Anyone following me over the past couple of years knows that I greatly dislike two fantasy football RBs: Josh Jacobs and David Montgomery. However, I also understand that every player has a price where they’re worth drafting. Therefore, if both players fall in drafts, it’s worth knowing which one you should select.
The case for David Montgomery over Josh Jacobs
As a late-first/early-second-round pick in 2020 fantasy drafts, Las Vegas Raiders RB Josh Jacobs was a disappointment but not a total bust. He averaged 15.7 PPR points per game and was right on the RB1/2 border.
Meanwhile, Chicago Bears RB David Montgomery was a whole different animal. Montgomery was largely useless for the first 25 games of his career. Yet, from Weeks 12-16 last season, he was the overall RB1 in fantasy football, averaging 25.2 ppg. He was the definition of a league-winning fantasy football RB. Unfortunately, Jacobs simply does not possess that kind of upside.
Jacobs’ lack of involvement in the passing game
One of Jacobs’ best attributes coming out of Alabama was his ability as a receiver. Despite this fact, Raiders head coach Jon Gruden does not utilize Jacobs as a pass catcher. Jacobs averaged just 3 targets per game in 2020. Here’s a fun little tidbit — Jacobs has zero receiving yards on third down in his career. He is entirely reliant upon rushing yards and touchdowns.
Jacobs is consistently inconsistent
Jacobs’ 15.7 ppg wasn’t a true representation of his performance. He scored 35.9 fantasy points in Week 1 and 29.6 in Week 10. While he was a matchup-winner those weeks, think about what that means in the other 13 weeks he played. In those other 13 contests, Jacobs averaged 13.6 ppg, low RB2 territory.
David Montgomery is positioned well again in 2021
To be clear, I still don’t like Montgomery as a talent. Nevertheless, I acknowledge that if he gets the volume, he can produce. Montgomery proved as much throughout the 2020 regular season.
The return of Tarik Cohen and the acquisition of Damien Williams initially had Montgomery on my auto-fade list. I expected to see Montgomery going in the back half of the second round after his league-winning performance. Instead, Montgomery was a late-third/early-fourth-round pick. Add in the fact that Cohen is likely to open the season on the PUP list, and Montgomery’s passing game usage is poised to continue.
Montgomery’s receiving ability is what gives him value
Nothing is appealing about the Bears’ offensive line or their overall situation. Still, with Williams looking rather pedestrian in the preseason, this is likely Montgomery’s backfield once again. I don’t see Williams receiving Cohen’s role. If Montgomery gets hurt, then Williams becomes interesting, but not before.
Montgomery was targeted 4.5 times per game last season, a 150% increase on Jacobs’ target count. That usage absolutely would dip with Cohen in the lineup, but Cohen’s timetable to return is presently unknown. It’s entirely possible he doesn’t return at all. That gives Montgomery a safer floor than he otherwise would have had.
Why you should draft David Montgomery over Josh Jacobs in 2021 fantasy football leagues
There are concerns with Montgomery overall. The Bears have a bad offensive line and a completely incompetent head coach. Additionally, Matt Nagy is choosing to start Andy Dalton over the vastly superior rookie, Justin Fields. Fortunately for Montgomery, those concerns pale in comparison to issues with Jacobs.
Montgomery’s volume is safe, and even if he is not as good as he was down the stretch in 2020, he should at least have a solid RB2 floor. For Jacobs, that floor could completely collapse beneath him.
Kenyan Drake caps Josh Jacobs’ upside
Jacobs is heavily reliant on his rushing ability and goal-line work. Ideally, we’d want to see him get more involved in the passing game. But that’s unlikely to happen with the Raiders shelling out some serious cash to bring in Kenyan Drake.
The real issue with Drake relative to Jacobs is that he has a three-down skill set. By no means am I predicting Drake will straight up take Jacobs’ job. Still, Drake could end up being more than just a passing-down back. Drake could outplay the replacement-level talent that is Jacobs and earn slightly more work. This scenario would spell disaster for Jacobs’ value, making Montgomery both the safer pick and the one with more upside.
