After surprising many with his team-leading performance in 2020, New England Patriots WR Jakobi Meyers enters the fantasy football season under the radar once again based on his ADP. How does Meyers fit into a revamped offense, and is his 2021 fantasy outlook better than what many give him credit for?
Jakobi Meyers’ fantasy outlook for 2021
While the New England Patriots’ offense struggled, many overlooked the season Meyers put together. He led the Patriots’ receivers in virtually all categories, totaling 59 receptions on 81 targets (19.2% share) for 729 yards. Yet, the third-year receiver failed to score a touchdown. In fairness, it took until Week 11 for New England to throw their first touchdown to a WR.
When we look at Meyers, the 14 games played last season are misleading. In reality, he played in only 11 games. Furthermore, he saw just 22 snaps in the first three games combined — he was inactive or DNP in Weeks 4 and 6. From a per-game basis, this is massive.
Meyers totaled 45 yards or more in nine of 11 games (81.8%), including two with 110+ yards. From Week 7 and on, Meyers was the WR22 in PPR formats with 12.8 ppg, averaging 7.3 targets, 5.3 receptions, and 65.6 yards. These are not numbers to overlook.
What if I told you that Meyers had one less catch and 19 fewer yards than Brandon Aiyuk?
There was never any doubt the Patriots would bring in more receivers. But I don’t think anyone would call Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne world-beaters. Julian Edelman retired, and N’Keal Harry’s agent has requested a trade. So, if anything, Meyers’ position on the depth chart has not changed.
I would not be surprised if Meyers generates a repeat performance and leads the Patriots again in 2021. Yet, he is completely forgotten about — people have not caught on to his potential fantasy outlook.Â
Fantasy projection
The Patriots are going to be a better offense and team in general next year. Not only did the offense struggle, but they had eight players on defense opt out.
If we look at their previous five-year average, the stats paint a clear picture. From 2015 to 2019, New England averaged 27.8 points on 66.8 plays per game. Moreover, the Patriots averaged 37 passing attempts for 269.2 yards. In 2020, points (20.4 ppg) and plays (61.2 per game) fell, and passing slid to just 27.5 attempts and 180.6 yards. It could have been even uglier if not for the fourth-best rushing offense (31.4 attempts for 146.6 yards).
We also have to assume that Bourne, Agholor, Jonnu Smith, and Hunter Henry will be involved. It’s not like you go out and spend $136 million on pass catchers and not expect them to take over a massive role in the offense.Â
We have to monitor the competition between Bourne and Meyers for the crucial slot role following Edelman’s retirement. In 58 games for the 49ers (2017 to 2020), Bourne recorded 218 catches for 1,769 yards and 11 touchdowns.
In the end, no one is more qualified to be the slot in the Patriots offense than Meyers, and he has earned the right to the role. While early, projections have Meyers around 85-90 targets with 55- 60 receptions for 750-770 yards and 3-4 touchdowns.
Jakobi Meyers’ ADP
According to Sleeper, Meyers has an ADP of 198 in half-PPR formats. Meanwhile, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Meyers has a much earlier ADP of 149.03. On Fleaflicker, it’s a bit later at 213.5.
Should you draft Meyers in 2021 for fantasy?
In short, a resounding yes. You can not find a player with a better potential fantasy outlook at his ADP than Meyers. As mentioned, he averaged 12.8 ppg from Week 7 on. Most guys in this range won’t even score 12.8 points in a single game.
We love to take dart throws for late-round gems to fill out the roster. How often can you throw one of those darts at a player who has already proven himself? Very rarely. There is literally nothing to lose and everything to gain in selecting Meyers, who could be a weekly WR3/4 and have weeks where he finishes as a WR2.
