In fantasy football, we want good players on good offenses. In our Jacksonville Jaguars fantasy preview, find out just how good this offense can be in 2024. Do fantasy managers want to be drafting the likes of Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, and Trevor Lawrence?
Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Depth Chart
QB
Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, C.J. Beathard
RB
Travis Etienne Jr., D’Ernest Johnson, Tank Bigsby
WR1
Christian Kirk, Parker Washington, Elijah Cooks
WR2
Brian Thomas Jr., Devin Duvernay, Seth Williams
WR3
Gabe Davis, Tim Jones
TE
Evan Engram, Luke Farrell, Brenton Strange
Trevor Lawrence’s Fantasy Outlook
Perhaps Trevor Lawrence will make me look foolish this year, but so far, he’s done nothing but prove he was one of the most overrated, overhyped top prospects in NFL history.
Yes, Lawrence isn’t terrible. He’s not Jamarcus Russell or Sam Bradford. But this was supposed to be the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. Instead, we’ve gotten slightly worse Andy Dalton.
Lawrence had one of the worst rookie seasons you will ever see from a No. 1 overall pick that started every game. He had an excuse, though — the worst head coach in NFL history, Urban Meyer. So, we gave him a mulligan.
As a sophomore, Lawrence was decidedly mediocre outside of a superb five-week stretch in the second half of the season. It was those five weeks that fantasy managers clung to when making him a top-six fantasy QB in 2023.
Last year, Lawrence wholly underwhelmed once again, averaging 17.3 fantasy points per game. Just like the year prior, he had one amazing stretch of games scoring 32.2, 25.6, 25.1, and 20.4 fantasy points in Weeks 11-14. Other than that, he was barely a fantasy QB2.
The problem is not Lawrence’s weapons. It’s not the coaching staff. Lawrence just isn’t special. He’s fine. If he weren’t hyped to the moon as a prospect, he probably wouldn’t even be viewed as that much of a disappointment.
So, what does this mean for fantasy in 2024? Most likely, more of the same. You will get a couple of amazing weeks scattered in the midst of a lot of mid-QB2 performances. Given the depth at the QB position this year, Lawrence is not someone fantasy managers should be targeting.
Travis Etienne Jr.’s Fantasy Outlook
Travis Etienne Jr. is such a tough player to figure out. His coaching staff has openly stated they don’t want to make him a 90% snap-share player. They wanted Tank Bigsby to help take some of the load off last season. That just wasn’t an option when Bigsby turned out to be one of the worst running backs in the NFL.
Realizing this, the Jaguars had no choice but to lean on Etienne. His 74.3% snap share was sixth in the league. The problem with the heavy volume is Etienne was quite inefficient. His 4.6 yards per touch was 34th in the league, and just 3.7% of his runs went for 15+ yards.
The inefficiency itself isn’t a problem for Etienne’s fantasy outlook. We really don’t care as long as the volume remains. But what if the Jaguars figure out a way to reduce Etienne’s volume, and he doesn’t become more efficient? That would be a huge problem for his fantasy value.
#Jaguars RB Travis Etienne has 2 rushing TDs in each of his last 3 games. 🔥
This is the longest active streak in the #NFL, per @IE_NFL.#DUUUVAL
pic.twitter.com/c9MAlxtwys— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 25, 2023
It’s easy to forget how a fantasy season actually went when you’re several months removed. Etienne averaged 16.6 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall RB7. He was great, right…? Not exactly.
Etienne recorded 20+ fantasy points just six times all season. He only finished as an RB1 in eight games, and he posted single-digit fantasy points five times.
The reality of Etienne’s season was that he had a legendary stretch of games from Weeks 5-8, scoring 36.4, 23.3, 22.7, and 25.9 fantasy points, respectively. Over the rest of his games, he averaged 13.4 points.
There’s nothing wrong with that type of production, but I don’t want to pay an RB1 price for it. As a result, Etienne is the type of player fantasy managers should only target at a value.
Christian Kirk’s Fantasy Outlook
Ironically, despite my disinterest in drafting this team’s QB, I am all in on his WR1, Christian Kirk.
Last season, Kirk averaged 12.5 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR33. Taking a backseat to Calvin Ridley, there just wasn’t enough volume for Kirk, who saw his target share drop from 23.2% to 20.8%.
Christian Kirk has 40 receptions for 20+ yards since the 2021 season — 10th-most among NFL WRs (via @IE_NFL). pic.twitter.com/LlagFTwVSL
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 20, 2023
Kirk was top 20 in yards per route run even though he was only targeted on 22.9% of his routes run. He should be featured much more now that Ridley is gone.
The Jaguars may have added two WRs in rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and former Buffalo Bills WR Gabe Davis. However, Thomas is a rookie and not likely to overtake Kirk this season, and Davis is…well…Davis. He’s not a threat to anyone. Kirk should lead the Jaguars in target share.
While the rest of your league mates get hyped up over the rookie, grab the 27-year-old veteran still in his prime. Kirk definitely lacks league-winning upside, but he has the capability to outperform his ADP.
Brian Thomas Jr.’s Fantasy Outlook
On the surface, Brian Thomas Jr. looks a lot like Christian Watson and Quentin Johnston. I know that is not what any fantasy manager wants to hear. But despite those two receivers looking like busts, the archetype is more what we should focus on. If Thomas can do what Watson and Johnston were supposed to be able to do, that’s a very productive NFL receiver.
At 6’3″, 209 pounds, running a 4.33 40-time, Thomas has all the makings of a solid stretch Z. Although he only has one year of college production under his belt, it was truly an incredible year, catching 68 passes for 1,177 yards and 17 touchdowns. And he did it playing alongside Malik Nabers, which is no easy feat.
Thomas should immediately step into the WR2 role for a quarterback, who, despite his flaws, is capable of supporting two fantasy-relevant receivers. Fantasy managers should not fear Davis at all because if Thomas can’t beat out Davis, then he, too, will be a bust. I don’t envision that being the case.
Ridley leaves behind 136 vacated targets. A fair amount of those will go in Thomas’ direction. Don’t overpay for a player who likely caps out as a high-end WR3, but there’s definitely an upside if the price is right.
Evan Engram’s Fantasy Outlook
After a bounce-back 2022 campaign, the arrow should have been firmly pointing up for Evan Engram ahead of the 2023 season. Yet, I didn’t target him because I was concerned the addition of Ridley would negatively impact Engram more than anyone else. Well, that was wrong.
To say Engram was fine wouldn’t do it justice. He excelled. Engram’s 23.8% target share was a career-high and second in the league at the position. Most importantly, he led all tight ends in slot rate, lining up there 45% of the time.
Essentially, Engram was a pseudo-WR eligible at TE. He caught 114 passes for 963 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 13.6 fantasy points per game.
Ridley leaving and Thomas/Davis arriving shouldn’t negatively impact Engram at all – he should have the same role and be similarly productive.
Expecting another top-five season is probably unwise, but Engram looks very appealing once again, as his price continues to be lower than his production.
Jaguars Fantasy Sleepers
The Jaguars are a team that lacks much in the way of fantasy sleepers. Everyone knows about Etienne, Kirk, and Engram. Thomas may be a rookie, but he’s not being slept on. The only player that could reasonably qualify would be Davis, but haven’t we been down this road enough times already?
He commanded a paltry 14.9% target share last season as the WR2 in a Josh Allen offense. At best, he’ll be the fourth option in Jacksonville. There will inevitably be 20-point games, but predicting them will be impossible. Let someone else throw this dart.