Through the first four years of WR Jerry Jeudy’s NFL career, most would consider him a bit of a fantasy disappointment after failing to emerge as one of the elite pass catchers in the league during his time with the Denver Broncos.
Yet, he has been presented with a fresh start after being traded to the Cleveland Browns this offseason. Can fantasy football managers expect Jeudy to live up to his perceived potential as a member of the Browns in 2024?
Should You Select Jerry Jeudy at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 143rd Overall (WR56)
- Disappointing 2023 Season: After finishing as WR22 in 2022, Jeudy regressed in 2023, finishing as WR50 with 54 receptions for 758 yards and two touchdowns. His decline came despite high hopes under new head coach Sean Payton.
- Advanced Metrics Decline: Jeudy’s 1.68 yards per route run (43rd among qualified WRs) and 30% contested-catch rate (82nd among qualified WRs) were concerning signs that highlighted his struggles in 2023.
- New Opportunities in Cleveland: Jeudy’s trade to the Browns gives him a fresh start, but he faces stiff competition for targets from Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and Elijah Moore. This crowded receiving corps could limit his fantasy upside.
- Potential Pitfalls: While Jeudy remains a skilled route runner with the ability to generate separation, his target share in Cleveland is uncertain. The Browns’ passing volume will depend on Deshaun Watson’s performance and the health of Nick Chubb, adding more variables to Jeudy’s outlook.
- WR4 Production with WR2 Name Recognition: Throughout his career, Jeudy has been a WR4 with the name recognition of a WR2. His move to Cleveland doesn’t offer enough certainty to project him as a top-36 receiver in 2024.
- ADP Analysis: Jeudy’s current ADP at WR56 suggests fantasy managers are cautious about his potential in Cleveland. He’s being drafted after players like Romeo Doubs and Mike Williams, who is returning from a torn ACL. While Jeudy’s talent makes him a decent pick in the 12th round, his upside is capped by the competition for targets in Cleveland.
- Final Verdict: Jeudy has the talent to contribute, but the crowded receiving corps in Cleveland and his lackluster 2023 season make him a risky pick at his current ADP. Other options in this range may offer more upside and reliability for your fantasy roster.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Jerry Jeudy
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Jeudy is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus WR rankings instead.
53) Mike Williams, WR | New York Jets
54) Josh Downs, WR | Indianapolis Colts
55) Romeo Doubs, WR | Green Bay Packers
56) Adonai Mitchell, WR | Indianapolis Colts
57) Brandin Cooks, WR | Dallas Cowboys
58) Jerry Jeudy, WR | Cleveland Browns
59) Khalil Shakir, WR | Buffalo Bills
60) Rashid Shaheed, WR | New Orleans Saints
61) Joshua Palmer, WR | Los Angeles Chargers
62) Gabe Davis, WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
63) DeMario Douglas, WR | New England Patriots
Jerry Jeudy’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
After Jeudy managed to finish as the WR22 overall in full-PPR formats in 2022, fantasy managers had high hopes for him with the arrival of new head coach Sean Payton taking command of the Broncos’ offense.
Unfortunately, Jeudy appeared to regress in Payton’s system, with his teammate Courtland Sutton scoring 10 receiving TDs and finishing the year as the WR35 to Jeudy’s WR50 in 2023.
In 2023, Jeudy finished with just 54 receptions for 758 yards and two scores on 87 targets in 16 games played. These marks were all steps in the wrong direction when compared with his production during a career 2022 season.
Other worrisome signs could be found in some of Jeudy’s advanced analytics, which included a rough 1.68 yards per route run (43rd amongst qualified WRs) and a contested-catch rate of just 30% (82nd amongst qualified WRs).
Do these numbers require some context? Sure. A closer look at the tape will show you that Wilson helped prevent some big plays from Jeudy materializing last year with either poor ball placement, premature breakdowns in protection, or not seeing him altogether. In fact, here is a small collection of the examples throughout the article.
This is one hilarious "Russell Wilson missing wide-open Jerry Jeudy" piece of film. pic.twitter.com/zRKrtbco63
— Jake Burns (@jake_burns18)
The reason these clips are relevant is because I don’t believe Jeudy is an ineffective wide receiver that can’t be productive in the right system. He can still generate separation as a crafty route runner with great tempo variation, suddenness/burst at the breakpoint, and stem IQ.
Yet, his move to Cleveland brings some additional pitfalls to his fantasy outlook in 2024.
Amari Cooper has been the team’s clear-cut top WR for the last two years. David Njoku had an excellent season which resulted in a career year across the board. And Elijah Moore is far from a scrub who saw 104 targets in 2023. These talented pass catchers don’t even include some of the other capable prospects on the roster like Cedric Tillman, David Bell, and Jamari Thrash.
I still don't understand this play by Russell Wilson. He has Jeudy wide open on what looks like is supposed to be a dig that Wilson massively overthrows. Wilson's decision making was terrible last night, but I feel like this throw was significantly worse. pic.twitter.com/HwJ8LfYGn3
— Brian O'Connell (@BpoFSU)
Do I believe Jeudy is a better player than that latter trio? Yes, but it’s hard to say he’s definitely a better candidate than the first three players mentioned.
Despite Deshaun Watson missing the majority of the 2023 season, the Browns actually threw at the fifth-highest rate of any team in the league last year. Will this trend continue into this year?
This was the play right before the game-ending interception by Russell Wilson. Jerry Jeudy comes wide open, but the pressure — which was relentless from the Texans — forced Wilson to get throw a tick too early.
Otherwise? Denver almost certainly wins. pic.twitter.com/vQdvg8B82X
— Matt Verderame (@MattVerderame)
Potentially, the production the team gets from Watson and the health of Nick Chubb could play big factors in the offensive output this upcoming season. This makes it a bit difficult to pinpoint Jeudy’s target share heading into his first season with Cleveland.
Ultimately, Jeudy has been a WR4 with WR2 name recognition throughout the majority of his fantasy career. Despite some of the exciting flashes we have seen from the former first round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, his fantasy outlook in this Cleveland offense doesn’t bring enough certainty to project him as a top 36 at the position in 2024.
Is Jeudy a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Jeudy’s ADP of No. 143 overall as the WR56 off the board suggests fantasy managers aren’t exactly high on the Alabama product heading into the 2024 season. For some additional context, Jeudy is currently being drafted after Romeo Doubs and Mike Williams — that latter who is coming off of a torn ACL from last year — in the 11th round of fantasy drafts.
Is there a chance that Jeudy is being a bit too overlooked after his disappointing 2023 season and overall production as a Bronco? Sure, but his target competition actually gets far more difficult with the move to Cleveland.
It’s hard to label a talent like Jeudy a bad pick in the 12th round, but his upside certainly feels a bit capped with players like Cooper, Njoku, and Moore all competing for targets in this Cleveland offense. Personally, I’d rather have other options than Jeudy at this price point.