The Arizona Cardinals’ backfield has been a bit of a headache this year. Chase Edmonds and James Conner have been cannibalizing each others’ fantasy football upside. That said, both have been serviceable as RB2/flex plays this season. There’s no denying that the offense down in the desert is humming, with MVP front-runner Kyler Murray leading the charge.
Let’s talk specifically about Conner, the 26-year-old running back formerly of Pittsburgh Steelers breakout fame. What are we doing with Conner this week?
James Conner’s career is trending the wrong way
If you’re going to be a fantasy-viable running back that isn’t heavily utilized in the passing game, scoring touchdowns is a big help.
I know that yards per carry (ypc) somewhat skew the stats in terms of running back success — a big part of that number has to do with the blocking up front. However, when you see a steady trend in either direction by a player that has played on multiple teams, the common denominator is the running back.
Conner is averaging 3.8 ypc this year, the lowest of his career. When he burst onto the scene in Pittsburgh as the fill-in for Le’Veon Bell, Conner averaged 4.5 ypc in each of his first two years. In an injury-riddled 2019 season, it dropped to 4.0. He returned to 4.3 ypc last year, but he now finds himself at his low point.
Everything about his profile has taken a hit, except for his ability to find the end zone. Conner had 9 carries of 20+ yards in 2018. He hasn’t logged one this year. He was once used as a prolific pass catcher, handling over 30 receptions each of the last two years, with a high of 55 in 2018. But because of the presence of Edmonds, Conner has only 5 catches this year.
His touchdowns are saving his value
They don’t call the end zone “pay dirt” for nothing. This is where Conner is making his money, both in real life and for fantasy managers. Despite having a high of only 71 rushing yards in a game this season and only topping 50 yards in three of his other six games, Conner has 6 TDs in the last five weeks.
Conner is getting the work in the red zone, and he’s remarkably efficient at it. He’s had 37 touches in the red zone compared to Edmonds’ 22. Inside the 10-yard line, that split is 18 to 8. All of Conner’s touchdowns have come inside the red zone, while Edmonds has failed to convert any of his 22 red-zone touches into touchdowns.
As long as Conner continues to see work in the red zone in an offense that is one of the most prolific in the NFL, he will have the ability to provide RB2/flex value going forward, including in Arizona’s matchup against the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football.
