The Sunday matchup of the Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens looked a lot more appealing before the season. Still, football is one of the tricky entities that allow for a wide range of possibilities. The Ravens have been absolutely decimated by injuries to seemingly the entire roster. The Colts are without Quenton Nelson, and both tackle spots have evaporated into dust with Braden Smith’s injury. But this is football, and the hopeless Lions nearly beat the Ravens just two weeks ago.
Baltimore Ravens offense vs. Indianapolis Colts defense
Indy’s defense showed up against Miami last week — can they slow down the Ravens?
Lamar Jackson vs. Colts defense
Let me get this out of the way. There is a list of quarterbacks that will inherently have the advantage over every defense they go up against. That list includes Lamar Jackson because nobody in the NFL is a more dynamic offensive weapon.
Just last week, the Denver Broncos dared him to throw the ball, and he torched their vaunted secondary, completing 62.9% of his passes despite averaging 11.6 air yards. He only rushed the ball 6 times, but he netted .36 EPA/play on said runs.
With the Colts’ defense being sufficient against the run but poor against the pass, it’s probably safe to assume Jackson airs it out a bit more again in Week 5.
Advantage:Â Ravens
Ravens weapons vs. Colts defensive backs
If I had been asked this question before the season, I would have laughed in the face of the person asking. However, the first four weeks haven’t been kind to the Colts’ secondary, and the Ravens’ weapons are performing above expectation for the first time in recent history.
Marquise Brown has performed well so far in 2021, aside from the Detroit game where he dropped what could have been 3 touchdowns. Sammy Watkins hasn’t been as efficient as Brown, but he’s still provided a second option at receiver the Ravens haven’t possessed in quite some time now. However, 4 drops in his 29 targets is a tough number to look at.
With Kenny Moore II, Xavier Rhodes, and Julian Blackmon in the secondary, you’d expect more from the Colts’ pass defense. Unfortunately, they’ve struggled mightily against the pass, ranking 27th in EPA/play (.241). Their saving grace has been a top-15 performance overall on third downs.
Still, I find it hard to believe that group will continue to struggle all season. This could be a bit of a “get right” game for the secondary.
Advantage:Â Push
Ravens offensive line vs. Colts front seven
Baltimore’s offensive line is nothing close to what it once was. Losing Ronnie Stanley to injury again and losing Orlando Brown through trade with Kansas City makes things difficult for the Ravens’ offense.
Indy’s front seven, just like the secondary, has underperformed through four games. However, they haven’t faced the murderer’s row of offensive lines the way the secondary has receiving weapons.
With Kwity Paye coming into his own and DeForest Buckner anchoring the middle, this feels like a win for Indy’s defensive line. With Darius Leonard roaming the second level, this one feels even easier.
Advantage:Â Colts
Baltimore Ravens defense vs. Indianapolis Colts offense
Baltimore’s defense is without Marcus Peters, but that hasn’t stopped Wink Martindale from being the aggressor he is. Only four teams blitz more often than the Baltimore Ravens, and I assume it’s only that low because of the loss of Peters — they’ve ranked first by a wide margin dating back to 2019.
Despite that loss, the defense ranks 12th in overall efficiency, according to DVOA. They fall two spots lower if we look at EPA/play. Justin Houston has been a massive addition to the team, and rookie Odafe Oweh is flashing as a rotational pass rusher.
The Colts’ offense has not been good in the slightest. We’ve seen flashes from Michael Pittman Jr. and Zach Pascal, but the rest of the passing attack has underwhelmed. DVOA pegs them as the 26th-ranked offense, and they rank 23rd in EPA/play and 25th in success rate on offense.
But the worst part is the Colts are +4 in turnover differential through four games, yet they’re still 1-3.
Carson Wentz vs. Ravens defense
I worried about Wentz in the Reich offense I’d seen over the past few seasons. There was a lot of quick game involved, and that simply is not Carson’s Wentz’s strength. He’s a do-or-die playmaker that will hold the ball and try to make a play, even as the world collapses around him.
That’s not a good combination with an offensive line devoid of both Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith. No matter how you slice it, it’s been a struggle for the quarterback looking to revitalize his career.
The Ravens are going to send the house. They will try to make Carson Wentz uncomfortable and force him into mistakes. A few years ago, I would have said that’s foolish because he once flourished under pressure. Now, the Ravens would be smart to attack Wentz and try to collapse the pocket.
Advantage:Â Ravens
Colts weapons vs. Ravens defensive backs
Pascal and Pittman are the two receivers that can really do damage for the Colts, but with Marlon Humphrey on the opposite side, that doesn’t seem like enough. However, this could be a big Nyheim Hines game, given Baltimore’s linebackers and safeties not named Chuck Clark have struggled a bit so far in 2021.
Advantage:Â Push
Colts offensive line vs. Ravens front seven
Honestly, I don’t even want to talk about this. I couldn’t say it better than Zach Hicks.
Fisher’s main issue right now is his anchor, so going against a very good speed-power guy in Houston is tough. Davenport’s issue is flexibility and athleticism so naturally he’s facing the most athletic DE in the league lol
— Zach Hicks (@ZachHicks2)
And that’s not even accounting for Calais Campbell, who has 16 total pressure so far in 2021 but hasn’t registered a sack. There’s a chance that changes in Week 5.
Advantage:Â Ravens
Betting line and game prediction
The Ravens are currently a 7-point favorite against the Colts. To cover, the Colts are going to have to make this an ugly game. To win the game, they’re going to need a few turnovers against Jackson and the Ravens’ offense, and they must be better on third down and in the red zone, where they rank 23rd and 30th, respectively.
In the end, there were a few pushes in the positional matchups, but the quarterback comparison skews everything toward the Ravens. It’ll take a lousy performance from Jackson to overcome their deficiencies.
Prediction:Â Ravens 31, Colts 20
