Jalen Hurts will start at QB for the Philadelphia Eagles in 2021, even if head coach Nick Sirianni refuses to officially name him the starter. Can Hurts play well enough to keep the job in 2022 and beyond?
Jalen Hurts had a strange rookie season
When Hurts was drafted, I don’t think many would have expected him to become the Eagles’ starting QB before 2020 was over.
During most of the season, he played sporadically, coming off the bench for gadget plays. However, Carson Wentz played poorly enough that Hurts wound up starting Philadelphia’s final four games. However, Hurts was himself benched during their final week in a move that caused a great deal of controversy in the Eagles’ locker room.
Throughout his complicated rookie season, Hurts totaled 1,061 passing yards, 6 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. He also added 354 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground, although Hurts’ athletic abilities aren’t the focus of today’s article.
His talents in that area aren’t in doubt. His passing, though, still needs work.
The advanced metrics show that Hurts struggled as a passer in 2020
Most people knew that Hurts wasn’t a complete product as a passer going into the NFL Draft. That’s why he wasn’t selected until late in the second round despite significant success in college. And Hurts’ 2020 advanced metrics confirm what the pre-draft evaluations suggested.
As evidence, let’s turn to the Offensive Value Metric (OVM). The OVM is a grading system created by the (Bx) Movement to evaluate players based on how much they influenced their statistics rather than the statistics themselves.
In 2020, Hurts earned a grade of 21.72. That ranked 30th out of 41 qualifying players. Put simply, Hurts was one of the least effective passers in the NFL last season.
Hurts’ OVM grades from each week of the 2020 season were inconsistent
Hurts’ overall OVM grade doesn’t quite paint the complete picture of his season. Because he only started four games in 2020, that grade represents a tiny sample size.
Hurts’ grades from each of those weeks show a staggering level of inconsistency. His worst performance came in Week 17, with a grade of just 2.02. While that grade wasn’t the lowest earned by a quarterback that week (Brandon Allen had a rough day), it was still extremely low. That passing performance makes the decision to bench Hurts during that game somewhat more understandable, although he did score a pair of touchdowns using his legs.
Hurts’ best weekly performance came in Week 15. During that game, he had a far better performance, earning a grade of 28.57. That isn’t an incredible grade — it ranked 13th among quarterbacks that week. Still, it is dramatically better than what Hurts earned two weeks later. That level of inconsistency is concerning but also provides some reason for optimism.
On the one hand, you simply can’t have your starting quarterback not contribute to your offense and expect to be a successful football team. On the other, it does show that Hurts is capable of passing at an above-average level.
Examining the advanced metrics involved in creating Hurts’ overall OVM grade
To understand why Hurts’ grades are generally so low and inconsistent, we need to look at the advanced metrics involved in calculating them. Regarding his overall grade, Hurts’ performance was something of a mixed bag.
Starting on a positive note, Hurts did consistently push the ball downfield. He threw the ball an average of 9.5 yards downfield across all of his pass attempts and 7.8 yards across his completions. Those numbers ranked second and first in the NFL, respectively.
At the same time, it’s easy to see why his grade was relatively poor. His completion percentage was the lowest among all qualifying players in 2020 (52%). That number was 3.4% lower than expected according to the NFL’s projections, the fifth-worst differential.
The fact is, you can’t be considered an average quarterback if you complete passes at such a low rate, even if those are thrown relatively far downfield.
The advanced metrics behind Hurts’ best and worst weeks
As for Hurts’ weekly grades, it only takes a quick look at the advanced metrics to explain the high level of variance between them.
The table below shows how Hurts performed on the following statistics in Weeks 15 and 17:
- His average air yards on all of his pass attempts (IAY)
- His average air yards on his completions (CAY)
- How often he threw into tight windows (AGG%)
- His completion percentage
- The completion percentage he was expected to have according to the NFL’s advanced metrics
| IAY | CAY | AGG | COMP% | COMP% +/- | |
| Week 15 | 10.3 | 7.5 | 15.9% | 54.5% | 1.3% |
| Week 17 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 10% | 35% | -16.8% |
While most of Hurts’ statistics fell across the board between the two weeks, what really dragged him down were some genuinely awful completion statistics. In both cases, he was the second-worst performer of the week, with only Brandon Allen performing worse in those two categories.
Improvement is required…quickly
Hurts clearly has plenty of room to improve as a passer. Fortunately, expectations for this Eagles team are extremely low, so Hurts doesn’t need to do much to exceed them.
That said, if he wants to avoid being replaced as the Eagles’ starting QB in the 2022 NFL Draft, he will need to play well enough that Philadelphia isn’t in a position to select a quarterback.
And despite Hurts’ struggles last season, that isn’t impossible. If Hurts becomes even a consistently mediocre passer, his rushing abilities should make him a better-than-average quarterback overall. But he definitely needs to improve dramatically for that scenario to play out.
Lucas Ellinas is a writer for Pro Football Network. You can follow him on Twitter @Lucas_Ellinas.
