Michael Thomas once again has fantasy football managers worrying about his availability entering Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season. After appearing on track to return this season, he hurt his hamstring during training camp and enters the weekend questionable. What is the latest regarding Thomas’ availability against the Falcons, and if he starts, can fantasy managers trust him in their starting lineups?
Update: Thomas is set to play in Week 1, per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.
Is Michael Thomas playing today, and can fantasy managers trust him in Week 1?
This week saw Thomas as a limited participant all three days on the New Orleans Saints injury report. He entered the weekend questionable with that injury, but the signs appear to be positive heading into Sunday morning. Late Saturday night, ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweeted that Thomas is expected to play in Week 1 against the Atlanta Falcons.
Sunday morning NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport confirmed that Thomas will be active this week. That news was largely expected based on reports during the week, but it is good to have confirmation early. Of course, if Thomas has any soreness this morning or suffers a setback in pregame warmups, he could yet be ruled out.
Can fantasy managers trust Thomas in Week 1?
If you go back and think about the end of the 2019 season, it is almost inconceivable that we would be asking this question by 2022. Thomas was a top-five fantasy WR and generally considered the consensus number one overall when it came to dynasty fantasy rankings. Since the end of that season, Thomas has played in just seven games, has 40 receptions, and has not found the end zone once. All of those games came in 2020, with Thomas missing the entire 2021 season with an ankle injury.
Things in New Orleans look very different from the last time we saw Thomas. Drew Brees and Sean Payton are gone, with Dennis Allen and Jameis Winston in their place. Additionally, Thomas has a better supporting cast of receivers around him now with 2022 first-round selection Chris Olave and veteran receiver Jarvis Landry. Those additions mean we may not see Thomas averaging 11-plus targets per game as he did in 2019.
Regardless, Thomas should still be the number one wide receiver in this offense. Landry’s career appears to be on the decline, and Olave is a rookie who could be eased in. Thomas should be either the top pass-catching target to enter the season or the 1B alongside RB Alvin Kamara.
What will be intriguing is what kind of explosiveness Thomas has. He averages 11.7 yards per reception in his career and has never been below the 11-yard mark. Similarly, he averages 9.1 yards per target, with 8.0 being the lowest in his career. During his career, Thomas has had an incredible catch rate at 77.6 percent, topping 80 percent in two of his last three seasons.
Should you start Thomas against the Falcons?
The expectations are that Thomas will still have a solid target share if he suits up this week. The question is really over what he can do with those targets. Can he continue to average eight-plus yards per target and 11-plus yards per reception? Historically, his elite WR value has come thanks to receiving nine-plus targets per game. If that drops slightly to the six to eight target range, can he be a starter in all scoring formats?
In terms of projections for Week 1, Underdog’s Pick ’em game has Thomas with 55.5 receiving yards and 10.95 fantasy points in half-PPR scoring. An output of 11 fantasy points in half-PPR would have seen Thomas in the WR30 region on average last year, making him a flex starter in 12-team leagues and a borderline start in 10-team leagues, depending on the number of WR and flex spots on your roster.
If we project Thomas for eight targets at his career average of 9.1 yards per target, that is in the region of 73 yards with six receptions. That would be 7.3 fantasy points in non-PPR, 10.3 in half-PPR, and 13.3 in full-PPR. Based on those numbers, Thomas is a fringe third WR option in 12-team leagues in non-PPR and half-PPR but a mid to high-end third WR option in PPR.
If you start Thomas in non-PPR and half-PPR, you are really hoping he either sees nine or 10 targets or he finds the end zone. During his career, he averages 0.46 touchdowns per game, so just under a touchdown every other game. It is certainly not impossible he finishes among the top 20 WR options in those formats, but there is a lot that needs to go right. Additionally, it is uncertain whether Thomas might be limited in terms of snaps, especially if the Saints get out to a big lead.
Therefore, in 12-team leagues, I am generally starting Thomas as a WR3 in PPR leagues. However, if I have other options I feel confident about, in non-PPR or half-PPR, then I am leaning towards a wait-and-see approach as to Thomas’ playing time and role in this offense upon his return.
