The Los Angeles Chargers have been running the ball like crazy to start this season, while the Cleveland Browns rank outside the top 20 in rush attempts after Week 2.
Does this mean fantasy football managers should blindly choose to start J.K. Dobbins over Jerome Ford this weekend? Let’s take a look at the fantasy outlook for each player heading into Week 3.
Projecting Jerome Ford’s and J.K. Dobbins’ Fantasy Output in Week 3
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Dobbins is the player to start. His projected 11.1 points include 44 rushing yards, two receptions, and 10 receiving yards.
That stat line narrowly outperforms the consensus for Ford (10.8 points), despite some of Ford’s projections (45 rushing yards, two receptions, 17 receiving yards) looking better than Dobbins.
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However, when you isolate my rankings, I see Ford outperforming Dobbins this week. The biggest reason behind this prediction is the opposing defenses each will face.
While Dobbins is facing the league’s fifth-best run defense — the Pittsburgh Steelers — on their home field, Ford and the Browns are hosting the league’s fifth-worst defense — the New York Giants — Sunday.
Jerome Ford Fantasy Outlook This Week
Although early, Ford’s production this season from a fantasy standpoint has been night and day.
Ford ranks 23rd among running backs in fantasy points this season (26.3), but most of those came in Week 1 vs. the Dallas Cowboys (18.9). A large portion of those points in Week 2 came on one run.
ROMEEEEEE! @JeromeFord down the sidelines for 36yds! pic.twitter.com/i5oDJvzyYb
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) September 15, 2024
After getting 18 touches in Week 1, Ford only touched the ball eight times last week. And even though Ford finished with 64 rushing yards — 20 more than in Week 1 — he was targeted just twice last week (seven targets in Week 1).
On the other hand, Ford is facing the Giants on the road, a team that ranks 28th in rush defense (163.0 rush YPG) and allowed Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson to run for a career-high 133 yards last week.
J.K. Dobbins Fantasy Outlook This Week
Dobbins is off to a terrific start to his Chargers career, leading the NFL in both rush yards (266) and yards per rush (9.9). He entered Week 3 as the No. 4 running back in fantasy, averaging 21.5 fantasy points per game.
Not only is he one of only two players to reach the century mark in rushing yards in each of the first two weeks this season (San Francisco 49ers Jordan Mason being the other), but Dobbins is only the fourth player in franchise history to have back-to-back games with at least 130 rush yards, the other three being LaDainian Tomlinson (three times), Gary Anderson and Don Woods.
JK DOBBINS RUNNING THROUGH EVERYBODY.
📺: #LACvsCAR on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/IrANF2mYTR— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
From a fantasy standpoint, Dobbins ranks fourth in fantasy points among running backs (43.0) and is one of only three running backs to record at least 20 fantasy points in each of the first two weeks. Needless to say, De’Von Achane and Alvin Kamara are nice company.
With quarterback Justin Herbert (ankle) listed as questionable for Sunday’s game, perhaps the need to grind out the game on the ground will be more important than before this season.
However, as great as Dobbins has been this season, he and the Chargers will be facing a Steelers front that held Bijan Robinson to 68 rushing yards in Week 1 and limited Javonte Williams to just 17 yards on the ground in Week 2.
The question for fantasy managers heading into Week 3 is, do you trust the player more than the opponent? While that may be true in Ford’s case, it’s a more difficult question to answer where Dobbins is concerned given his unsustainable pace and the quality of his opponent.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Dobbins and Ford in Week 3
Dobbins: We can argue all day about whether Dobbins is a good sell for the rest of the season, but how about we put that on hold and just enjoy the ride?
Everyone in your league is well aware of the injury profile and the unsustainable nature of some of these big runs. So, instead of selling him for pennies on the dollar, ride this out. Dobbins is the first player to open a season with consecutive 130-yard performances since Warrick Dunn for the Falcons in 2006, and he’s looked remarkable in doing so.
He’s a fantasy starter in all formats, and while banking on him to be the fourth-highest scorer at the position (his current standing) is a bit optimistic, he’s still a top-20 option despite a difficult matchup.
Ford: He piled up the fantasy points in garbage time during the Week 1 blowout loss to the Cowboys, but when the “gimme” looks in the passing game dried up in a competitive contest with the Jaguars, he was left without much value at all.
Ford is a boom-or-bust running back, a profile I’m more willing to start in an offense with some level of stability – the Browns aren’t that. For the season, I’m very out on 2023’s worst running back in terms of gain rate, but for Week 3, he slides into RB2 status against a Giants defense that allows the most yards per carry after contact to running backs this season (4.83).
Stats in this article are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated