Justin Jefferson wasted no time in proving to fantasy football managers that he was ready for the big leagues, as he caught a 71-yard touchdown pass in his third career game and really hasn’t slowed down since.
Throw a dart at a record book, and you’re likely to land on Jefferson’s name when it comes to production through four seasons. But for the first time, he’s dealing with some adversity after the Minnesota Vikings moved on from Kirk Cousins this offseason.
How confident should fantasy football managers be in selecting Jefferson with their first pick in redraft leagues this summer?
Should You Select Justin Jefferson at His Current ADP?
ADP: 5th Overall (WR4)
In early drafts, Jefferson is being selected as the fourth receiver off the board and fifth overall. I have him one spot lower in my positional ranks, so I’m fine with the placement in that regard, but I personally would opt to exhaust the top tier of running backs before calling Jefferson’s name.
Why?
It really has nothing to do with Jefferson and everything to do with the position. By locking in a top-shelf RB in the middle of Round 1, you’ll likely have access to a top-10 receiver on the way back — a decline in production from Jefferson that is less significant than if you did the inverse and were looking at a running back in the middle of the second round.
At the end of the day, I don’t think you’re losing your 2024 fantasy league because you drafted Jefferson. T.J. Hockenson’s ACL recovery is reportedly going well, but his immediate impact is unknown. And as much as we like Jordan Addison’s upside, he doesn’t project as the type of receiver who will hinder Jefferson’s production in a major way (if anything, I think his stock is the most hurt by the change at QB).
Jefferson’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Jefferson’s résumé is downright video game-ish. Yes, it’s so good that we need to bend the English language to describe it properly.
In 60 career games, Jefferson has racked up 5,899 receiving yards. Even with injuries all over Minnesota’s offense late last season, he was there when fantasy managers needed him most (23 catches for 392 yards and a pair of touchdowns over his final three games).
Jefferson has been a staple on successful fantasy teams ever since he stepped foot onto a professional field. But with Sam Darnold starting for the Vikings, Jefferson’s name is not in consideration for the first overall pick this season.
This Justin Jefferson TD makes it a one possession game in Detroit 👀#SKOL
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 7, 2024
The skill set isn’t at all in question, but with the other Tier 1 receivers all having a semblance of stability under center, the concerns are valid.
Let’s take a look at how recent first-round quarterbacks have done in supporting their top option in the passing game (minimum 11 games played as a rookie).
- CJ Stroud (2023) – Nico Collins: 80-1297-8
- Bryce Young (2023) – Adam Thielen: 103-1014-4
- Kenny Pickett (2022) – Diontae Johnson: 86-882-0
- Trevor Lawrence (2021) – Marvin Jones Jr.: 73-832-4
- Zach Wilson (2021) – Corey Davis: 65-930-8 (17-game pace)
- Justin Fields (2021) – Darnell Mooney: 81-1055-4
- Mac Jones (2021) – Jakobi Meyers: 83-866-2
- Justin Herbert (2020): – Keenan Allen: 100-992-8
On the whole, that’s pretty solid from a catches and yards standpoint, but the scoring is where the concerns come in — and I think McCarthy would have been the optimal situation for Jefferson compared to Darnold, something that obviously can no longer occur. That’s not to say that an outlier Diontae Johnson type of season is coming, but counting on Jefferson to score every other game like he has up to this point is probably a touch optimistic.
Even after baking that in, there’s enough proof in the pudding when it comes to Jefferson’s ability to win on every level and uncover in a heartbeat. His role isn’t in question at all, which makes him a solid foundational piece in any league — even if we regress his numbers a little for the change under center.