Both James Conner of the Arizona Cardinals and the Green Bay Packers’ Josh Jacobs are coming off decent, but not great, performances in Week 1.
So, which running back is a better choice for fantasy football managers to start in Week 2?
Should You Start James Conner or Josh Jacobs This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Conner is the player to start.
His projected 12.9 points include a projection of 51 rush yards, two receptions, and 16 receiving yards. That outperforms the consensus projections for Jacobs (12.0 points). Jacobs is also projected to finish with 54 rush yards, two receptions, and 17 receiving yards.
However, when you isolate my rankings, I see Jacobs outperforming Conner. I believe because of the Packers’ injury issues, especially at the quarterback position, Jacobs will be featured more in Week 2.
Conner’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Conner had a productive season opener in the Cardinals’ loss to the Buffalo Bills. Conner rushed for 50 yards, recorded a three-yard touchdown run and also tallied a two-point conversion. He also caught three passes for 33 yards and finished with 19.3 fantasy points.
Conner’s Week 1 performance continued a strong finish to his 2023 season. Conner’s final five games last season saw him average 23.9 fantasy points per game. Since Week 13 of last season, Conner is averaging 121.0 scrimmage yards per game (second in NFL) and has eight scrimmage touchdowns in that span (tied for most in NFL).
In Week 2, the Cardinals host the Los Angeles Rams, which allowed 163 rushing yards in Week 1 vs. the Detroit Lions. So that should be an appealing aspect for fantasy managers who are considering Conner in Week 2.
Conner faced the Rams once last season in Week 12, and his performance was one of his worst of the season. Conner finished with just 27 rushing yards and caught four passes for only five yards. His 7.2 fantasy points in that came were the second fewest he had in any game last season.
Jacobs’ Fantasy Outlook This Week
Jacobs also had a good Week 1 performance, with 104 scrimmage yards on 18 touches. However, he failed to get in the end zone, leading to a final fantasy score of 12.4 points.
A back injury made Jacobs a limited participant in practice all week, including Friday. However, he was not given an injury designation, so all signs point to Jacobs being ready to go Sunday vs. the Indianapolis Colts.
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
And given the Packers’ injury issues on offense, they will likely put a lot of the offense on Jacobs’ shoulders this week. Though listed as questionable, quarterback Jordan Love (knee) is not expected to play Sunday, putting the offense in the hands of Malik Willis.
In addition, wide receiver Jayden Reed (calf/shin) was a late add to Friday’s injury report and is questionable to play.
What does this all mean? It means that Jacobs should see far more than 18 touches on Sunday. And, that is fine with him, since over the last four seasons, only the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Najee Harris (999) has more touches than Jacobs (952).
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Conner and Jacobs
James Conner: Conner run, Conner catch, Conner catch, Conner run, Conner run, Conner run, Conner run.
That was how the Cardinals opened their season. They are committed to Conner, with the veteran coming off of a career year; while I love the sentiment here, the production wasn’t what I had hoped to see.
In 2023, Conner gained at least five yards on 38.5% of his carries, an elite rate that spiked with his ability to hit holes fast. That rate was a surprise given the number of NFL reps he has taken, and my fear is that it’s time to pay the piper. Last week, just 6.3% of his attempts picked up a handful of yards, an unacceptable rate.
He will likely finish this season somewhere in the middle of those extremes, but expecting a repeat of his storybook 2023 isn’t wise. Conner is best viewed as a viable RB2 moving forward, with some potential upside if/when Arizona unlocks this passing game and backs defenses off the line of scrimmage.
Josh Jacobs: The Colts were a bottom-10 rush defense in terms of success rate last season and allowed 22 touchdowns on the ground, the fourth-most in the NFL.
The matchup is strong, but I can’t rank Jacobs much higher than a run-of-the-mill RB2 that I’m not all that interested in for DFS purposes.
Halfway through the second quarter of the season opener, Jacobs’ rushing yardage share (5.4%) was trending near the percentage of the cap his contract accounts for (2%). He was able to produce a viable final line with 104 yards on 18 touches, but it was about as underwhelming as a triple-digit day can be.
Against the Eagles, 100% of Jacobs’ rushing yards before contact came on two of his 16 attempts, and 41.8% of his yards after contact also came on those two outlier rushes. Those carries, obviously, still count, but with the majority of his touches netting very little, I’m skeptical as to the quality of his touches in an offense now that demands very little respect through the air.
On the plus side, Jacobs out-snapped Emanuel Wilson 42-15 last week. He is the featured back, but that title isn’t as appealing today as it was entering the season. Is this situation much different than the one Jacobs left behind in Vegas?