Under the circumstances he found himself in, Indianapolis Colts WR Josh Downs’ had a pretty impressive rookie season. Yet, he wasn’t quite a weekly starter in fantasy football. Now entering his second year, can Downs take a big step forward with hopefully a full season of Anthony Richardson under center?
Should You Select Josh Downs at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 172nd Overall (WR64)
- Impressive Rookie Season: Despite the challenges of playing in a struggling offense, Josh Downs had a solid rookie season. He showed flashes of potential, particularly during a stretch from Weeks 3-8, where he posted five games with at least 13 fantasy points.
- Increased Target Competition: The addition of Adonai Mitchell in the NFL Draft creates more competition for targets. However, Downs is expected to remain the primary slot receiver, which should secure his role in the offense.
- Fit with Anthony Richardson: Downs showed an ability to get open and help his quarterback after plays broke down. With Richardson’s ability to extend plays, this bodes well for Downs’ production in 2024.
- ADP Analysis: Downs is currently being drafted as WR64, No. 172 overall. I have him ranked slightly higher at WR53, making him a solid investment as a late-round pick with upside.
- Final Verdict: Downs may face target competition, but his role as a slot receiver and the potential for improved offensive efficiency make him a worthy target in the final rounds of fantasy drafts. Top-36 production from a player drafted outside the top 60 at his position is certainly worth the gamble.
[the_ad_group id=”71495″]
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Josh Downs
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Downs is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus WR rankings instead.Â
49) Jordan Addison, WR | Minnesota Vikings
50) Jakobi Meyers, WR | Las Vegas Raiders
51) Tyler Lockett, WR | Seattle Seahawks
52) Christian Watson, WR | Green Bay Packers
53) Mike Williams, WR | New York Jets
54) Josh Downs, WR | Indianapolis Colts
55) Romeo Doubs, WR | Green Bay Packers
56) Adonai Mitchell, WR | Indianapolis Colts
57) Brandin Cooks, WR | Dallas Cowboys
58) Jerry Jeudy, WR | Cleveland Browns
59) Khalil Shakir, WR | Buffalo Bills
Josh Downs’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
Let’s get the obvious out of the way first. No one on this team is a threat to Michael Pittman Jr.’s target share. Pittman is going to remain the alpha. In an offense that will feature significantly fewer pass attempts than last season’s 574, that’s going to create a challenge for anyone else to return fantasy value.
Additionally, the Colts added WR Adonai Mitchell in the second round of this year’s NFL Draft. That means Downs is facing increased target competition for a smaller target pie. Right out of the gate, that’s a whole lot of bad for Downs’ fantasy value.
There is plenty of good, though. Mitchell projects to be a Z receiver at the NFL level. Downs ran 74.7% of his routes from the slot last year. He’s going to be the Colts’ primary slot receiver.
The Colts ran 11 personnel 77% of the time last season, the third-highest rate in the league. Even if Mitchell plays ahead of Downs in two-receiver sets, the Colts run enough three-receiver sets for Downs to have a chance to earn plenty of targets.
Just as important is how Downs actually played as a rookie. He only commanded a 17.9% target share, but he was pretty effective at getting open, especially against man coverage. Downs was also quite adept at helping his quarterback out after the play broke down. With a QB like Richardson who is capable of extending plays, that bodes very well for Downs this season.
Although Downs only averaged 9.2 fantasy points per game, he showcased his upside in a stellar stretch from Weeks 3-8. Over that period, Downs had five games with at least 13 fantasy points, including one game with 23.5.
Is Downs a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Even with reduced passing volume this season, the offense should be more efficient with Richardson. Downs is the favorite to be second in targets behind Pittman. Combined with historical precedent that sophomore WRs are very good investments, there’s reasonable upside here.
At the time of this writing, Downs’ ADP sat at WR64, No. 172 overall. However, it seems likely that by the time you draft, it ticks down a bit due to the high ankle sprain he sustained in the first week of August.
The initial estimate is that Downs will miss about a month. That puts him tentatively on schedule to make it back for Week 1. At worst, he should only miss the first week or two of the season. However, as we’ve seen in the past, high ankle sprains are very debilitating injuries. They actually take up to 4-6 months to fully heal; players return in 4-6 weeks because that’s when they are recovered enough to play. But the injury lingers and it often impacts their productivity.
While this has me less bullish on Downs as a result, if you draft him, he’s going to be the last wide receiver on your bench. The opportunity cost could not be much less.
It’s difficult to see Downs’ upside much higher than that of a WR3/4. However, it’s also difficult to see many WRs going around Downs’ ADP or later with the potential to be much better. Top-36 production from a player drafted outside the top 60 at his position is certainly worth drafting. I think all of us would sign up for that right now from any of our late-round picks.
I have Downs ranked as my WR53. I like to draft young players, especially rookies and sophomores. Even with the injury, Downs is absolutely worth considering in the final rounds of fantasy drafts.
