Entering Week 3, Tyreek Hill’s fantasy football managers were nervous about the potential production of their star wide receiver. Historically, Hill has not had much success with Skylar Thompson at quarterback, and so far, in the Miami Dolphins game against the Seattle Seahawks, those fears have been realized.
In the middle of the second quarter, Hill had been targeted just twice and had not had a reception. Is Hill injured, or is this just some early struggles as he adjusts to the change from Tua Tagovailoa to Skylar Thompson under center?
Should Fantasy Managers Be Worried About Tyreek Hill?
Based on what we have seen so far this week, there is a reason to be concerned about Hill. However, we are still only talking about a couple of drives and nine throws from Thompson. Hill is the type of player who can take one reception and completely change the narrative, and there is still plenty of time for that to happen.
There is not a lot to be positive about here, as Hill has just an 18.2% target rate as things stand. Sure, it is a small sample size, but as you will see below, a reduced target rate when Thompson is at QB for the Dolphins is common for Hill.
During the Week, Hill spoke positively about what Thompson could bring to the offense, discussing his ability to extend plays.
🎥 Tyreek Hill on Skylar Thompson: “He’s a little bit faster than Tua, so I’m really excited about that. He does a great job of extending plays… he’s a real competitor.” (@MiamiDolphins) #GoFins pic.twitter.com/5zKLDOzNVQ
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) September 21, 2024
The problem for Hill is that this comes on the back of him struggling on Thursday Night Football as well. This would make it two straight games that Hill has posted underwhelming numbers.
Hill’s record with the Dolphins’ QBs not named Tua is not pretty. With Skylar Thompson throwing him the ball, he averages 1.24 yards per route and 1.66 PPR fantasy points per target. With Tua, those numbers are 3.75 yards per route and 2.12 PPR fantasy points per target.
Hill’s target share with Thompson is just 24.4%, compared to 36.3% with Tua throwing him the ball. Naturally, the Dolphins will tend to play more conservatively without Tua — and conservatively does not suit the game of a deep-threat speedster like Hill. Of course, he can do more, but it severely caps his upside.
Long term, this makes you question what Hill’s ceiling is while Tua is out. There is not a lot that fantasy managers can do because there is no benefit to trading Hill away at this point. His value is likely as low as it will be all season, and you will likely be selling low on a player with the potential to be a league winner.
In contrast, if you are looking to buy Hill in the hope he will improve over time with Thompson, then now is the time to make an offer. That is especially the case if his fantasy managers are off to a tough start, as they may be willing to sell Hill in order to get help now.