The Indianapolis Colts have been one of the best stories in the NFL over the past 10 weeks, and they face off Saturday against the Arizona Cardinals. The latter has dropped two straight despite Kyler Murray’s return from injury. The NFL’s most consistent team through 13 weeks just lost handily to a one-win Lions team. Meanwhile, the Colts beat the Bill Belichick-led Patriots despite only completing 5 passes in the entire game. Here are the matchups to watch in the Colts vs. Cardinals Week 16 battle.
Indianapolis Colts offense vs. Arizona Cardinals defense
Despite possessing only a mediocre passing attack, the Colts’ offense is a well-oiled machine. There is variance in advanced metrics on all occasions. Sometimes, that variance is wide-ranging. Sometimes, a site believes a team ranks in the top five in efficiency, while others rank them closer to 20. That variance is non-existent for the Colts.
They rank sixth in EPA/play, sixth in weighted DVOA, sixth in offensive yards per drive, sixth in points per drive, and, you guessed it, sixth in drive success rate. That sort of parity is pure coincidence, but it doesn’t take from the hilarity of the phenomena.
Their rushing attack isn’t the most successful on a down-to-down basis, but they rank fourth in the league there. Jonathan Taylor’s big-play ability vaults them onto the throne of rushing EPA/play, and by quite a margin. In fact, they nearly triple the efficiency of the next-best team. If their 0.095 EPA/play mark holds, it’ll be a team’s most efficient rushing performance since the 2011 Panthers ridiculous mark of 0.117. From a points added perspective, their rushing attack is more effective than passing. That’s incredible in the modern NFL for a team that’s rattled off eight wins in their last 11 games.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals rank third in EPA/play defending the run. They also rank eighth in rushing DVOA. However, they often allow successful runs, ranking 23rd in success rate against the ground game. They are also quite potent against the pass, ranking fourth in dropback EPA and 10th in success rate.
Carson Wentz vs. Cardinals defense
Wentz has done a fantastic job taking care of the football in 2021. He’s only thrown 6 INTs and lost 4 fumbles, which is a far cry from where we were with Wentz just 12 months ago.
He’s not asked to do too much. It’s similar to Mac Jones in New England, albeit accomplished differently. Yet, there is a looming issue. At some point, just as Jones had to attempt to carry the team against the Colts, Wentz will have to try to carry this offense with his arm down the stretch.
We’ve seen him do it this season, particularly during a Week 4-9 stretch where he was efficient. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have played well this season defensively, but their roster doesn’t necessarily strike fear in the hearts of opposing quarterbacks.
Advantage:Â Push
Colts skill-position players vs. Cardinals secondary
Michael Pittman Jr. has established himself as the Colts’ version of Alshon Jeffery for Wentz. However, he does it in a more explosive package. Jack Doyle doesn’t consistently have big games but poses a threat this offense needs over the middle.
Nevertheless, the passing attack revolves around Pittman and Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis’ incredible backup RB that is an absolute gem as a receiving option. Taylor has also proven to us media scouting idiots that despite not catching many passes at Wisconsin, he can do it as a pro and be quite electric when he does.
Byron Murphy is a scrappy cornerback, but the size and physicality of Pittman pose a bit of a matchup problem for the 5-foot-11, 190-pound DB. Jalen Thompson and Budda Baker make for an impressive safety tandem, but Marco Wilson is a rookie going through first-year bumps.
Advantage:Â Push
Colts offensive line vs. Cardinals defensive front
This is the fun part. The Colts’ offensive line is outstanding, but one glaring weakness could wreck the game for their passing attack. Eric Fisher against Chandler Jones could change the game. Fisher struggles with power, and Chandler Jones uses his length and explosion to convert speed to power incredibly well. Indianapolis must send help Fisher’s way.
Otherwise, this is a chalk matchup. The Colts dominate across the line from left guard to right tackle, and Fisher is a fine run-blocking left tackle.
There simply isn’t a ton of beef on the Arizona interior, and the linebacker play is sufficient but not difference-making. Jordan Phillips and Corey Peters work hard to let the linebackers flow, but the Colts specialize in people-moving.
Advantage:Â Colts
Arizona Cardinals offense vs. Indianapolis Colts defense
The Cardinals’ offense is undeniably talented, but they struggled last week against the Detroit Lions, and their young quarterback hasn’t looked like himself since he returned from his ankle injury. Still, they rank as a top-10 offense in the NFL by nearly every advanced metric you can find.
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Meanwhile, the Colts’ defense ranks surprisingly low given their reputation. They’re tied with Dallas for the most takeaways in the NFL, but their efficiency as a unit leaves a lot to be desired. They rank 12th in EPA/play against, 19th in success rate, 13th in points allowed per drive, and 12th in defensive success rate. DVOA ranks their defense seventh overall, which matches better with how we perceive them, given how good they are at stealing the ball from opposing offenses.
Kyler Murray vs. Colts defense
Murray is one of the select few with an inherent advantage over any defense he faces, given his unique ability to look like a toddler running from their parent after swiping another candy cane from the counter after their mom repeatedly told them, “NO!”
But there is a catch. When I watched Murray and did some studying earlier this season, I concluded that the only thing that could consistently stop him from great success was himself. Unfortunately, that’s the Murray we’ve seen the past two weeks. So, although his skill set makes him an advantage, his decision-making takes that advantage away at times.
That is true in theory because of the matchup. The Colts are third in the league in interceptions, and they lead the NFL with 14 recovered fumbles.
Advantage:Â Push
Cardinals skill-position players vs. Colts secondary
A.J. Green pulled a ringside Undertaker move, popping his upper body up out of the casket he rode into Arizona on, giving everyone around him a Texas Chainsaw Massacre style jump scare. Christian Kirk is having his most productive season as a receiver by far, and Rondale Moore is one of the most dangerous ball carriers in the NFL, even as a rookie.
The Zach Ertz trade was an unbelievable move by Steve Keim. He’s been productive for the Cardinals’ passing attack. Last week, Ertz saw his most targets since 2019. Arizona also boasts two pass-catching backs in Chase Edmonds and James Conner.
Losing Julian Blackmon hurt the Colts’ pass defense significantly, but Xavier Rhodes also reverted to looking like a nearly 32-year-old cornerback in 2021. Rock Ya-Sin, possibly the best name in football history, has improved in Year 3 after having a down sophomore season. That could be the difference in this game.
Advantage:Â Cardinals
Cardinals offensive line vs. Colts defensive front
It also might not make much difference if Murray doesn’t have time or hallways to throw into. DeForest Buckner, another outstanding name, isn’t just one of the best interior defenders in the league — he’s also 6-foot-7 with over 34-inch arms.
Unfortunately for Indianapolis, Kemoko Turay is out for the game. He hasn’t played many snaps this season, but his athleticism could have been helpful against Murray’s ability to create on the hoof. Kwity Paye and Al-Quadin Muhammad will have the all-important mission of maintaining the pocket and collapsing it, not allowing easy escapes for the league’s Energizer Bunny.
D.J. Humphries survives on Murray’s blindside, and Justin Pugh suffices beside him. Max Garcia and Josh Jones in no way hold a candle to Buckner, who could very well press for double-digit pressures this week.
Advantage:Â Push
Betting odds and game prediction
- Spread:Â Cardinals -1 (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline:Â Cardinals -120, Colts +100
- Total:Â 48.5
This should be one of the best games of the week. If Arizona plays to their potential, they stand a good chance to win the contest. Their offense is that talented. However, with their current form compared to Indy’s, I don’t think there’s value in the Cardinals to cover or their moneyline.
Colts vs. Cardinals Prediction: Colts 31, Cardinals 29
