After a slow start to his rookie year, the fantasy football managers who invested third-round draft capital into the Detroit Lions‘ dynamic back were rewarded with an exceptional amount of high-end fantasy production over the back half of the 2023 season.
Set to still split work with another productive veteran ball carrier again this year, what is the fantasy outlook for Jahmyr Gibbs heading into the 2024 NFL season?
Jahmyr Gibbs’ 2024 Fantasy Forecast
The old saying “It’s not how you start that’s important but how well you finish” certainly feels like it applied to Gibbs’ rookie season.
Gibbs saw just 22 carries through the first month of the season when David Montgomery was active, which admittedly had some fantasy managers nervous after failing to log a top-15 fantasy finish at the RB position through the first six weeks of the NFL season.
Yet, once his role expanded in the middle of the season, Gibbs entered the league-winner territory in 2023.
From Week 7 through the end of the season, Gibbs was the overall RB4 in PPR formats behind only San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey, Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Rachaad White, and New York Jets RB Breece Hall with 1,012 total yards and 11 TDs.
One commonality between the other three players ahead of him during that span is that not one of those other three ball carriers contended with anyone for touches in their respective backfields. During that time frame alone, David Montgomery swiped seven rushing touchdowns and 135 total touches away from Gibbs.
Overall, Montgomery saw 219 carries for 1,015 rushing yards and 13 rushing TDs. This marks the fifth straight season where Montgomery saw north of 200 carries. His presence is by far the biggest detractor to Gibbs’ ability to reach his true fantasy potential in this Lions’ offense in 2024.
Gibbs saw a total of 234 touches (182 carries and 52 receptions) in 2023 — 15 touches per game — and produced 1,261 total yards and 11 TDs with exceptional per-touch efficiency.
Gibbs’ advanced metrics speak to his excellent production last year, finishing the year inside the top 10 at the position for yards after contact per attempt (2.4), broken tackles (21), and yards per carry (5.2) for backs with more than 180 carries last year.
A large concern for Gibbs’ shareholders heading into his rookie season was his usage as a goal-line back. Fortunately, the Lions did not shy away from giving Gibbs the football inside the five-yard line in 2023, where he saw eight carries and scored five times last season.
Some would argue that the presence of Montgomery limits Gibbs’ upside enough to push him outside of the top four at the position, but his top-shelf per-touch efficiency and expanded role in this high-powered offense should give him enough weekly touches to make him a rock-solid RB1 in 2024.
Remember when I mentioned Gibbs’ price tag being in the third round of fantasy drafts last year? Well, the price to add the second-year back to your squad in 2024 has gone significantly.
Gibbs’ current ADP sits at No. 12 overall, the RB4 off the board, which makes him either a late first-round pick or an early second-round selection in fantasy drafts. Other players currently going in this range are a plethora of receivers with A.J. Brown, Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Drake London.
If you consider McCaffrey to be in a tier of his own, then it would appear Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall are firmly in the second tier at the RB position, with Gibbs headlining the next group of backs, consisting of Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, and Kyren Williams.
All the running backs I just mentioned likely don’t have another player threatening to steal 200+ carries away from them this season — with maybe the exception of Williams if you believe Blake Corum will steal the majority of early down work away from Williams in 2024.
Yet, a dynamic playmaker who produces at an elite per-touch clip like Gibbs doesn’t necessarily require a dominant share of the carries to produce elite fantasy numbers. A great example of this is the early years we saw from Alvin Kamara, who produced RB1, RB3, RB4, and RB9 fantasy finishes to start his career without ever seeing north of 200 carries in a season.
Of course, Kamara caught 81+ passes in each of those years, and while Gibbs will certainly be very involved in the Detroit passing game, I wouldn’t expect his volume to reach those heights in 2024.
Ultimately, Gibbs’ expanded role over the back half of the year certainly suggests he will see enough opportunities in a high-powered offense to warrant this draft price. If his role continues to expand while Montgomery’s weekly touch count is slightly reduced, Gibbs does have an outside shot to finish as the RB1 overall in 2024.