Josh Allen’s Best Ball Fantasy Outlook: Is the Bills QB the Safest Pick Out There?

The perfect combination of safety and upside, should Best Ball drafters pay a premium to select Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen?

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen has been an elite fantasy quarterback for four consecutive seasons. He possesses a perfect combination of passing and rushing prowess, making him the ideal fantasy QB. But with that comes an increased cost. Should fantasy football managers pay up for Allen in Best Ball drafts?

Josh Allen’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook

Ever since his third-year breakout in 2020, Allen has been an elite QB1. Fantasy managers often have to decide between stability and upside. Allen provides both.

Allen’s worst season since 2020 was actually this past year when he “only” averaged 24.2 fantasy points per game. Although his fantasy points per game have declined each of the past three seasons, he’s finished as the overall QB1 in three of his last four.

The only reason he was third in 2022 was because of how good Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts and Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes were. Overall, Allen has been the best fantasy quarterback over the past four years.

There really aren’t enough superlatives to cover Allen as both an NFL QB and a fantasy asset. He’s an elite QB1 who also is his team’s primary goal-line back. That gives him both the highest floor and highest ceiling in fantasy football.

Allen had the second-least-efficient rushing season of his career, but he still recorded 15 touchdowns on the ground. In total, Allen accounted for 44 touchdowns last season. He scored 20+ fantasy points 13 times and had just two games below 16 points all season. There’s an argument to be made he is the single safest pick in all of fantasy football.

Should You Draft Allen in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?

The issue with any elite quarterback is always going to be cost. We know what we’re getting with Allen. He’s not going to fail you, and he’s a weekly difference maker at a position that doesn’t have many of them. But it’s also a position where you only need to start one player, and you can find competent starters much later in drafts. The opportunity cost of taking Allen is high.

While Allen is very much deserving of being a second-round pick, if he remains over a full round ahead of every other quarterback, he’s not going to be worth it. Hurts, Mahomes, and Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson have both proven to have the same upside as Allen.

KEEP READING: Fantasy Football Best Ball Strategy

If you’re the type of person who does many Best Ball drafts, it’s absolutely worth building one around Allen in the second round. There’s value in having the best quarterback in fantasy, and you can overcome the deficit at either wide receiver or running back more easily in Best Ball than in managed leagues.

However, on an individual league basis, I just can’t get behind taking Allen so far ahead of every other quarterback.

With the fantasy football season behind us, why not start preparing for your rookie drafts with our dynasty rookie rankings? Additionally, as you look to improve your team heading into 2024, our dynasty trade calculator can help you find the perfect deal to boost your championship chances.

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