While the draft and waiver wire impact a fantasy football team, nothing else matters if you make the wrong lineup decisions. As managers make the final tweaks to their lineups for Week 2, should you start Los Angeles Chargers WR Josh Palmer in your fantasy football lineup against the Kansas City Chiefs?
Has the injury to Keenan Allen opened the door for Josh Palmer’s breakout?
Injuries suck. Plain and simple. We were lucky this offseason to get out of it as cleanly as we did. Week 1 more than made up for it — when the pads got cracking, so did players, one of which being the Chargers’ top receiver and fantasy WR1, Keenan Allen.
Allen started the game off on fire. An early target of Justin Herbert, Allen settled into 2022 quickly, catching all four targets for 66 yards, with his last one coming early in the second quarter. Allen was on pace for a fantastic start to the season.
Instead, he suffered a hamstring injury that ended his day after only 22 snaps. Allen was ruled out for the game, and with a short week on the horizon, it seemed a longshot to suit up on Thursday Night for a potentially division-deciding matchup against the Chiefs.
On Wednesday, we got the news we somewhat expected — Allen had been ruled out of Week 2’s Thursday night clash. While this is disappointing for those who spent a top-three pick on Allen, this opens up a path for one of my favorite under-the-radar breakouts, Josh Palmer, to step into the spotlight.
Palmer’s trajectory is pointing upward despite a first glance at his stat line
Box scores are great for a quick glance. However, they lack nuance. It’s all numbers and no context. So when you see Palmer has a whopping five yards on three of five receptions, it’s easy to move past him when setting your lineup or scoring waiver for Week 2. But that might be a critical oversight, as when I dig deeper, there is more than initially meets the eye.
It was assumed Palmer was the No. 3 WR on the Chargers’ depth chart behind Allen and Mike Williams. An important role, given how much the Chargers like to throw the ball around.
But Palmer’s spot on the depth chart was confirmed on Sunday. Before Allen’s injury, Palmer played 24 snaps in the first half compared to Jaylen Guyton’s two. More importantly, Palmer took every single snap in two-tight sets and saw an additional bump in two-wide sets, lining up with Williams.
DeAndre Carter did steal the show to an extent, catching three of four for 64 and a touchdown. However, he trailed Palmer in both snaps (25) and routes (14), with his work coming after Allen was out when Chargers head coach Brandon Staley needed to adjust. Odds are this is more of a flash in the pan than anything that would indicate a pattern.
If anything, Palmer being more involved should have been expected. One of the reasons I was in on him was that in the short windows where he had an increased role, he was fantastic. Palmer averaged over seven targets per game as a rookie and scored a touchdown in his three games with a 60% snap share, averaging 15.8 PPR/game.
Should you start Josh Palmer against the Chiefs in your fantasy football lineup on Thursday Night?
Although it is a short week for the Chargers, they have had more than enough time to gameplan for life without Herbert’s top target. Big Mike will undoubtedly take the lead role, but Palmer is the one who will take the No. 2 role in an offense that ranked third in EPA/dropback in Week 1 without Allen and was seventh last year.
Oddsmakers also expect fireworks, placing a game total of 54.5 on the game. For fantasy managers who don’t gamble, it’s worth looking at betting lines to get a feel for potential game scripts. The Chiefs shellacked the Arizona Cardinals last week and at one point were up 37-7, meaning the Chargers must get on them in a hurry and keep the pedal down for 60 minutes.
Adding to the enthusiasm for Palmer is the absence of 2022 first-round draft pick Trent McDuffie. He was expected to take a prominent role in this secondary after it lost CB Charvarius Ward and S Tyran Mathieu. With L’Jarius Sneed likely on Williams for most of the snaps, Palmer should matchup against Jaylen Watson or Rashad Fenton. I’ll take either of those matchups personally.
If you are looking for a piece of what should be a shootout and are in a 10 or 12-team league, Palmer is most certainly an option as a flex play. Palmer currently sits in PFN’s fantasy football rankings as the WR37, placing his right on the cusp of WR3 status. If you are lacking depth or need some upside, Palmer could very well be the man for the job in Week 2, maybe even beyond.
