The returns fantasy managers have seen from Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor over the last two seasons have been a bit disappointing. Yet, he enters this offseason with a settled contract situation in an offense with breakout potential in 2024.
Can Taylor make a return trip to the group of elite fantasy football options at the RB position this season?
Jonathan Taylor’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Taylor’s 2023 campaign was a rough journey for fantasy managers, one filled with drama, injuries, and flashes of former greatness.
Taylor started the season on injured reserve with an ankle injury that cost him the first four games of the season. He also missed another three games with a thumb injury over the back half of the season. In total, injuries have cost Taylor a total of 13 games over the last two seasons.
Unfortunately for fantasy managers who rolled the dice on Taylor early in their fantasy drafts, he wasn’t a league-winning type producer even when he was on the field in 2023. To be brutally honest, Zack Moss was a huge thorn in Taylor’s fantasy side all season with his 183 carries for 794 yards and seven total TDs, which was nearly identical to Taylor’s 2023 stat line of 169 carries for 741 yards and eight TDs.
Taylor was frustratingly stuck in a timeshare for two weeks after returning to the lineup from IR, logging a combined 14 carries for 37 yards in Weeks 5 and 6. Yet, Taylor’s overall volume ramped back up to workhorse status from Week 7 through the rest of the season, as he averaged 21 total touches for 99 total yards per game.
Additionally, Taylor still proved effective as an elusive playmaker with 3.12 yards after contact per attempt — which ranked 10th at the RB position last year.
This usage towards the end of the season suggests Taylor should still be in the RB1 conversation entering 2024, especially if head coach Shane Steichen is able to unlock the elite potential of franchise quarterback Anthony Richardson this year.
Additionally, I don’t see a running back on the Colts’ roster who poses a similar threat to the one Moss did last season on Taylor’s overall volume.
Now, could Richardson slightly impact Taylor’s TD production with his elite dual-threat ability? Yes, it is certainly possible when you look at the impact of players like Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen, who vulture away TDs from running backs. Yet, Taylor is still an elite short-yardage option, which makes him a threat to score 10+ touchdowns in 2024.
His passing-catching floor is hard to project with such a limited sample size of Richardson under center last year, but with Evan Hull and Tyler Goodson as the team’s complementary options, Taylor could lose some work on passing downs, but nothing that should be considered alarming.
Taylor could still realistically be in the mix for around 40 receptions this year, which is the exact mark he hit back in 2021 for his RB1 overall season.
Is Taylor a Good Fantasy Pick?
Taylor’s ADP at No. 11 overall in the first round as the RB5 overall off the board certainly suggests fantasy managers still believe in Taylor’s high fantasy ceiling entering the 2024 NFL season. For some additional context, Taylor is currently being drafted behind Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, and Saquon Barkley at the RB position.
The threat of Richardson stealing away a significant amount of rushing touchdowns away from Taylor near the goal line is the most problematic thing plaguing his profile entering his fifth NFL season.
These concerns are legit, but shouldn’t we also be optimistic about Taylor’s explosive-play capabilities going through the roof with the threat of Richardson on the field in this retooled rushing attack?
To me, there are far more positives than negatives in his profile entering the year — which makes Taylor worthy of his current price tag at the end of the first round of your fantasy draft in 2024.