Cleveland Browns RB Jerome Ford had a solid season filling in for an injured Nick Chubb last year. With Chubb returning at some point during the 2024 season, Ford’s fantasy football value is in a tricky spot. How should fantasy managers approach him in Best Ball drafts?
Jerome Ford’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
The most difficult players to evaluate for fantasy are those impacted by injuries. In this case, it is not Ford who is hurt, but rather his backfield mate, Chubb.
Last season, Ford took over as the Browns’ lead back after Chubb tore his knee in Week 2. Ford went on to have a very solid season, averaging 12.4 fantasy points per game and finishing as the overall RB25.
Ford showed solid lead-back skills. He handled 204 carries and commanded a very respectable 10.6% target share.
Joe Flacco again as Jerome Ford does his best BeastMode at the end of another TD score! pic.twitter.com/88r4s6hI9D
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 29, 2023
As a runner, Ford wasn’t overly flashy. He rarely made defenders miss, as evidenced by an evaded tackles per touch rate outside the top 40. But he still managed to average 3.54 yards created per touch, 20th in the league.
Ford can be best described as reliable. He could get what was blocked — maybe a little more — and provide a stabilizing force in the Browns’ backfield. Nick Chubb, he was not.
As of before the NFL Draft, Ford remains the clear RB1 on the Browns. They may sign a veteran of relevance, or draft a running back on Day 2. But regardless, fantasy managers should expect Ford to open the season in the same role he had last year.
The difficulty in evaluating Ford, especially in Best Ball, is that Ford’s role has an expiration date. Complicating matters even further is the fact that we don’t know when that expiration date is.
Should You Draft Ford in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
We know Chubb is not going to be ready for Week 1. I’ll stop short of saying we know Chubb will be back at some point this season because setbacks can happen, but Chubb likely will return this year. What we don’t know is exactly how Chubb’s return will negatively impact Ford.
Obviously, Ford’s volume will decrease when Chubb returns. But it’s unlikely Chubb will immediately return to his previous role. His knee injury was significant. As a result, the Browns will likely ease him back into action.
Let’s say Chubb can return around midseason. That would give Ford about eight weeks as the clear RB1. He’ll likely have another 3-4 as the 1a in a committee. Then, over fantasy’s most important weeks, Ford could fade into the background as more of a backup.
At the same time, there’s no guarantee Chubb can get back up to speed in time to fully retake the lead role. If that happens, Ford’s ADP outside the top 40 is going to have been severely underpriced.
The farther away from the season you draft, the less clarity we will have on the situation. That makes drafting Ford riskier, but also potentially more advantageous.
Unfortunately, I don’t have the right answer. That’s not knowable until the season plays out. But this far removed from the start of the season, gambling on Chubb’s recovery going worse than expected is not the worst idea.
Plus, even when Chubb returns, Ford is still one of the league’s most valuable handcuffs.
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As we look ahead to the 2024 fantasy football season, why not start preparing for your rookie drafts with our dynasty rookie rankings? Additionally, as you look to improve your team heading into 2024, our dynasty trade calculator can help you find the perfect deal to boost your championship chances.