Although Ja’Marr Chase was a WR1 last season, he didn’t quite produce at the level fantasy football managers were expecting. If he and QB Joe Burrow stay healthy this season, is there any reason to doubt a return to the ranks of the elite?
Last year, Chase averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game. Those are WR1 numbers but well short of being worthy of a top-five pick. After all, Chase averaged 3.8 points per game fewer than the year before when he finished as the overall WR4. How much should we knock Chase for his WR11 finish last season? Let’s find out.
Should You Select Ja’Marr Chase at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 5th Overall (WR3)
- 2023 Performance: Ja’Marr Chase averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game last season, which are solid WR1 numbers but fell short of top-five pick expectations. He finished as the WR11, a noticeable drop from his WR4 finish the previous year.
- Statistical Consistency: Chase’s production metrics, such as yards per reception and yards per route run, remained relatively stable. However, his target share dropped from 29.3% to 26.3%, impacting his overall production.
- Quarterback Issues: Chase’s performance was affected by QB Joe Burrow’s injuries. Burrow’s calf strain and subsequent wrist injury limited his effectiveness, forcing Chase to rely on backup QB Jake Browning for part of the season.
- 2024 Outlook: With Burrow expected to be fully healthy, there’s optimism that Chase will return to elite WR1 status. Burrow’s recovery and Chase’s stable production metrics suggest a rebound is likely.
- Boom/Bust Concerns: Chase has shown a bit more volatility than other top WR1s like Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and CeeDee Lamb. While he has a high ceiling, he also has a lower weekly floor, with 13 games under 13 fantasy points over the past two seasons.
- ADP Analysis: Chase remains a surefire first-round pick in 2024 fantasy drafts. While there’s a case for him being the first wide receiver off the board, his slight volatility places him as WR3 behind Hill and Lamb in many rankings.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Ja’Marr Chase
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
1) CeeDee Lamb, WR | Dallas Cowboys
2) Christian McCaffrey, RB | San Francisco 49ers
3) Tyreek Hill, WR | Miami Dolphins
4) Bijan Robinson, RB | Atlanta Falcons
5) Breece Hall, RB | New York Jets
6) Ja’Marr Chase, WR | Cincinnati Bengals
7) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | Detroit Lions
8) Justin Jefferson, WR | Minnesota Vikings
9) A.J. Brown, WR | Philadelphia Eagles
10) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | Detroit Lions
11) Garrett Wilson, WR | New York Jets
Chase’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Exactly one year ago, fantasy managers across the land were debating whether Justin Jefferson or Chase should be the No. 1 overall pick (if you didn’t select Christian McCaffrey). Now, while still highly regarded, it seems Chase has fallen out of that conversation.
Whether Chase is actually a bargain in 2024 requires figuring out why he took a step back last year. Chase hauled in 100 balls for 1,216 yards and seven touchdowns in 16 games. His yards per reception only changed by 0.2. Meanwhile, his yards per route run only dropped by 0.12, and his yards per target actually increased by 0.6.
Joe Burrow DEEP SHOT to Ja’Marr Chase 🤯
Buckle up 🍿
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 12, 2023
The biggest factor was his target share dropping from 29.3% to 26.3%. While that’s not a massive decrease, it’s certainly enough to impact his production. Additionally, Chase never really got to play with a healthy Burrow at QB.
First, Burrow’s lingering calf strain clearly hampered his ability to throw the ball. Then, by the time Burrow’s calf got healthy, he tore a ligament in his wrist, ending his season. Chase had to deal with a decreased target share and subpar quarterback play. While Jake Browning played as well as could be expected, he’s still a backup-caliber quarterback.
The good news is Burrow started throwing in early May. There’s no reason to be concerned that he is anything other than 100%. Burrow is key to Chase producing elite WR1 numbers, but that goes for any wide receiver’s quarterback. Injuries happen. Burrow could get hurt again. But if he does, it won’t be because he wasn’t healthy to begin with.
Is Chase a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
If there is one knock on Chase’s fantasy profile, though, he’s been a bit more boom/bust than we’d like from an elite WR1.
Guys like Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and CeeDee Lamb rarely completely disappoint. Their ceilings are just as high as Chase’s, but Chase has a lower weekly floor.
Over the past two seasons (28 games total), Chase has obviously been a WR1, but he’s scored below 13 fantasy points 13 times. To be fair, he’s also scored over 28 fantasy points five times, including three games of 32+ points and an absurd 52-pointer in Week 5 of last season. Even if we go back to Chase’s rookie season, the pattern is the same.
This is what keeps Chase ever so slightly below Hill and Lamb for me. It would also keep him behind Jefferson, but Jefferson lost Kirk Cousins. J.J. McCarthy could end up being incredible. But until we see it, I feel more comfortable with the equally elite talent catching passes from Burrow.
Chase is a surefire first-round pick in 2024 fantasy drafts. I do think there is a case to make him the first wide receiver off the board. However, given what we saw from Hill and Lamb last season, Chase checks in as my WR3.