Fresh off one of the most impressive rookie seasons we have ever seen, expectations for Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson have him nestled amongst the top fantasy football options at his position. Does his fantasy outlook match the hype, or is Jefferson likely to disappoint at his current ADP?
Justin Jefferson’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Jefferson’s 2020 campaign reset the bar on how we judge rookie wide receivers. He also continued the pattern of rookie breakouts at WR rather than expecting the leap in production to wait until their second season in the NFL.
Taken with the 22nd overall selection in the 2020 NFL Draft, Jefferson had massive shoes to fill as he stepped into the role vacated by Stefon Diggs after a trade sent him to the Buffalo Bills.
The former LSU standout finished 2020 with 1,400 receiving yards — a total that set rookie records in both the Super Bowl era and Vikings’ franchise history. Jefferson led all rookies last season with 88 receptions and tied for the second-most touchdowns with 7. He did what no other wide receiver in the game’s history had done by turning 125 or fewer targets into 1,400 yards.
Averaging 87.5 yards per game, Jefferson crossed the century mark seven times. In the process, he quickly established himself as one of the NFL’s premier deep threats (11.1 average depth of target). Jefferson ended the year as the WR6 in fantasy while averaging 17.1 ppg. Furthermore, he recorded top-24 (WR2) or better performances in eight of his games (50%).Â
The question is, where can Jefferson go for an encore performance?
It will be challenging to replicate these numbers again, especially the highly efficient 70.4% catch percentage. However, it’s possible he comes close, as Kirk Cousins is one of the more accurate QBs in the NFL. Last season, 87.1% of his targets (101 of 125) to Jefferson were catchable per Sports Info Solutions. When combined with the rare talent Jefferson brings, we may see him come extremely close to his 2020 numbers and head into the season with one of the highest fantasy outlooks of 2021.
Justin Jefferson’s fantasy projection
It’s worth noting that while Jefferson “played” in 16 games, it was really only 14. In Weeks 1 and 2, Jefferson played on just 61% of the snaps and saw 6 combined targets. If anything, it makes his season even more impressive. But can it be replicated in 2021?
While there was a change at offensive coordinator, I would not be concerned about how this may impact Jefferson and his fantasy outlook. After all, Klint Kubiak is literally Gary Kubiak’s son.
Jefferson could struggle if the Vikings’ defense is as improved as we think it might be in 2021. Not only did they re-sign Anthony Barr, but they brought in DT Dalvin Tomlinson, CB Patrick Peterson, DL Sheldon Richardson, DE Stephen Weatherly, CB Mackensie Alexander, and CB Bashaud Breeland.
This is important because last season, the Vikings’ defense was one of the worst in football and forced the offense to play from behind. In neutral game scripts alone, the Vikings threw the third-fewest amount at just 50% compared to the league average of 57%. In negative game scripts, they are league average at 66% when trailing by seven or more points. If the defense keeps the team in more competitive games, we should expect to see a more run-focused offense with Dalvin Cook at the center of it.
With all that said, Jefferson will be the go-to receiver for the Vikings. However, he will lose work in the red zone to Adam Thielen, who saw the sixth-most red-zone targets in 2020 (19).
Early projections have Jefferson seeing similar success to his rookie season with around 90 receptions on 130 targets for 1,300-1,350 yards and 8 touchdowns.
Justin Jefferson’s fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Jefferson is currently the WR8 with an ADP of 25.8 in half PPR formats. In superflex formats, where quarterbacks have an increased value, he falls a bit to 27.9. Meanwhile, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Jefferson is the WR7 with a 23.38 ADP. On Fleaflicker his ADP is similar at 23.5.
Should you draft Justin Jefferson in 2021 for fantasy?
Anywhere in the WR6 to WR7 range feels right for Jefferson. Still, I would always advise a tier-based approach to the draft. He has top-three level upside but would require both the same hyper-efficiency from last season along with some of Thielen’s red-zone target share.Â
I absolutely believe he can do it. Jefferson is as well-rounded of a receiver as there is and will only continue to get better as his route tree becomes more and more refined. If you want an alpha WR1 on your fantasy team and can stomach the ADP, Jefferson is about as good of an option as you can hope for in 2021.
