The Detroit Lions scored 26 points in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams last week. They capped the victory by showing that their run game was strong enough to dominate their opponents. With David Montgomery landing in the end zone to seal the win, the world is asking whether we should start Montgomery over Gibbs in Week 2.
In Week 2, the Lions face a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that, although they won in Week 1, is dealing with a plethora of injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
Could we see a healthier, more explosive Gibbs shine this week? Or will we watch Montgomery bully ball his way through the Buccaneers defense? Let’s discuss the Lions’ backfield in Week 2.
Jahmyr Gibbs’ Fantasy Outlook This Week
Gibbs is an explosive running back, so the Lions bucked the trend in the NFL Draft and reached for the young superstar. However, last week, Gibbs looked anything but explosive. He struggled to make his cuts and force defenders to miss like we became accustomed to in 2023.
Gibbs had 11 rushing attempts for 40 yards and four receptions for 34 yards. With the average draft price that came with acquiring Gibbs in fantasy football drafts, we expected more in this high-flying offense.
The issues we heard about Gibbs’ size during the lead-up to his draft came to fruition during this game against the retooled Rams defensive line. Gibbs’ largest rush was only eight yards, which means the defense was too strong and stopped him, or his injury from this offseason still lingers, hampering his game.
David Montgomery’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Montgomery was able to pick up the slack for a hampered Gibbs, creating 5.4 yards per rush on his 17 rushing attempts for 91 total yards. He also scored the game-winning touchdown to add to his fantasy totals. Montgomery was also one of the most clutch running backs in Week 1.
TruMedia ranks Montgomery as the sixth-best running back in rushes that converted to first downs with six total. When the Lions needed a first down, they turned to their veteran running back to move the chains.
Montgomery could create more yardage even when the defenders got their hands on him. He was the 15th-ranked running back in yards after contact per rush with 3.29, which trumped Gibbs’ statistical finish in the same category (2.18).
Should You Start Gibbs or Montgomery This Week?
In Week 2, the Lions will face a strong run-stopping defensive unit in the Buccaneers, which allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards in 2023. However, they can be attacked in the passing game, so we will lean on Gibbs to bring us to the fantasy promise land between the two Lions running backs. The Buccaneers were tied for the fourth-most targets allowed to running backs while being tied for the third-most receptions allowed to the position.
Gibbs should be one week away from the start of his injury, allowing the Lions’ offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, to dial up more opportunities in the passing game for one of the most electrifying backs in the NFL.
Although Gibbs has questions about his injury, he will be higher in the rankings than Montgomery due to the opportunity he has in Week 2. In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Gibbs is the player to start. His 14.8 points and a projected total of over 80 yards help him outscore Mongomery’s projection, who only has 10.9 total fantasy points.
Kyle Soppe’s Week 2 Fantasy Outlook for Montgomery and Gibbs
Jahmyr Gibbs: Is it crazy that I felt underwhelmed by Gibbs last week? He finished with 74 yards, a touchdown, and six targets – and yet, I didn’t leave the game thinking that he lived up to expectations.
That speaks to the bar he has already set. None of his 15 touches gained 15 yards, and David Montgomery had the walk-off touchdown to steal the headlines. If what we got last week was something of a floor, Gibbs might have a path to crack the top tier at the position this season.
The Commanders ran for three scores and gave their running backs 33.3% of the targets against the Bucs last weekend – if the Lions have a similar approach, Gibbs could post his first 20-point effort of the season and prove worthy of the draft capital you spent on him this summer.
David Montgomery: The veteran held a 17-11 carry edge over Gibbs in the overtime win over the Rams, and the Lions made it clear that they trust their backfield in a significant way. To close out Los Angeles, Detroit gave seven straight touches to their running backs (Montgomery put a bow on the victory with back-to-back-to-back carries where the Rams knew exactly what was coming).
I’m going to have both Detroit running backs ranked as starting options for most, if not all, weeks, with the difference being the result of the matchup. This is a great Gibbs spot, and that results in Montgomery falling to the back end of my RB2 rankings, but the scoring equity is enough to justify playing him.
Worry not — the Cardinals next will result in the gap between these two narrowing and me expressing more confidence in Montgomery as a strong play.