Jake Ferguson has been a model of consistency across four seasons at Wisconsin, culminating in a career-high 46 receptions his senior year. Could Ferguson bring consistent value to dynasty fantasy football managers during his impending NFL career, and if so, how should managers assess him after landing with the Dallas Cowboys?
Jake Ferguson’s dynasty fantasy profile
Ferguson served as a cornerstone offensive weapon for four seasons. Now, which factors could impact his fantasy floor and ceiling in the NFL?
Strengths
In Ferguson’s scouting report, PFN colleague Ian Cummings has an excellent breakdown on Ferguson’s strengths, including strong hands, fighting through contact, and “straight-line explosiveness off the line of scrimmage.” He’s also adept at changing directions and mid-air body control. A solid 70% career catch rate helps, and Ian even describes how many of his drops were due to inaccurate passes.
Physically, Ferguson has what it takes to be a successful NFL tight end, with enough long speed to take on linebackers in intermediate and deep zones. He’s also a capable run-after-catch threat and has shown big-play ability since his freshman campaign, where he generated 40+ yards in six of his first seven games along with 3 scores.
Weaknesses
Ferguson is a large human at 6’5″, 250 pounds. However, he’s not yet a proficient blocker. Defenders are too easily able to knock him off balance. There’s also room for improvement with his route running.
The former issue might prevent him from being an every-down TE, at least early in his NFL career. The latter issue may force him to expand his repertoire in a friendly system that plays to his strengths.
A big question mark concerns how Ferguson would be utilized in a relatively crowded offense. He led all Wisconsin players in receptions in 2021, in part because Danny Davis missed four games. Ferguson also led all teammates in 2020, but he was the only receiver who played every game.
His best catch rate (77% in 2019) occurred when the team had a clear-cut No. 1 wideout in Quintez Cephus, who consistently drew defenders away from Ferguson and others. But this was also Ferguson’s worst per-game statistical season, as he was not the primary or co-primary offensive option.
Ferguson’s injury history
This past season, Ferguson exited early with a chest injury vs. Michigan. Notably, he didn’t miss his next game, though. He actually played in all 13 of Wisconsin’s contests as a senior. However, the year before, he was only able to suit up for seven games. He also nicked up his arm heading into his junior campaign, though it had no impact on his playability.
In fact, Ferguson has competed in all 47 of Wisconsin’s games during his tenure. So, at least for now, he can be viewed as a durable tight end with no apparent physical yellow flags heading into the NFL Draft.
Ferguson’s dynasty value with the Cowboys
Prior to the NFL Draft, the Cowboys were on my list of potential landing spots. The Cowboys’ two most recent prominent tight ends were Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin. The former was a fourth-round pick, and the latter was a UDFA.
This was never a team that was going to spend significant draft capital on a tight end. They have far more pressing concerns. What they do need is depth at the position, though. Spending a Day 3 pick on Ferguson is exactly what the Cowboys should’ve done to replace Jarwin.
Ferguson will ideally operate as Schultz’s backup. Cowboys coaches will work with him to improve his blocking. It’s entirely possible he works his way into the TE2 role ahead of Jeremy Sprinkle during his rookie year.
From a fantasy perspective, Ferguson is not going to matter as a rookie. The Cowboys have Schultz on a one-year deal. They hope to give him an extension, but it hasn’t happened yet. Best-case scenario, Schultz walks and Ferguson gets a chance to be the Cowboys’ TE1 in 2023. The more likely scenario, though, is the Cowboys extend Schultz and Ferguson is a backup for the foreseeable future.
