Los Angeles Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins was surprisingly sharp in his Week 1 performance. But was it enough for fantasy football managers to start Dobbins over Gus Edwards, who was expected by many to be the Chargers’ main man in the backfield?
Here is the fantasy outlook for Week 2 for both J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards.
Should You Start J.K. Dobbins or Gus Edwards This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Dobbins is the player to start. His projected 11.2 points include a projection of 45 rush yards, one reception, and 10 receiving yards. That outperforms the consensus projection for Edwards (7.7 points, 41 rush yards, one reception, and five receiving yards).
My ranking for these two Chargers running backs aligns with the consensus. If Week 1 was any indication, the Chargers showed that they prefer Dobbins to be on the field more than Edwards.
Dobbins’ Fantasy Outlook This Week
Dobbins’ performance last week showed he was all the way back from last season’s Achilles injury in Week 1 that sidelined him for the rest of the season. Although he carried the ball only 10 times, that was enough for him to gain 135 yards on the ground, the second-highest rushing total in a game in Dobbins’ career.
Three of Dobbins’ 10 carries were for 10 or more yards, including a 12-yard touchdown run. These big-play moments were no doubt a promising sign for fantasy managers. Dobbins’ other big runs included some of 46 and 61 yards, leading to 22.9 fantasy points, the fourth-most among running backs in Week 1.
While it’s not realistic to expect similar numbers from Dobbins in Week 2, perhaps the biggest edge for fantasy managers when deciding between the two in fantasy lineups is the time spent on the field.
Dobbins was on the field for 33 offensive snaps last week (58% of L.A.’s offensive snaps), while Edwards was on the field for only 24 (42%).
Edwards’ Fantasy Outlook This Week
Despite being on the field for nine fewer offensive snaps than Dobbins last week, Edwards actually had one more rush attempt (11) than Dobbins (10). However, Edwards only managed 26 rushing yards, 109 fewer than Dobbins. That, combined with his inability to get in the end zone, were reasons why Edwards finished with only 3.8 fantasy points.
There are reasons for fantasy managers to expect a bounce-back effort from Edwards at some point, particularly when it comes to touchdowns. Last season, Edwards had 13 rushing touchdowns with the Baltimore Ravens, tied for the third-most in the NFL among running backs.
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
In addition, considering he averages almost five yards a carry for his career (4.8), it’s not a reach for fantasy managers to expect Edwards to do better than the 2.4 yards per carry he averaged last week.
Edwards also is nowhere close to being the receiving threat that Dobbins is. In 70 career games, Edwards has just 31 receptions, 12 of which came last season (in 17 games).
While it’s understandable to assume that Edwards will be able to produce better numbers going forward, it could also be assumed that Dobbins appears to be the Chargers’ main option at running back at this point.
Kyle Soppe’s Week 2 Fantasy Outlook for Dobbins and Edwards
J.K. Dobbins: Was there a more impressive player in Week 1 than Dobbins? He became the third Chargers back this millennium to have multiple carries of 45+ yards in a single game (LaDainian Tomlinson and Michael Turner) and was running so hard that he earned a 59.3% snap share in a backfield that was believed to be Gus Edwards’ to open the season.
Harbaugh may not be a fantasy-friendly head coach, but he did tell us heading into last week that he’d ride the hot hand in the running game and he stayed true to that.
Of course, there are two sides to that coin. What happens when the big plays don’t happen?
Dobbins has played 25 games in his 4+ seasons as a pro, and that creates reasonable doubt when it comes to evaluating his long-term value.
But that’s not what this article is about. The touch count is never going to be elite, but the “hot hand” approach suggests that we should get another 12-15 touch afternoon in a good spot this week, and that lands Dobbins as a RB2 for me that I’m comfortable plugging in.
Selling Dobbins is an easy suggestion, but is anyone buying given his résumé? Enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts. Wins this time of year mean just as much as those in November when it comes to qualifying for the postseason.
Gus Edwards: We knew Edwards’ role was going to be thin and straightforward – pray for scoring chances.
Personally, that’s not a profile I’m comfortable chasing. If I am going to go that direction, it’s going to be in the form of an Ezekiel Elliott type who plays for an elite offense and has some versatility in his profile. That’s not what Edwards brings to the table, and with Dobbins producing at the level he did in Week 1, what is the touch upside here?
Despite all of the success Dobbins experienced last Sunday, Edwards still did have the edge in red-zone touches. He’s not a player you give a second thought to in September – he’s a desperation play late in the season.
Edwards remains a roster-worthy player in most formats, even with very little in the way of short-term expectations.