The Los Angeles Chargers are trying to move to 3-1 on Sunday, while the Tennessee Titans will be searching for their first win on Monday Night Football — but their starting running backs are listed back-to-back in PFN’s Consensus Week 4 rankings.
Tennessee’s Tony Pollard is RB20 and the Chargers’ J.K. Dobbins is RB21 in this week’s rankings. Which back should fantasy football managers lean toward this weekend?
Should You Start J.K. Dobbins or Tony Pollard in Week 4?
Dobbins’ Fantasy Outlook This Week
NFL teams clearly didn’t expect this kind of production from Dobbins in 2024. In March, the Bolts gave the 25-year-old a one-year deal worth the veteran’s minimum; the pact contained just $50,000 in guaranteed money. Injuries had forced Dobbins to miss 42 of his last 51 games when he reached free agency in March, so clubs were understandably wary of committing to the former second-round pick.
But Dobbins has delivered for the Chargers through three games. He posted 130+ rushing yards and a touchdown in Weeks 1 and 2, both Los Angeles victories. Dobbins paces the NFL with 7.4 yards per attempt. He’s the only RB in the league averaging three yards before and after contact.
Dobbins ranks first among qualified running backs in explosive run rate (16.7%), but he’s also been consistent on a down-to-down basis. The ex-Baltimore Ravens’ rushing success rate (45.2%) is seventh among RBs.
The Chargers signed another former Raven — Gus Edwards — this offseason, but the club’s coaching staff may have already seen enough. While Dobbins had averaged just five more snaps than Edwards through Week 2, he played 14 more snaps than his backfield partner in Week 3. Dobbins saw 18 opportunities (15 rushes, three targets) while Edwards handled three carries and received zero looks in the passing game.
John Harbaugh’s team likes to pound the rock as much as any team in the league. The Bolts rank third in rushing rate over expectation, suggesting they’re willing to run the ball in situations where the box count, down and distance, and other factors typically indicate a pass.
The Kansas City Chiefs — L.A.’s Week 4 opponent — rank third-worst in rushing success rate allowed, but that’s skewed by playing Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Week 1. The Chiefs held the Cincinnati Bengals and Atlanta Falcons to under 90 rushing yards each in Weeks 2 and 3. K.C. has given up just 38.3 fantasy points to running backs this season, the sixth-fewest in the NFL.
The Chargers are 7.5-point home underdogs to the Chiefs, making Sunday’s offensive environment somewhat concerning. If Los Angeles gets down early to Patrick Mahomes and Co., they might have to eschew the run and start throwing at a high volume.
Even then, Dobbins remains more than viable. He’s out-snapped Edwards 47-25 on passing plays, running 38 routes to Edwards’ 18.
Of course, who will throw the ball to Dobbins and Los Angeles’ other pass catchers remains a question. Justin Herbert (high-ankle sprain) was limited in every practice this week and is questionable for Sunday’s game. Backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke would lower the ceiling and floor for the Chargers’ offensive attack.
Herbert isn’t L.A.’s only injury question mark. They’ll be without left tackle Rashawn Slater (pectoral) in Week 4, while rookie right tackle Joe Alt (knee) is questionable but didn’t practice all week.
Pollard’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
While it took until Week 3 for Dobbins to consolidate the Chargers’ workload, Pollard has been the Titans’ RB1 since Day 1.
Head coach Brian Callahan said holdover Tyjae Spears would serve as a co-starter with Pollard, but the former Dallas Cowboy has been Tennessee’s lead back since inking a three-year deal worth $21.75 million in March.
Pollard has played on at least 62% of the Titans’ offensive snaps in every game this season. He’s leading Spears in carries (39 vs. 12), routes (58 vs. 45), and targets (14 vs. 10). Pollard has taken four of Tennessee’s five RB carries inside the red zone and its only RB rush inside the 10-yard line.
Opportunities shouldn’t be a problem for Pollard, but how valuable will those opportunities be? The Titans’ offense ranks 28th in points and dead last in expected points added (EPA) per play. No quarterback has lost more EPA off of turnovers in 2023 than Will Levis, who seems to make a back-breaking play every week.
Pollard isn’t a poor play in Week 4 by any means, but we’d take Dobbins. Herbert still has a chance to play this week, giving Dobbins a better opportunity to score on Sunday than Pollard will have against the Miami Dolphins on Monday.