The Kansas City Chiefs have completed their transformation into the current era’s version of the New England Patriots. Even though they don’t look like the best team in the NFL, they still find ways to win every game.
The Chiefs won their first nine games, setting themselves up for another deep playoff run. Even with their loss to the Bills in Week 11, they’re primed to make a run at becoming the first three-peat Super Bowl champions in NFL history.
But what are Kansas City’s chances of making the playoffs or winning the Super Bowl? Let’s look at all the scenarios in play.
Can the Chiefs Make the Playoffs?
After all the action in Week 11, the Kansas City Chiefs are 9-1 and now have a 99.9% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a 71.1% chance for the 1 seed, a 14.3% chance for the second seed, a 3.6% chance for the third seed, a 0.4% chance for the fourth seed, an 8.7% chance for the fifth seed, a 1.5% chance for the sixth seed, and a 0.4% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Chiefs Win the AFC West?
Here’s what the AFC West race looks like after all the Sunday action in Week 11:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have an 89.5% chance to win the AFC West.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have a 7.5% chance to win the AFC West.
- The Denver Broncos have a 3.0% chance to win the AFC West.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have a 0.0% chance to win the AFC West.
Current AFC West Standings
- Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)
- Los Angeles Chargers (7-3)
- Denver Broncos (6-5)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-8)
Chiefs’ Super Bowl Chances After Week 11
Can the Chiefs win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Kansas City has a 7.9% chance to win it all.
Chiefs’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 12: at Carolina Panthers
- Week 13: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 14: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 15: at Cleveland Browns
- Week 16: vs. Houston Texans
- Week 17: at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Week 18: at Denver Broncos
What PFN Predicted for the Bills vs. Chiefs Matchup
Let’s look at both teams’ season rankings in various PFN metrics.
- Bills offense: 6th (B)
- Bills defense: 13th (C+)
- Bills QB Josh Allen: 9th (B)
- Chiefs offense: 7th (B)
- Chiefs defense: 11th (C+)
- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: 8th (B)
This is one of the marquee games on the 2024 NFL schedule. If the Bills win, they’ll reestablish themselves as true AFC contenders and claim the head-to-head tiebreaker, while the Chiefs would all but lock up the No. 1 seed with a victory.
ICYMI…
For all of you that went to bed early last night. You are not going to want to miss this 🤯#NFL | #NFLUK pic.twitter.com/83m0shesgY
— NFL UK & Ireland (@NFLUKIRE) January 24, 2022
Buffalo began the season with a three-game winning streak before losing two straight. Since then, the Bills have won five straight games while scoring 30+ points in their last four contests. They rank just 14th in yards per game (343.2) but are averaging the third-most points per game (29.0).
Josh Allen, who watched Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis leave last offseason, has been the biggest story for Buffalo. A top MVP candidate, Allen, in the first 10 weeks, completed 63.5% of his passes for 2,281 yards and 17 touchdowns, along with four interceptions while adding 261 rushing yards and four TDs.
Can the Bills be the first team in 30 games to score over 28 points against the Chiefs? We’ll just have to wait and see.
To that end, Kansas City’s defense arguably is the best overall unit in this game.
Like many teams, the Bills have enough offensive firepower to overcome a relatively mediocre KC offense, which is averaging just 23.9 points per game. However, since the start of last season, the Chiefs’ defense repeatedly has sucked the life out of opponents failing to capitalize on Mahomes playing with subpar receivers.
Through 10 weeks, Kansas City’s defense ranks fifth in scoring (17.9 opponents’ points per game), third in rushing yards allowed (83.2), 14th in passing yards allowed (206.7), and fourth in total yards allowed (289.9).
With all that said, the Chiefs still have Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and DeAndre Hopkins, and Andy Reid still is calling the plays. Yeah, Mahomes’ 12-9 touchdown-interception ratio isn’t great, but he’s still the NFL’s best QB with the game on the line.
The Chiefs and Bills will kick off from Highmark Stadium at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday.
PFN Prediction: Chiefs 27, Bills 26