Player injuries are the most common catalyst behind difficult start/sit decisions. With Antonio Gibson dealing with a stress fracture in his shin, does that improve the outlook for J.D. McKissic enough to warrant starting him in fantasy football lineups?
Update:Â Antonio Gibson is active for the Washington Football Team’s Week 5 game.
Should you start J.D. McKissic in Week 5?
Through the first four weeks of the season, McKissic has been startable twice and completely useless to fantasy managers the other two times. What should we do with him in Week 5?
J.D. McKissic’s usage will likely remain the same
The news of Gibson dealing with a stress fracture in his shin definitely sounds alarming, but fantasy managers need to take a step back and assess the situation.
Gibson played with the injury in Week 4, and it’s entirely possible he played through it in Week 3 as well. He saw his usual workload while McKissic’s usage remained as the primary passing-down back.
Gibson touched the ball 16 times in Week 4, while McKissic saw 12 touches himself. If not for a fourth-quarter 30-yard touchdown, McKissic would’ve posted yet another dud.
This week’s game projects to be low scoring
The over/under for this week’s matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Washington Football Team is one of the lowest on the slate at just 43.5. The ideal game script for McKissic is one where the Football Team is trailing or running the hurry-up offense. As 2.5-point home underdogs against a weak offense, it’s difficult to see that happening.
The best argument for McKissic lies in how opposing running backs have produced against the Saints through the first month of the season — 58% of fantasy points scored by running backs against the Saints have come via the passing game.
McKissic only has 3 more targets (14) than Gibson (11) on the season, but McKissic’s targets are much more deliberate. Both he and Gibson have a lone receiving touchdown on the season.
The way to beat the Saints is through the air
The Saints allow the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. They’ve allowed just 2 rushing touchdowns and 1 receiving touchdown this season. However, they’ve allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
The path to moving the ball on the Saints is through the air. The question we need to answer is whether that will result in more burn for McKissic? With Dyami Brown out and Curtis Samuel still hobbled by his groin injury, Ron Rivera may deploy more two-running back sets, giving McKissic more opportunities to be on the field.
McKissic remains a risky RB3 option
Despite the various factors suggesting McKissic may see increased work, I don’t see it happening. McKissic remains a low-floor RB3 play that could easily be victimized by an effective Gibson or a low-scoring slog of a game.
When considering whether to start McKissic, fantasy managers either want games that can turn into shootouts or games where the Football Team is likely to trail. In Week 5, we have neither.
Of course, both of those scenarios may play out anyway, but we need to make decisions based on what is most likely to happen. As such, fantasy managers should only start McKissic if they need to.
