The Cleveland Browns‘ run game has struggled through the first three weeks, posting just 287 yards, which is the ninth-fewest in the NFL this season.
Unfortunately, they had to start the season without star RB Nick Chubb, who is on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. Will Chubb return in Week 4, and if not, when is he expected to be back in the lineup?
The Latest on Nick Chubb’s Injury
Chubb is not playing in Week 4 when the Browns face the Las Vegas Raiders. Since Chubb started the season on the PUP list, NFL rules require him to miss the first four games of the season.
The earliest that Chubb can return is Week 5. With that on the horizon, Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski was asked about how Chubb is progressing, and he offered an update on the running back’s status.
“We’ll see when we get to next week,” Stefanski said on Wednesday. “He’s doing well.”
While Chubb won’t be back today, Browns fans and fantasy managers did get some good news about Chubb’s recovery on Sunday morning.
NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport reported that the Browns will open Chubb’s practice window on Wednesday, which means the All-Pro running back will resume practicing in the near future.
When a player is coming off the PUP list, the team designates a three-week window where the player can return to practice. Once he begins practicing, the team has until the end of the three-week window to place him on the 53-man roster. If the player cannot return to practice or resumes practicing but isn’t healthy enough to return to the active roster by the end of the three weeks, he must stay on the PUP list for the remainder of the season.
Rapoport notes that Chubb isn’t expected to play in Week 5 when the Browns face the Washington Commanders, but “he is set to return midseason as Chubb and the Browns had hoped.”
This lines up with what we heard from Browns insider Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com, who reported that Chubb would likely miss the first half of the season.
“I think the hope was always that Chubb, on Physically Unable to Perform for at least the first four weeks, would be ready midway through the season, possibly by Week 8 against the Ravens, Week 9 against the Chargers, or perhaps after the bye in Week 10,” she said in September.
“Expectations were raised at The Greenbrier when he was sprinting and cutting so well, but the Browns pumped the brakes to give Chubb all the time he needs to recover from the second major left knee reconstruction of his career.”
Even when Chubb returns, there is no guarantee he will be thrown straight into a heavy workload. Cleveland will likely be cautious with their star RB and ease him back in.
Chubb’s Fantasy Outlook
Since Chubb isn’t returning until close to the middle of the season, it could be the fantasy playoffs before Chubb is even a usable option. One option here for fantasy managers, if they need help immediately, would be to trade Chubb to a contender now that there’s positive news about him returning to practice.
Similarly, if you’re off to a good start and looking for a stash to help you later in the season, Chubb would be an intriguing target. This would be a good time to find out whether the manager holding Chubb is willing to sell low on what will feel like a failed experiment since he won’t be back in Week 5.
When healthy, Chubb has been a consistent fantasy force, averaging 15.9-17.3 fantasy points per game from 2019-2022. Even in limited action last season, he showed elite rushing ability with 6.1 yards per carry.
From 2020 to 2022, 42 running backs carried the rock at least 300 times. Chubb had as good of a case as any of them to be considered the top rusher over that stretch (minimum 300 carries):
- First in yards per carry (5.3)
- Second in rushing yards per game (89.6)
- Third in rushing touchdowns per game (0.7)
If Chubb can return to form and give you 15-17 fantasy points per game for even eight games, he’ll be a valuable fantasy asset.
However, here’s the pessimistic scenario: At nearly 29 years old, there’s a real chance Chubb won’t return to his former self. He might end up in a timeshare or could even reaggravate his injury, making him a risky stash.
While there’s a league-winning upside, the uncertainty around his recovery and return timeline makes Chubb a risky fantasy asset.
Who Is Starting in Chubb’s Absence?
Jerome Ford has been Cleveland’s starting running back with Chubb sidelined, with veteran D’Onta Foreman mixing in occasionally as well.
After a week where his role was in question, Ford played 82.5% of the snaps last week and managed 70 yards on 13 touches.
The 25-year-old has shown enough versatility to stay on Flex radars, though the possibility of his role changing from week to week makes him a tough player to count on.
Ford has elevated in my ranks from a Flex option to an RB2, but that’s more the result of those around him falling (Rachaad White, D’Andre Swift, and Rhamondre Stevenson, to name a few).
Last season, Ford stepped up after Chubb’s devastating injury, recording 813 rushing yards, 44 receptions, 319 receiving yards, and nine scores on 248 total touches to prove he can be a productive player in this league if the opportunity presents itself.
However, Ford is the definition of a sell-high since he’ll likely lose all value on Chubb returns, especially once he shakes off the rust and resumes his typical workload. If a fantasy manager in your league wants to buy Ford based on his early-season production, you should jump at the opportunity to sell him before he loses all value.