Josh Jacobs was the toast of fantasy football in 2022 when he piled up 2,053 yards of offense, scored 12 times, and delivered one of the highlight performances of the season (303 total yards against the Seattle Seahawks, a masterpiece that included an 86-yard walk-off touchdown in overtime).
In 2023, however, Jacobs burned everyone who invested early draft capital in him in hopes of a repeat campaign. He missed four games and averaged just 3.5 yards per carry (down from 4.9 the year prior).
Jacobs upgraded his scoring environment, though, by joining the Green Bay Packers this offseason, and that has managers ready to again label him as an RB1.
Is that a smart move? Let’s dive into his fantasy profile.
Should You Select Josh Jacobs at His Current ADP?
ADP: 28th Overall (RB12)
I understand wanting a piece of a Packers offense that everyone is high on this season. However, there are better ways of checking that box than spending an early third-round pick on Jacobs.
Derrick Henry and De’Von Achane are two of the backs being lumped next to Jacobs when it comes to the RB11 title in early drafts. Yet, I would have zero hesitation in clicking either of their names before pulling the trigger on Jacobs.
Achane brings the explosive-play potential to the table with every touch, while Henry — also in a new situation for the first time in his career — profiles as the higher-floor option on a better offense with less role competition.
If your league-mates are like me and scoop both of those RBs before Jacobs, and you’re on the clock staring him in the face, worry not; you have the luxury of waiting. James Cook is going, on average, a round later, while a two-round discount is an option if Joe Mixon is of interest to you. Mixon’s profile is similar to Jacobs’, an RB with limited efficiency who is joining an upward-trending offense that we’re hoping will mask his pitfalls.
I don’t doubt that Jacobs will have his moments, but I see him as coming with more risk than reward in 2024. The 2022 version of him was nice, but paying the current price suggests that you’re hoping we see glimpses of that this season, something that is more optimistic than I’m willing to be.
Jacobs’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Jacobs is entering his age-26 season. While that may feel like the perfect age, be careful.
The Alabama product has cleared 260 touches in all five of his NFL seasons and is north of 1,500 for his career. It’s important to remember that age is simply a number; it’s the grind on the body that we are most concerned about (Raheem Mostert, for example, is six years older than Jacobs but is well under 900 touches for his career).
The Packers are obviously aware of the wear and tear that Jacobs has endured since he was a first-round pick in 2019, and you could see them hedging that bet this offseason.
Yes, Green Bay valued the fact that he’s three years younger than current Minnesota Vikings RB Aaron Jones. The hope is that Jacobs can help the Packers compete for a few years longer than what they had projected for their 2023 starter, but they’ve created a safety net.
AJ Dillon returned to Green Bay on a qualifying contract this offseason (he only counts for $1.3 million against the cap, but it’s depth all the same and a move they certainly weren’t obligated to do), and the Packers selected MarShawn Lloyd in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
#Packers OC Adam Stenavich on whether MarShawn Lloyd will see limited action his rookie season, ala AJ Dillon:
“No, I would like to get him out there as much as possible. He’s got a skill set that’s a little bit different than AJ’s, as far as his speed… It’ll be nice to get him… pic.twitter.com/PSWW3CbCOZ
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 6, 2024
At this point, Dillon isn’t to be viewed as a threat to Jacobs’ work, but by adding another bulky back (5’9”, 210 pounds), it’s clear that the Packers want similar options on their roster either to spell Jacobs or to fill-in should something happen.
Lloyd averaged an eye-popping 8.2 yards per touch last season at USC.
For me, this is a bit of a red flag. I love the versatility that Jacobs has shown over the past three seasons (3.2 catches per game after hauling in just 1.9 through his first two years), and his plodding running style figures to have a positive impact on a Packers offense that will look to feature a quickly developing Jordan Love.
But three of Jacobs’ past four seasons have been underwhelming in terms of efficiency, and that’s more of what I’m expecting in 2024.