Ja’Marr Chase has been a WR1 every year of his young career. But last year wasn’t quite at the level we expect, largely due to no fault of his own.
With both he and Joe Burrow fully healthy, should fantasy football managers draft the Cincinnati Bengals WR this season?
Ja’Marr Chase’s Fantasy Profile For the 2024 NFL Season
Although Chase still finished as a WR1 last season, his performance wasn’t up to the level we’ve come to expect from the elite receiver.
Chase averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR11. That marked a 3.8 ppg decrease from his previous season, at a time when Chase should be continuing to get better.
Of course, there were extenuating circumstances last year, most notably Burrow’s inability to stay on the field. Chase still caught 100 balls for 1,216 yards and seven touchdowns in 16 games. His yards per reception only changed by 0.2. Meanwhile, his yards per route run only dropped by 0.12, and his yards per target actually increased by 0.6.
His target share dropped from 29.3% to 26.3%. That’s strange, but likely an aberration. A guy like Chase deserves to push a 30% target share. With Tyler Boyd out of the picture, the passing attack should be even more consolidated around Chase and Tee Higgins.
The biggest knock on Chase’s fantasy profile, if there really is one, is his tendency to be a bit more boom/bust than the other top receivers.
Guys like Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and CeeDee Lamb rarely completely disappoint. Their ceilings are just as high as Chase’s, but Chase has a lower weekly floor.
Over the past two seasons (28 games total), Chase has obviously been a WR1, but he’s scored below 13 fantasy points 13 times. To be fair, he’s also scored over 28 fantasy points five times, including three games of 32+ points and an absurd 52-pointer in Week 5 of last season. Even if we go back to Chase’s rookie season, the pattern is the same.
The good news is I think we are going to get a more consistent Chase this season, and it won’t come at the expense of his spike weeks.
With the Bengals moving on from Joe Mixon, this already pass-heavy offense is poised to lean even more on Burrow’s arm. Chase’s target share should tick back up, and it should also be part of a larger total pie.
Is Chase a Good Fantasy Pick?
Unfortunately, we are not getting any sort of discount on Chase based on last year’s dip in production. He’s going as the WR3 and No. 5 overall player.
I have Chase ranked as my WR3, but he is firmly below Lamb and Hill, who are in a tier by themselves. However, I do have Chase clearly ahead of my WR5, Amon-Ra St. Brown.
I am right in line with consensus on Chase’s WR value. However, I am slightly behind in overall value, as based on my draft philosophy I would take the big three RBs before I took a wide receiver. That means the earliest I would consider Chase is No. 6 overall.
With that said, if you prefer wide receivers to running backs, Chase is draftable as soon as Christian McCaffrey, Lamb, and Hill are off the board.
