Much of the success fantasy football managers saw from the Dallas Cowboys‘ high-powered offense last year has been credited to Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. But Jake Ferguson quietly put together an excellent fantasy season from the TE position in 2023.
Can fantasy managers expect Ferguson to be even more productive in 2024?
Jake Ferguson’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
One probably can’t claim Ferguson came out of nowhere when he produced his TE9 breakout season last year, but I also wouldn’t go so far as to say many fantasy managers expected him to register 71 receptions for 761 yards and five scores on 102 targets last year, either.
Ferguson’s rookie production — just 19 receptions for 174 yards and two scores in 2022 —working behind Dalton Schultz did little to foreshadow his excellent second season in the league.
Ferguson was one of just seven TEs to see 100+ targets last season. In case you were wondering why that matters, all seven of those tight ends finish as top-10 producers at the position in full-PPR formats in 2023. That has been the exact case for every TE to see 100+ targets since 2021.
To expand on the targets conversation, Ferguson finished fifth in the NFL with 23 red-zone targets in 2023. The other four players who saw more were Lamb, Davante Adams, Calvin Ridley, and Tyreek Hill. That is some great company to keep.
Of course, it did help that the Cowboys led the league with 71 trips to the red zone last year. Even if they don’t repeat that same level of production this year, Ferguson’s role in the red area is fantastic for his fantasy ceiling.
Another thing sure to help his fantasy production this year was the lack of additions to the passing game the team made this offseason. The fact that the only noteworthy addition to this Cowboys’ receiver room came in the form of a Day 3 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft — SE Missouri State WR Ryan Flournoy — suggests Ferguson’s role could look pretty similar this upcoming season.
Ferguson’s ADP of No. 94 overall as the TE10 off the board in the back half of the eighth round is a very interesting price point for fantasy managers searching for great value at tight end. For some additional context, Ferguson is currently being drafted after David Njoku, George Kittle, and Evan Engram, but just before T.J. Hockenson and Brock Bowers.
On paper, Ferguson has an excellent case to be the second most-targeted player in a highly productive offense, just behind a dynamic All-Pro caliber receiver. To be honest, his fantasy situation is amongst the best at the position heading into the 2024 NFL season.
Yet, when trying to decipher who is the more dynamic talent amongst the group of five tight ends just mentioned going right around where Ferguson is being drafted, one could certainly make the argument Ferguson is the least physically-talented pass catcher among the bunch.
Talent doesn’t always trump situation in the world of fantasy football, though. In fact, you could make an argument that the Cowboys may be required to throw the ball even more in 2024 due to their lack of a dynamic playmaker in the running game and multiple losses along the offensive line unit.
Speaking of the offensive line, losing Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz could force Prescott to get the ball out of his hands quicker if the front can’t hold up in protection consistently.
Ultimately, Ferguson’s production last year and his outlook this year are both big positives. He may not draw huge reactions from your league mates during the draft, but I would feel very comfortable spending my eighth-round pick on him to be my starter at TE this season.
Should You Select Jake Ferguson at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 85th Overall (TE10)
- Solid Value in 2023: Ferguson finished as the overall TE10 last season, which was impressive given his low draft cost. However, he only averaged 10.4 fantasy points per game, indicating limited upside.
- Red Zone Usage: Ferguson was a favorite target for Dak Prescott in the red zone, leading the league with 25 targets inside the 20-yard line. Although he scored just five touchdowns, there’s potential for more this season.
- ADP Analysis: Ferguson is currently being drafted as TE10, No. 85 overall. I have him ranked similarly, but his price point may be too high for a tight end with a capped ceiling. While he’s unlikely to be a bust, better value can be found later in drafts.
- Final Verdict: Ferguson is a solid tight end option, but his ADP may not offer much value. Fantasy managers should consider prioritizing tight ends with higher upside or waiting to draft a tight end later.