The Kansas City Chiefs are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot, but their ambitions go beyond a playoff spot — or even the AFC West title. What are the Chiefs’ playoff scenarios for Week 16 when it comes to the division, the AFC one-seed, and the AFC Wild Card picture?
Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Chances | Week 16 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Sunday, Dec. 24 at 8:25 a.m. before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Week 16, the Chiefs remain the No. 3 seed in the AFC. However, they have been eliminated from No. 1 seed contention.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Browns (10-5) defeated Texans (8-7)
Falcons (7-8) defeated Colts (8-7)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Buccaneers (8-7) defeated Jaguars (8-7)
Dolphins (11-4) defeated Cowboys (10-5)
Sunday Night Football Update
Patriots (4-11) defeated Broncos (7-8)
Christmas Day Update
Raiders (7-8) defeated Chiefs (9-6)
Eagles (11-4) defeated Giants (5-10)
Ravens (12-3) defeated 49ers (11-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Chiefs entering Week 16. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Kansas City Chiefs’ Playoff Chances and Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 16?
The Chiefs are almost as close to locked into the playoffs as you could be without actually clinching a spot, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). The FPI gives the Chiefs a 99.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 99% chance of clinching the AFC West.
This week could see the Chiefs clinch a playoff spot by wrapping up the division. However, it is all or nothing for Kansas City in that regard. If they do not lock up the division, they will not clinch a playoff spot this week.
However, the Chiefs have the chance to lock up that spot themselves.
A win against the Las Vegas Raiders would be enough to ensure the Chiefs their ninth straight divisional crown, thanks to their playoff tiebreaker advantage over the Denver Broncos.
The Chiefs would have an unassailable lead over the Broncos in terms of conference record, and the Broncos could not surpass them in any of the other divisional tiebreakers before that one.
The alternative option for the Chiefs to secure the division would be to tie with the Raiders and for the Broncos to lose to the New England Patriots during Sunday Night Football. That would put the Chiefs 2.5 games ahead of the Broncos with two left to play.
MORE:Â NFL Week 16 Playoff Bracket
The Chiefs could still lose the division if they cannot win in either Week 16 or 18 — even a Week 17 win over the Cincinnati Bengals would not be enough if Denver went 3-0.
The Broncos would take the division based on a superior divisional record between the two teams. If the Chiefs were to go 3-0, both the Raiders and Broncos could surpass them for the division.
Can the Chiefs Still Get the AFC No. 1 Seed?
The Chiefs remain very much in the race for the top seed in the AFC, but they do not have much margin for error at this point. Kansas City is one game behind the 10-4 Miami Dolphins and two games behind the 11-3 Baltimore Ravens. However, both of those teams have a tough schedule in the closing three weeks.
Kansas City has the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dolphins, but they haven’t played the Ravens this year. Therefore, we have to look to their conference records as the next tiebreaker. The Chiefs currently have a 7-2 conference record, compared to 7-3 for the Ravens. There is no scenario where a tie can occur, so the Chiefs do not have the advantage in terms of their conference records.
However, for a tie to happen, the Chiefs would either need to go 3-0 and hope the Ravens manage to win just one game, or the Chiefs could go 2-1 and hope the Ravens fail to win another game this season. The first scenario would require the Dolphins to lose at least one of their final three games, and the second scenario would require them to go 1-2 or worse.
If the Chiefs go 3-0, they would shut out the Browns based on a superior conference record. However, if the Chiefs go 2-1, the Ravens 0-3, and the Browns 3-0, Cleveland would finish above both the Chiefs and Ravens in the AFC standings.
Could the Chiefs Miss the Playoffs This Season?
In theory, yes, the Chiefs could miss the playoffs. But it would likely require them to go 0-3 down the stretch.
In the scenario we discussed, where the Chiefs go 1-2 and get surpassed by the Broncos for the division, Kansas City would get to 10 wins on the season. They would then be hoping that three other AFC Wild Card teams do not get to 10 wins or more.
MORE: Kansas City Chiefs Depth Chart
The Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, and/or the Houston Texans can all still get to 11 wins. If four of that group get to 11 wins, the Chiefs would miss the playoffs if they go 1-2.
Of course, if the Chiefs win against the Bengals, that would rule Cincinnati out of getting to nine wins, which means that the Browns, Jaguars, and at least one one of the Colts or Texans would need to get to 11 wins, while the Bills got to 10 wins.
The Bills are the only team in that group that could win a straight head-to-head tiebreaker against the Chiefs. However, in a three-way tiebreaker, that head-to-head could be negated. Then, the Chiefs would likely emerge as the superior team, based on conference record.
The most realistic way for the Chiefs to miss out on the playoffs is if they go 0-3 down the stretch. Then, all the other AFC Wild Card teams would need to do is get to 10 wins, and they could negate any playoff tiebreaker situations.
There are plenty of ways that enough teams could get to 10 wins that the Chiefs could be eliminated at 9-8 if they also lose control of the division.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!Â
