The Jacksonville Jaguars face off against the Miami Dolphins in an early-slate contest in Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. The Jaguars go on the road looking to avenge their late-season collapse while the Dolphins aim to prove themselves as legitimate threats and not just an early-season, high-flying foe.
For all information NFL betting and fantasy football related, here is a one-stop shop for the Jaguars at Dolphins season-opening matchup.
Jaguars at Dolphins Odds, Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook are correct as of Sept. 7.
- Moneyline: Jaguars +140, Dolphins -166
- Total: 49
Many people forget that the Jacksonville Jaguars were in the driver’s seat to win the AFC South last season at 8-3 before Trevor Lawrence had to play through injuries for the rest of the season.
There is also a consensus that Lawrence had a down season in 2023, but he was plagued by a combination of unlucky factors, most notably poor wide receiver play. While Lawrence ranked just 22nd in EPA per dropback last season according to TruMedia, he rose all the way up to seventh-best when you adjust for drops, pass protection, and other factors.
Simply put, Lawrence is getting underrated right now, and so are the Jaguars, and they’ll be facing a depleted Dolphins defense.
On the other side, as talented as this Dolphins offense is, they have issues on the offensive line, as their unit was ranked just 25th in the NFL after losing multiple starters this offseason. While the Jaguars don’t have a particularly stout defense, their strength is their EDGE duo in Joshua Hines-Allen and Travon Walker.
I think these are two teams that are nearly evenly matched, so I’ll comfortably take the Jaguars and the points. Moneyline could be enticing, but I feel more confident in the +3.
Prediction: Jaguars 30, Dolphins 27
Pick: Jaguars +3
Jaguars at Dolphins Schedule, Start Time, and More
- Start time: Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, 1 p.m. ET
- Channel: CBS
- Live stream options: Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, CBS All-Access
- Radio Stations: 1010 XL 92.5 JAX Sports Radio, Dolphins Radio Network
- Starting QBs: Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa
The next matchup features an in-state battle as the Jaguars head to Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Dolphins. Despite a hot start to the 2023 season, the Jaguars crashed and burned, losing five of their last six games to end the season with a 9-8 record. They fell shy of an AFC Wild Card berth and lost the AFC South title in the season’s final week.
The Jaguars made free agency moves with a reasonably empty cupboard, signing former Bills WR Gabe Davis and Ravens WR Devin Duvernay. They also drafted former LSU Tigers WR Brian Thomas Jr. with the 23rd pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Christian Kirk returns and slides into the WR1 spot, proving he was worth his monstrous four-year, $72 million contract.
It’s not all unfamiliar for Lawrence, though, as he still has Travis Etienne Jr. and second-year RB Tank Bigsby in the backfield, as well as TE Evan Engram, who is experiencing a career renaissance in Jacksonville, Fla. Etienne looked great in his preseason appearance, scoring a touchdown on a pass from Lawrence in the first game. Bigsby also looked ready to take the next step as the physical presence to Etienne’s finesse with a strong preseason showing.
All these changes on the offense will be significant for their opponent to see if the changes they made on the defense will pay off. The Dolphins’ defense underwent a complete redesign due to free agent departures, signings, and changes to the coaching staff. After Vic Fangio joined the Eagles in the offseason to take over their defense, The Dolphins hired Ravens’ assistant head coach Anthony Weaver to take over DC duties.
However, Fangio wasn’t the only person who left Miami. Longtime DT Christian Wilkins signed a massive deal with the Raiders to man the middle of their D-line. CB Xavien Howard was cut after a few seasons of declining play and an inflated price tag. Even 2023 standout LB Andrew Van Ginkel joined Minnesota on what would’ve been a friendly deal for Miami’s roster. However, the Dolphins wouldn’t let the losses change their goals for 2024.
Still armed with top-tier talent in the secondary between Jevon Holland and Jalen Ramsey, Miami bolstered its secondary by bringing in proven veterans like CB Kendall Fuller and safety Jordan Poyer to strengthen the back end. The Dolphins also signed LB Jordyn Brooks to help David Long Jr. man the middle.
Jaguars at Dolphins Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence: The Dolphins blitzed at the sixth-lowest rate a season ago, something that, along with the game script, gives Lawrence a path to an interesting upside. In 2023, he ranked 30th in fantasy points per blitzed pass attempt and 13th when not blitzed.
In Week 1 last season, Lawrence found himself with a different receiving core than he left the prior season with and in a game that cleared 50 total points. Sound familiar?
He finished the week as QB8. Projecting such a finish isn’t wise, but I think he finishes inside the top 15 at the position this week and that was higher than his ADP this summer. The Dolphins stack will be popular in DFS – if you wanted to take your favorite piece of their offense as a bring back to a Jaguar stack, you can be drastically different than the field despite identifying the same game as the favorable one to load up on.
Tua Tagovailoa: I don’t want to say it’s a flow chart situation when it comes to Miami’s lefty, but I’m not going to say it’s not. For his career, in games with over 25 passes thrown …
- Kickoff temperature 80+ degrees: 22.1 fantasy points per game
- Kickoff temperature <80 degrees: 14.7 fantasy points per game
For reference, QB2 last season averaged 21 PPG while QB21 averaged 14.7 PPG. We have ourselves a warm game – so you blindly plug in Tagovailoa, right?
Always a #FantasyFootball topic
Tagovailoa might get you Tua title game (three straight non-weather issues in Weeks 14-16) but Week 17 at CLE needs the be factored into the #FantasyFootball rankings process pic.twitter.com/twt4GTFvU4
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 15, 2024
I wouldn’t go that far, but when facing a defense that ranked in the bottom quarter of the league last season in pressure rate and opponent pass touchdown percentage, it’s easy to like the polarizing Dolphin as much as ever.
Running Backs
Travis Etienne Jr.: There isn’t a running back on your roster that you’re benching, so don’t get cute just because the Dolphins allowed the fifth-fewest yards per carry after contact last season. Through two years, we’ve seen Etienne do a bit of everything, and the idea behind a full-blown breakout would be him putting it all together for a magical three-month run.
Do I think that’s possible? Sure do. Believe it or not, as part of an inconsistent offense last season, he was the solo leader in rushing touchdowns of 20+ yards (the other two fantasy-viable RBs in this game and Breece Hall all tied for second). We know he can catch the ball and explode out of the backfield – we also think we know that Jacksonville will want to keep Miami off the field.
Etienne is my RB7 this week, RB1 in this game.
De’Von Achane: Last season, we saw a running back reach 17.9 PPR fantasy points on eight occasions against the Jaguars, and that includes seeing both ends of a tandem do it to close the season (Tyjae Spears and Derrick Henry). Could we see something similar on Sunday?
It’s certainly possible. At the very least, you can feel good about Achane. In 11 of 15 games to close last season, a running back cleared 13 PPR points in this matchup, and given their respective ADPs, it’s clear that Achane is the favorite to be the lead producer in this backfield.
As a rookie, Achane either saw 3+ targets or ripped off a 25+ yard run in nine of 11 games. I can preach “regression” as much as I want to, but even as a skeptic, I’m playing him without much thought.
Raheem Mostert: Despite Achane’s emergence last season, Mostert played 56.4% of the snaps, a rate that mirrored his rate from 2022. Even with Jaylen Wright now in the mix, Mostert should be on the field for roughly half of the snaps of an elite offense; while carrying the scoring role, that locks him in as an RB2 (he scored 21 times last season and had multiple red-zone touches in 13 of 15 games).
As Jonathan Taylor worked back from injury last season, the Colts gave both of their featured RBs 12+ touches, and both returned top-24 value at the position (Zack Moss was RB7 and Taylor RB21). That’s essentially how I see this playing out – anyone with a piece of this backfield should feel just fine about their prospects to open the season.
Wide Receivers
Christian Kirk: This offense sort of struggled to sustain two viable receivers last season as it was often one of them along with Evan Engram cracking fantasy lineups. I think there’s a decent chance that changes this season and that is why I have both primary WRs in Jacksonville inside my top-35 at the position.
Well, that and the projected shootout nature of this game.
We know Kirk can get open in a hurry and I think that’ll create a nice floor against a Miami team that ranked second in pressure rate when not blitzing last season (39.3%, six full percentage points above league average). Kirk likely doesn’t win you your matchup this week, though I would be surprised if he came in well under expectations and set you behind.
Brian Thomas Jr.: I’m in — all the way in. This WR rookie class got plenty of deserved attention this summer, and I actually think some of the hype actually helped us get a bargain on Thomas. With the bar set so high for Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, Thomas’ star didn’t shine as bright in terms of the media machine – that could change once the cleats hit the ground and the games count
Brian Thomas Jr.
(thread) pic.twitter.com/hJOabDQo0V
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 29, 2024
If you need the full Thomas love letter, check out either our Bold Takes or My Guys podcasts — I couldn’t choose, so he’s heavily featured in both. As for this specific week, the ‘Fins were the fifth worst red-zone defense last season, and that has me thinking Thomas could score in his NFL debut, something his LSU brethren in Ja’Marr Chase and Odell Beckham Jr. both did.
I think you can Flex him now, I’m not going to wait on a profile that lines up this well.
Tyreek Hill: Do I think he could beat Noah Lyles in a race? Probably not, but put both in pads and I think the difference is even greater in Hill’s favor than it would be in Lyles’ without pads.
There you go, those are the types of thought exercises a Hill manager needs to go through because there is no question if you’re starting him (seven top-five finishes at the position in 2023).
Jaylen Waddle: After a slow start to 2023, Waddle was fine. We saw glimpses of the ceiling with a pair of WR1 finishes with Hill active, but those were offset by four finishes outside of the top 35 at the position.
I want to bet on the talent, but this offense isn’t structured to maximize his fantasy value. As a result of some difficult matchups for receivers I’d typically have ranked ahead of him, Waddle slides into my top 20 this week, the hope being that the Dolphins can score 30-ish points and pay off all of their assets.
Waddle’s mean production is fine to take on this week because of the upside he carries whenever he is on the field.
Tight Ends
Evan Engram: I like Thomas’ potential as much as anyone, but there is no denying that, until proven otherwise, Engram is the man best suited to thrive in this Lawrence-led offense.
Engram finished 2023 with the second-most catches ever by a tight end in a single season (114), doing so in a very consistent and efficient manner. I’m projecting a little less volume but a little more scoring equity in 2024, something that could land him among the top five scorers at the position this week against the Miami defense that allowed the third-highest red-zone completion percentage last season (65.5%).
Jonnu Smith: In today’s NFL, it’s hard to be as concentrated through the air as the Dolphins were last season and that is why Smith is of interest to me long-term. I’m not playing him this week, but it’s not hard to see him working his way into a 4-6 target role and if that’s the case, he will be a viable option when the Dolphins face a stingy secondary.
I don’t roster two tight ends anywhere. If you punted the position and roster Smith, you’ve committed to him and I think that’s fine. If you punted the position and Smith is a free agent, I’d make sure to monitor his usage this weekend and potentially make a move if the snap share is stable.
WANT MORE? READ: Soppe’s Week 1 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Jaguars at Dolphins Key Stats To Know
Jaguars
Team: The Jags ranked second in percentage of punts being downed inside the 20-yard line last season (47.5%, league average: 36.6%).
QB: Trevor Lawrence averaged the fourth-most yards per pass attempt on the road last season (trailing only Brock Purdy, Tagovailoa, and Matthew Stafford).
Offense: The Jags scored on only 75% of their red-zone trips last season, the lowest rate since the 2020 Eagles.
Defense: The Jags were a top-10 unit in both third-down and goal-to-go defense in 2023.
Fantasy: Etienne was the solo leader in rushing touchdowns of 20+ yards (the other two fantasy-viable RBs in this game and Breece Hall all tied for second).
Betting: Over the past two seasons, the Jaguars cover at a 66.7% rate when the closing total is at least 45 points.
Dolphins
Team: Achane picked up 10+ yards on 21.6% of his carries, 5.4 percentage points better than any RB who had 100+ attempts last season (Christian McCaffrey was second).
QB: Tagovailoa was the least-blitzed quarterback in the league last season by a wide margin (17.9%, Patrick Mahomes was next on that list at 19.5%).
Offense: The Dolphins are famous for their motion and they utilized misdirection as well — only the Vikings had a higher play-action rate in 2023 than Miami.
Defense: The Dolphins owned the second-highest sack rate of 2023 (9%).
Fantasy: Tagovailoa’s weather splits: Kickoff temperature is 80+ degrees: 22.1 fantasy points per game … Kickoff temperature is under 80 degrees: 14.7 fantasy points per game.
Betting: The Dolphins haven’t had a losing ATS season since they went 5-9-2 ATS in 2017 under Jay Cutler.