The Jacksonville Jaguars playoff chances remain strong entering Week 18 after their latest victory. That win ensured the Jaguars’ playoff scenarios this week are very much in their control. However, with the Houston Texans’ and Pittsburgh Steelers’ victories on Saturday, the Jaguars’ margin for error in the race for the postseason is now non-existent.
Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Chances | Week 18 Update
Note that this article was re-written on Jan. 7 at 8:10 a.m. before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been eliminated from the playoffs.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Titans (6-11) defeated Jaguars (9-8)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Jaguars entering Week 18. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Jaguars’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios in Week 18?
According to simulations of the PFN Playoff Predictor, the Jaguars entered Week 18 with around a 90% chance of making the postseason as either the division winner or a Wild Card team. Their chances of winning the AFC South resided at just over 70% as they take on the 5-11 Tennessee Titans in Week 18.
The current standings in the AFC South see the Jaguars sitting at 9-7 just behind the Texans at 10-7, but with a game in hand over Houston. Additionally, Jacksonville can move back to the top of the division in Week 18 thanks to their superiority when it comes to the NFL playoff tiebreaker rules compared to Houston.
MORE: PFN’s Week 18 Power Rankings
The Jaguars and Texans split their Week 3 and Week 12 matchups. However, Jacksonville would finish with the superior record within the division if they beat Tennessee on Sunday. The Texans are 4-2 within the division, while the Jaguars would finish at 5-1.
Therefore, Jacksonville’s scenario for clinching the division is simple. If they win, they will be the No. 4 seed in the AFC and host the Cleveland Browns on Wild Card Weekend. The Texans’ victory over the Colts ensured that the Jaguars would have to win this week as opposed to a tie potentially being enough.
Entering the week, Jacksonville had a potential route into the playoffs via a Wild Card spot. However, that opportunity was removed with the Steelers’ victory over the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday.
That put Pittsburgh at 10-7, which Jacksonville can only match with a victory in Week 18. A Week 18 victory would give them the division, yet the Jaguars cannot finish in a Wild Card spot at the end of Sunday’s action.
Failing to defeat the Titans in Week 18 will end the Jaguars’ season. That scenario seemed almost impossible when Jacksonville was 8-3 entering Week 13 and in the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. However, a run of four defeats in their last five games has left the Jaguars in an all-or-nothing situation entering Sunday morning.
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