Not many fans or pundits picked the Washington Commanders to come into Cincinnati and hang nearly 40 points on the Bengals, but that’s exactly what happened. Washington won a 38-33 “Monday Night Football” thriller due in large part to the efforts of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. At 2-1 on the season, can they keep on rolling and make a playoff push in the NFC?
The Commanders Shock the Bengals Led by Jayden Daniels’ Breakout Performance
JAYDEN DANIELS ARE YOU KIDDING ME?! 🤯😱
WHAT A THROW‼️
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/uHY7Qd397g
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 24, 2024
Daniels had impressed plenty of viewers through his first couple of NFL games, but he stepped it up to a new level against the Bengals. He set a rookie record with a completion rate of 91.3%, completing 21 of his 23 passes. In fact, Daniels picked up more touchdowns (three; two passing, one on the ground) than incompletions on the night.
Curiously enough, Daniels threw his first career passing touchdown to offensive lineman Trent Scott. However, in addition to that fun wrinkle, he also made some truly remarkable throws, in addition to finishing as Washington’s leading rusher with 39 yards.
Can the Commanders Make Noise in the NFC?
The short answer is “No.” Washington should be a lot of fun with Daniels at the helm and will score plenty of points in some games, but they won’t be real contenders. This isn’t entirely their fault; with teams like the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints off to surprise hot starts, the NFC looks like it could be more competitive than expected.
Regression to the mean is also a key concept to understand when assessing a team’s outlook. The Commanders were due for some positive regression heading into this game, having performed much better outside of the red zone than in that part of the field. Now, they’ve surged up to a level that’s probably unsustainable, and there’s a high likelihood that they’ll soon fall back to earth.
Additionally, the Cincinnati defense is absolutely terrible and is likely to give up several similar scoring outputs throughout this season. This was a great day for Daniels and the rest of Washington’s offense to build some confidence, but it shouldn’t be viewed as something to expect from them every week, as just about every defense they see will be better.
Of course, they did put up respectable 20- and 21-point outputs against better defenses — the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New York Giants, respectively — but neither of those units is elite. Improvement is likely for a rookie such as Daniels, but this game already looks like a serious outlier.
In a historic sense, it certainly was; this contest was the first since 1940 to feature no turnovers or punts, with every possession ending with a touchdown, a successful or missed field goal, or the end of a half.
That brings us to another key point: the Commanders’ defense is a problem as well. There’s a reason the Bengals were able to stay in this game despite both Daniels and the Washington offense’s domination. The Commanders’ secondary is one of the worst in the league and will provide major issues in a division featuring star wideouts like CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, and Malik Nabers.
Simply put, this is likely the only game in which they’ll be able to win without getting a single stop or turnover. Expect plenty of defensive meltdowns in the future, ending with defeat more often than not.
It’s also worth noting that the biggest question about Daniels was never whether or not he had the capability to play at the NFL level but rather about staying healthy. He picked up several bumps and bruises in college and already had to temporarily exit a game in the NFL. As good as the rookie quarterback has looked through three games, we haven’t yet had the opportunity to learn any more about his ability to stay healthy in the long run.