn’t repeat last year’s top-tier production.
- Final Verdict: Allen’s current ADP makes him an incredible value pick. While he’s unlikely to be a top-12 receiver again, he offers solid WR2 potential at a bargain price. If his ADP holds, he’s a must-draft player in 2024.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Keenan Allen
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
63) Najee Harris, RB | Pittsburgh Steelers
64) Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | New England Patriots
65) Jaylen Warren, RB | Pittsburgh Steelers
66) C.J. Stroud, QB | Houston Texans
67) Dalton Kincaid, TE | Buffalo Bills
68) Keenan Allen, WR | Chicago Bears
69) Joe Burrow, QB | Cincinnati Bengals
70) Evan Engram, TE | Jacksonville Jaguars
71) Tank Dell, WR | Houston Texans
72) Jonathon Brooks, RB | Carolina Panthers
73) George Pickens, WR | Pittsburgh Steelers
Keenan Allen’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
What do we do with Allen? He’s 32 years old, which is a major red flag. However, he’s fresh off the best season of his career, averaging 21.5 fantasy points per game and finishing as the overall WR3.
Although Allen is one of the oldest wide receivers in the NFL, it’s hard to project decline when he hasn’t shown any signs. Since 2017, Allen has averaged at least 16.1 fantasy points per game each year while playing no fewer than 14 games.
The truth is that Allen was never actually injury-prone. He lacerated a kidney in 2015 and tore his ACL in 2016. Neither of those injuries yielded recurring problems.
Outside of eight games in 2015, though, Allen has also never been a game-breaking receiver. He’s been solid and reliable, but the 20 points-per-game upside wasn’t there.
After averaging between 16.1 and 17.8 fantasy points per game for six straight years, Allen’s 2023 explosion sure looks like an outlier. He got there by commanding an elite 32% target share and seeing a target on 30% of his routes run, both third in the league.
Allen didn’t suddenly become this downfield threat, as he still only averaged 8.3 yards per target. He was the same elite reliable underneath guy he’s always been.
In the past, my philosophy was to be out on a player a year early rather than a year late. I have since abandoned that approach. Now, I continue to believe a player is good until he gives me a reason not to. Allen has given me no reason to believe he will be anything other than one of the best wide receivers in the NFL.
Of course, being a great player does not automatically translate to being a great fantasy asset. There’s a lot more to the equation than talent.
Oftentimes, when we see older players change teams it’s because their previous team did not believe they were good anymore. That’s not the case with Allen. The Chargers wanted him to take a pay cut. He disagreed, probably because he knows he’s still at the top of his game. I believe him.
Is Allen a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
While it’s great that Allen is still on a team with a quarterback we expect to be very good in Caleb Williams, there’s no way to project him for the same opportunity.
Last year, Allen was the clear top option in a very weak WR corps. This year, he’s competing for targets with DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, and D’Andre Swift.
Allen is probably the 1B to Moore’s 1A. There will be plenty of volume to go around, but even a 25% target share would be a win.
Furthermore, we’re talking about 25% of the targets, at best, from a rookie QB. As great as Williams should be, he’s still a rookie. We’re now asking a rookie QB to step in and immediately sustain the fantasy values of two wide receivers who finished inside the top 12 last season.
The only rookie signal-caller in NFL history to do anything close to that was C.J. Stroud last season, with Nico Collins and Tank Dell both finishing as top-18 receivers in fantasy points per game.
The Bears will throw the ball more this year than last year. Still, they are almost certainly not going to air it out as much as Justin Herbert did in Los Angeles.
There are obvious concerns with Allen’s opportunity. However, those concerns are heavily baked into his price. Quite frankly, I’m not sure what’s going on.
Allen’s ADP sits at WR31, No. 69 overall. Need I remind you there were only two wide receivers better than him last season. Everyone knows Allen is not going to be a top-six WR again. He probably won’t be top 12. He may not even be top 18. But you’re telling me Allen could finish as a low-end WR2 and still provide an incredible return on investment?
I get it. WR is super deep. There are a lot of young players going around Allen, many of whom we have not yet seen anywhere near their best season, but we’ve gone too far. If Allen’s ADP holds, I am going to draft him in every league, and you should too … unless you’re in my league.