Have the Green Bay Packers really managed to strike gold with three consecutive starting quarterbacks? The jury is still out on Jordan Love, but his first NFL season as a full-time starter under center was highly encouraging.
Does Love’s success last year suggest he could have an even better fantasy football season in 2024?
Should You Select Jordan Love at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 72nd Overall (QB8)
- Impressive First Year as Starter: In his first full season as the Packers’ starting quarterback, Love threw for 4,159 yards and 32 touchdowns, finishing as the QB5 overall in fantasy football in 2023. This was a remarkable achievement, especially considering none of his receivers topped 65 receptions or 800 yards.
- Solid Rushing Production: Love added 247 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground, further boosting his fantasy value. His ability to produce both through the air and on the ground makes him a dual-threat option at quarterback.
- Early Season Struggles: Love’s performance wasn’t without its challenges. From Weeks 3-9, he ranked as the QB16 overall, struggling with consistency, throwing six touchdowns and eight interceptions. This stretch led to some doubts about his future as the Packers’ franchise quarterback.
- Strong Finish: Love rebounded impressively in the latter half of the season. From Week 10 onward, he was the QB3 overall, averaging 20.9 fantasy points per game with 20 touchdown passes and only three interceptions. This surge in production came despite the absence of his top deep threat, Christian Watson, for much of the time.
- Downfield Passing Success: Love’s ability to push the ball downfield was a key factor in his success. He ranked second in air yards (4,851) and third in passing plays of 30+ yards. If his young receiving corps continues to develop, Love could maintain or even improve his production in 2024.
- ADP Analysis: Love’s ADP of QB8 in the sixth round indicates strong confidence from fantasy managers in his ability to replicate or surpass his 2023 success. However, he is being drafted ahead of established quarterbacks like Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy, and Jared Goff, all of whom have longer track records and potentially better surrounding talent.
- Final Verdict: While Love offers considerable fantasy upside, especially with his young supporting cast potentially improving, his current ADP in the sixth round may be a bit steep. Given the other quarterbacks available a round or two later with proven fantasy success, it might be wiser to target those options if you’re looking for value at the position.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Jordan Love
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Love is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus QB rankings instead.
103) Jake Ferguson, TE | Dallas Cowboys
104) Brock Bowers, TE | Las Vegas Raiders
105) Rome Odunze, WR | Chicago Bears
106) Curtis Samuel, WR | Buffalo Bills
107) Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | Seattle Seahawks
108) Jordan Love, QB | Green Bay Packers
109) Zach Charbonnet, RB | Seattle Seahawks
110) Jerome Ford, RB | Cleveland Browns
111) Jameson Williams, WR | Detroit Lions
112) Jordan Addison, WR | Minnesota Vikings
113) Blake Corum, RB | Los Angeles Rams
Jordan Love’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Love had impossible shoes to fill heading into his year as the starting quarterback of the Packers, but he did a pretty impressive job if we are being honest with ourselves. His 4,159 passing yards and 32 passing TDs helped him finish as the QB5 overall in fantasy football in 2023.
This feat becomes even more impressive when you take into consideration he didn’t have a single receiver top 65 receptions or 800 yards receiving last year.
Sure, Love’s rushing production of 247 yards and four scores shouldn’t be overlooked. Yet, the fact he was productive through the air without a clear go-to receiver in this offense speaks to his great first season under center.
Love’s first season under center didn’t come without its fair share of growing pains. From Weeks 3-9, Love was the QB16 overall with just 1,324 passing yards, six passing scores, and eight interceptions. One could argue this six-game stretch may have even started to cast some doubt about his future as the franchise quarterback in Green Bay.
Fortunately for Love’s truthers, he went on a fantasy tear over the final nine games. From Week 10 through the rest of the regular season, Love was the QB3 overall with an average of 20.9 fantasy points per game with 20 touchdown passes to just three picks.
Taking into consideration that he was operating without his best deep threat — Christian Watson — for a vast majority of that timeframe, it becomes easy to see why Love is a popular fantasy breakout candidate in 2024.
Love accomplished this outstanding season by consistently pushing the ball down the field in 2023. His 4,851 air yards — which ranked second — helped him generate the third most passing plays of 30+ yards in the league.
If Watson can stay healthy and the other collection of young pass-catchers — which includes Jayden Reed, Dontavyion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft — can showcase some improvement in their sophomore seasons, there is reason to believe in Love finishing as a top five fantasy quarterback again in 2024.
Is Love a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Love’s ADP of No. 72 overall, coming off the board as the QB8 in the sixth round, certainly suggests fantasy managers believe his first year under center was not a fluke. For some additional context, Love is currently being drafted ahead of Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy, and Jared Goff.
I understand his first year as the unquestioned starter was both productive and encouraging, but I would argue all of those players have a much longer track record of fantasy success with arguably better weapons in the passing game heading into 2024.
Still, Love’s fantasy upside certainly exists with the young core of receivers possibly watching their play improve alongside their quarterback. The fifth round seems a little bit expensive on draft day but certainly isn’t a reach by any stretch … I would just simply prefer to go in another direction in the fifth round and live with settling on one of the other quarterbacks mentioned a round or two later.