Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels may be a rookie, but that doesn’t preclude him from being a tremendous fantasy football asset. As long as he can stay on the field, Daniels’ rushing ability alone should be enough to make him a viable QB1.
If things break right, just how good might Daniels be?
Jayden Daniels’ 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Even with early first-round picks, there’s always a chance some of them won’t start right away. That’s not the case with Daniels. He is going to start Week 1. That alleviates one concern immediately.
There are other concerns about his NFL readiness, particularly as a passer. But to be honest, I’m not sure why.
Daniels’ collegiate numbers were pretty impressive. In his final season at LSU, Daniels completed 72.2% of his passes and threw for 40 touchdowns against just four interceptions.
Of course, that doesn’t mean he will be a great NFL passer. However, I do think concerns that he’s just a runner are a bit overblown.
That brings us to the most appealing part of his game — the rushing. When discussing any mobile quarterback, but particularly unproven ones (guys like Daniels and Anthony Richardson), I always go back to this tweet from Fantasy Life’s Ian Hartitz.
Per-game fantasy football ranks of QBs with 125+ carries in a season in NFL history (min. 8 games):
1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 8, 12, 17 (2020 Cam)
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz)
Daniels ran the ball 135 times for 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns last year in college, and 125 carries amounts to 7.35 per game. I’m quite confident Daniels will average around eight or nine carries per game. The only player to not finish as a QB1 who met this criteria was a completely finished Cam Newton in 2020.
If Daniels is merely adequate as a passer, he is a good bet to finish in the QB10-12 range. If Daniels is better than expected, and this Commanders offense overperforms, Daniels has legitimate top-five upside.
It’s very important in fantasy football to have an elite QB. Typically, to get one, you have to spend a premium pick. Daniels gives fantasy managers a decent chance at one without the prohibitive cost associated with the likes of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, or Lamar Jackson.
Daniels already carries a top-12 ADP, going off the board as the QB21, No. 107 overall. However, if historical precedent is to be believed — and I do believe it — Daniels is being drafted at his floor.
Of course, Daniels’ true floor is he gets hurt and you have no quarterback. But I’m not about to back away from a potential difference-making QB because of the chance he might get injured.
This Commanders’ offense has a chance to be better than expected. Terry McLaurin is a very reliable WR1. Austin Ekeler provides another excellent option in the passing game. If Luke McCaffrey can emerge as a viable second option (sorry, I have no hope for Jahan Dotson), we could see an offense that scores in excess of 40 touchdowns.
Daniels is my QB10. I know ranking a player right in line with consensus does not exactly scream “all in.” But rest assured, I am, in fact, all in on Daniels. It’s just that there are so many good QBs this year.
If you don’t take a sure thing at QB early, be sure to grab Daniels in the middle rounds. He is the best combination of floor and upside outside of the elite guys.
