The Jacksonville Jaguars will face the Detroit Lions in Week 11. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Jaguars skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 11 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Mac Jones, QB
Mac Jones earned a D+ in our QB+ metric, an identical mark to that of Trevor Lawrence through nine weeks and his fantasy status was even lower. Against the Vikings, his 22 passes yielded just 111 yards with no scores and two interceptions.
The Jags had as many first downs as drives on Sunday and without elite volume, Jones will be swimming upstream to return even QB2 value. The only value he can offer for fantasy managers is weighing down his top two pass catchers with targets.
Trevor Lawrence, QB
Early reports indicate that this is a day-by-day situation when it comes to the health of Trevor Lawrence’s shoulder, but if you’re playing competitive games at this point in the season, you’re not interested in Jacksonville’s QB situation.
I’m tempted to believe that the Jags take a cautious approach given their 2-8 record and their commitment through 2028 to Lawrence. Mac Jones was unable to find success last week, and I fear that is the fate of this offense regardless of who is under center.
Detroit’s D/ST has the potential to post a big number, and if that is your angle, I’d rather see Jones under center.
Tank Bigsby, RB
Tank Bigsby continues to play through an ankle injury and that is prohibitive for a player that was producing splash plays with regularity earlier this season. He was in and out of the lineup last week, and unless we get a clean health report from practices down the stretch, it’s hard for me to get behind Flexing Bigsby given this offense’s limitations.
Over the past three weeks, 100% of Bigsby’s rushing yards have come after contact — this ankle injury is clearly limiting his ability to hit holes that quickly disappear. As things stand right now, I’m operating under the assumption that we won’t get clarity on his health, and that means he’s outside of the Flex conversation for me in Week 11.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB
Travis Etienne Jr. was on the field for 67.4% of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps last week, his first game north of 50% since September. The fantasy box score (43 yards on 12 touches) looks much different if his one-yard TD plunge isn’t overturned, but that is the nature of doing business in an offense like this.
Tank Bigsby is dealing with an ankle injury that continues to pull him out of games for extended stretches, and that opens up the door for fringe Flex-worthy volume. If Bigsby is limited, Etienne’s versatility could prove very valuable in a spot where the Jags figure to be playing from behind from the jump.
I don’t love the fact that he doesn’t have a game with more than 13 carries this season, as the team has seemed unwilling to commit to the run, but if Bigsby’s injury forces their hand, I could be talked into moving Etienne inside of my top 25.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR
I’m ignoring last week from a production standpoint because the Jaguars didn’t have the ball for even 18 minutes, something that rarely happens (it was the lowest time of possession contest this season by more than two full minutes). That limited our ability to truly evaluate what Jacksonville’s offense looks like under Mac Jones — but what we did see was repulsive.
For the day, Jones completed 14 of 22 passes for 111 yards with zero scores and two interceptions. We’ve seen receivers like Calvin Ridley and Courtland Sutton thrive recently despite spotty QB play, but I’m not sure Brian Thomas Jr. is going to be able to do something similar in this offense.
Again, tiny sample, but Gabe Davis earned more targets than BTJ last week, and it’s not as if the rookie has been a consistent force anyway (three games with north of 21 PPR points, and Sunday was his fourth single-digit effort). The talent is real and can be spectacular if given league-average QB play, but that doesn’t seem likely to come in 2024.
I currently have Thomas ranked as a fringe top-40 receiver — not a must-start by any means. In this matchup against an improving Lions defense, I’d rather roll the dice on Jauan Jennings (vs. SEA) or an equally inconsistent profile like Quentin Johnston who at least has more help under center.
Parker Washington, WR
The Parker Washington experiment made sense immediately following the Christian Kirk injury, as it opened up a slot role in an offense that has a pair of receivers who prefer to run vertical routes in Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. The easy projection was to shift Kirk’s usage onto Washington, and while that still didn’t land him as a top-35 option, it was enough of a role to roster in a Trevor Lawrence-led offense that plays from behind on a consistent basis.
Lawrence hasn’t been good this season. Jacksonville couldn’t hold onto the ball under Mac Jones last week against the Vikings, and even if they could have extended a few drives, what motivation would they have had to trust a passing game behind a quarterback who had a higher completion count than QBR?
You’re free to cut ties with Washington and chase the next role change that presents itself in this year of receiver injuries.
Evan Engram, TE
The Mac Jones-led version of this offense was underwhelming for what little we saw of them (time of possession in Week 10 vs. Vikings: 17:41); yet, Evan Engram still earned his eight targets and paid the PPR fantasy bills.
Engram posted a 34.8% on-field target share last week, the fourth-highest rate of his career. I’m not sold that the role is sustainable, but if the play count trends closer to reasonable, I’m as comfortable penciling in Engram for six to nine targets as any tight end outside of the hyper-elite.
Jones lowers Engram’s ceiling, but I’m not sure the floor is drastically different (per our QB+ metric, Jones’ Week 10 grade was on par with Trevor Lawrence’s GPA through nine weeks), and that’s enough to land him in my second tier and deserving of lineup-lock status.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions Trends
Jacksonville Jaguars
Team: The Jaguars have lost three straight games, all to playoff hopefuls (Packers, Eagles, and Vikings). In those games, they’ve been out-scored by a total of 13 points.
QB: Per our QB+ metric, Mac Jones posted a D+ on Sunday, which is the exact average of Trevor Lawrence this season.
Offense: Jacksonville ranks 29th in average time to throw this season, pacing for their third straight bottom-5 finish in that metric.
Defense: The Jaguars had three takeaways last week vs. the Vikings after posting just five all season. Jacksonville hasn’t had consecutive games with multiple takeaways since Weeks 4-6 of last season.
Fantasy: Brian Thomas Jr. has three games with over 21 PPR points and four single-digit performances.
Betting: Unders are 10-2 in the Jaguars’ past 12 games as an underdog of more than seven points.
Detroit Lions
Team: The Lions won last week despite a five-interception game from Jared Goff – the NFL record in such spots now sits at 9-117 since the 1970 merger (this was the first such win since Matt Ryan in 2012).
QB: Over the past two months, Goff has a five-interception game and five games with no more than five incompletions.
Offense: Three of the top-5 teams in rush attempts per game are also top-5 units in terms of yards per pass (Ravens, Eagles, and Lions).
Defense: Detroit allows a touchdown on just 15.8% of opponent drives, the fifth lowest rate in the NFL (Jacksonville is fifth worst in this category at 27.8%).
Fantasy: Jahmyr Gibbs’ boom/bust rate (difference in the percentage of carries gaining 10-plus yards to carries failing to gain any yards) is +2.5% – he’s the only qualified RB with more 10-yard gains than stuff efforts this season.
Betting: Overs are 4-1 in the last five games in which the Lions have been favored by more than seven points (they’ve failed to cover three of the past four).