Josh Allen went from a player deemed a project at the NFL level to arguably the best quarterback in the NFL and 2022 dynasty fantasy football leagues. Leading one of the NFL’s powerhouse offenses, what should managers expect out of Allen for the 2022 fantasy season?
Josh Allen’s dynasty profile for 2022
What Allen has done is nothing short of remarkable. For the first two seasons, Allen was a “project,” but his arm talent and rushing ability kept him on the radar of dynasty managers. In his first two seasons, Allen completed 56.3% of his passes and threw for 5,163 yards with 30 touchdowns to 21 interceptions. The only thing which helped him was his rushing ability, a critical aspect for a QB’s upside in fantasy. During those seasons, Allen posted 1,141 yards with 17 TDs on the ground.
In 2019, Allen was 49th of 69 QBs in catchable-pass percentage (70.5%) and 53rd in on-target throws (63.8%), per Sports Info Solutions. Additionally, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, his -3.7 expected completion percentage was fifth-worst amongst all tracked QBs. He never even threw for over 270 yards in a game.
Then, 2020 hits, and wow … did it hit. Allen finished as the QB1 in fantasy and became just the third QB since 2014 to cross the 400-point threshold (405.2). Not only was Allen tied for the third-most consistent QB in weekly finishes (62.5% as a QB1), but his seven games inside the top three were the most among all signal-callers. Allen generated over 4,500 passing yards, 421 rushing yards, and 45 touchdowns while on his way to a second-place finish in MVP voting.
2021 showed this was not a fluke at all. Allen was once again the QB1 and became the first player ever to have multiple 400-point seasons in fantasy history. Throwing for 4,407 yards with 36 passing TDs and 6 rushing TDs, Allen was a top-12 QB 11 times with seven games inside the top three. Once again, Allen topped the list as the most consistent QB while giving a substantial weekly upside.
Allen is the No. 1 quarterback in dynasty fantasy formats
To do it once is one thing. When you do it in back-to-back seasons, that’s a pattern. In my eyes, Allen has passed Patrick Mahomes as the top-ranked quarterback heading into the 2022 NFL season.
If anything, Allen is in an even better spot this season. Stefon Diggs is unquestionably one of the top receivers in the NFL. That hasn’t changed. But the growth of Gabriel Davis can only help. Also, fantasy managers cannot overlook the addition of Jamison Crowder.
He comes in and takes the role of Cole Beasley and can take the same 100 targets and do even more with them — Beasley did little after the catch. In PPR leagues, Crowder is someone I want on every team in the late rounds. Throw in O.J. Howard to pair with Dawson Knox, a healthy CB Tre’Davious White, and EDGE Von Miller on defense, and the Bills are the team to beat in the stacked AFC.
If you have Allen already on your dynasty roster, then you have, in my opinion, one of the most valuable players in all of dynasty. Barring something catastrophic happening, I don’t see Allen falling off anytime soon. His rushing ability, especially inside the red zone, raises his floor to a level few can match.
Fantasy projection for Allen
The Bills went from a 54.9% pass rate in 2019 (26th) to a pass-happy 61.7% in 2020 (11th). Last season, they were 13th in passing at 59% but were one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL, finishing fourth in EPA and eighth in EPA/dropback. They were a rare blend of explosiveness and efficiency.
I don’t foresee much changing as the Bills know who they are, and they know what works. You don’t get to this point and suddenly reshuffle the deck. The only question I have is whether or not the Bills get out of the gates a bit slow. Former offensive coordinator Brian Daboll became the head coach of the Giants. Anytime there is change, there is an adjustment period. Buffalo helped mitigate this by promoting QB coach Ken Dorsey to offensive coordinator.
While Daboll gets the credit as the person who helped Allen’s development, Dorsey was just as involved since joining the team in 2019. He is engrained in the organization and the scheme, so I don’t see things changing. The only difference will be how Dorsey calls a game compared to what Daboll did. However, once again, he knows what works with Allen, which is what matters.
Buffalo wants to throw the ball and get their receivers on the field. Over 81% of their plays last season had 3+ receivers with 4+ on nearly 10%, one of the highest rates in the NFL. When I consider that, along with the improvements on both sides, I wouldn’t be surprised if Allen has his best season yet. 40-45 touchdowns with 5,200 total yards are well within the possibility for Allen in 2022.